Blackhawks vs Penguins tips: Chicago backers pile in despite horror start

Wednesday morning brings one of the season's more head-scratching market moves when the Chicago Blackhawks host the Pittsburgh Penguins at 11:00 am AEDT. The Blackhawks sit dead last on the ladder with a 1-5-0 record, conceding more than four goals per game, yet punters have steamed into them overnight — Chicago firmed from 2.35 to 2.15 while the Penguins drifted from 1.6 to 1.7. The visitors arrive in the middle of the pack at 3-2-1, outscoring opponents by five goals across six starts, but the market is telling a different story to what the form guide suggests.

Pittsburgh's defensive structure (2.67 goals against per game, 94.12 per cent penalty kill) and 50.2 per cent Corsi share paint them as the more complete side, while Chicago are leaking shots at a three-to-one clip (182 against, 126 for) and rank 31st in both expected-goals differential and save percentage. The question for our nhl predictions is whether that late money on the home side reflects inside knowledge or collective wishful thinking from United Center faithful.

Who takes it in regulation or overtime?

The ladder tells the tale in black and white: Pittsburgh sit 13th with seven points from six outings, Chicago languish 31st with two. The Penguins are averaging 3.5 goals per game against the Blackhawks' two, and their 21 goals for already eclipse Chicago's 12 by nearly double. On special teams, Pittsburgh convert at 20 per cent on the power play and kill penalties at an elite 94.12 clip, while the Blackhawks manage 7.14 per cent with the man advantage and a porous 68.75 kill rate.

Possession metrics favour the visitors as well — Pittsburgh's 50.2 per cent Corsi share suggests they're controlling play more often than not, whereas Chicago's 43.3 figure means they're on their heels for the majority of shifts. The expected-goals ledger (13.6 for Pittsburgh against 13.0 against; 10.1 for Chicago against 16.0 against) underlines the gap in quality chances at both ends.

Chicago's leading scorers — Anton Frondell with four points, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore with three apiece — have done their bit in limited ice time, but the Penguins counter with Evgeni Malkin and Thomas Novak both on five points and Samuel Girard quarterbacking from the blue line with five assists. That top-line depth gives Pittsburgh multiple avenues to goal, while the Blackhawks rely heavily on a thin rotation up front.

The Penguins drift to 1.7 might look generous on paper, but the late firming on Chicago from 2.35 to 2.15 suggests someone sees value in the home dogshot. Whether that's injury news, line shuffles, or simply contrarian appetite remains unclear. We're inclined to trust the season-long body of work over a single overnight move, but the market rarely lies for long.

Can the Penguins cover the puck line?

Pittsburgh lay 1.5 goals at 1.45, asking them to win by two or more in a building where defensive structure has been optional for the home side. Chicago concede 4.33 per game and rank last in expected goals against, so a multi-goal Penguins win fits the script — but the Blackhawks have shown they can find the net in spurts (Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore have two goals apiece), and even bad teams pinch one or two on home ice.

The Penguins' three wins this season came by margins we can't confirm from the pack, so we're left weighing their 3.5 goals per game against Chicago's leaky defence and asking whether Pittsburgh's road discipline holds up. The 1.5-goal spread is never a gift in the NHL, where empty-net chaos and late power plays swing margins in a heartbeat, but the underlying numbers point toward a visitors' rout if goaltending cooperates.

We'd want more evidence of Chicago's recent home form to argue the other side — as it stands, the ladder gulf and goal-differential chasm make the Penguins puck line a live chance for those willing to lay the short quote.

Over or under the 6.5-goal line?

The total sits at 6.5 goals, and both sides of the ledger have a case. Pittsburgh average 3.5 per game, Chicago 2.0 — that's 5.5 combined if both hit their means. But the Blackhawks concede 4.33, the Penguins 2.67, and when you marry Chicago's offensive output to Pittsburgh's scoring rate you land closer to seven or eight on a good night for the visitors.

Chicago's 68.75 per cent penalty kill invites power-play chances, and Pittsburgh convert at 20 per cent — every five-on-four opportunity tilts the total northward. The Blackhawks' save percentage of 85.7 per cent ranks near the bottom of the league, so even mediocre shooting nights can balloon scorelines when the goaltending leaks.

The under at 1.85 hinges on Pittsburgh playing a road trap and Chicago failing to generate much beyond their top line. The over at 1.95 banks on the Penguins piling up chances against a defence that's conceded 26 in six starts and a penalty kill that's been torched for five goals already this season. We lean toward the fireworks, but six-and-a-half is a steep hill when one side might only muster two.

Same Game Multi board

The Same Game Multi market offers a few narrative-friendly combos if you're keen to stack outcomes. Penguins to win, Penguins -1.5 puck line and Sidney Crosby to score a goal pays 5.00 — a tidy treble that asks Pittsburgh to blow the doors off and Crosby to do what he does. The 6.75 quad of Penguins -1.5, Crosby goal, and Penguins to win the first period leans on an early statement from the visitors, while the 51.00 long shot of Blackhawks -0.5 (Chicago win or draw in regulation), Under 5.5 goals, and Crosby first goal is pure chaos theory for those who believe in market miracles.

We're not tipping multis as standalone plays, but if you fancy a story that involves the Penguins laying the lumber early and Crosby finding twine, the 6.75 or 6.50 tickets aren't without merit given the pack's underlying numbers.