The Dallas Stars have hit their straps at American Airlines Center, reeling off five consecutive victories as they host the Montreal Canadiens on Friday morning at 11:00 am AEDT. Both sides enter this clash coming off wins — Dallas thumped the New York Islanders 6–3 on Monday, while Montreal edged past Winnipeg 2–1 on the road the same day — but it's the Stars' red-hot home form that shapes the narrative here.
Dallas sit third in the Central Division with a 7-3-1 record and have found their groove in front of their own crowd, winning their last three at home by a combined six goals. Montreal's 6-3-2 mark has them fifth in the Atlantic, but the Canadiens' defensive fragility — conceding 3.27 goals per game this season — looms large against a Stars side averaging 2.82 goals for and just 1.73 against.
The Canadiens have shown they can score, averaging 3.09 goals per game, but their road to this point has been rockier. They've split their last five with three wins and two losses, and their away form has been a mixed bag. Dallas, meanwhile, have won five on the spin overall, including road victories over Chicago and Colorado, and have yet to taste defeat at home in their last three starts.
Who will win?
Dallas have been near-perfect in their last five outings, winning all five by an average margin of 2 goals per game. Their most recent result — a 6–3 dismantling of the Islanders on Monday — was their most emphatic yet, with Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson leading a potent attack. Over that five-game stretch, the Stars have averaged 3.8 goals for and just 1.8 against, a testament to their balance at both ends of the rink.
Montreal's last five have been less convincing. They've won three and lost two, averaging 3.4 goals for but conceding 2.8 against. Their most recent win over Winnipeg was a low-scoring 2–1 affair on the road, a grind rather than a statement. The Canadiens' defensive numbers all season — a save percentage of .877 and 3.27 goals against per game — suggest they'll struggle to contain a Stars side that has found the net at will lately.
The ladder tells a similar story. Dallas sit 12th overall with a .682 points percentage, while Montreal are 15th at .636. The Stars have allowed just 19 goals in 11 games this season, the stingiest defensive record in this matchup, and they boast the higher Corsi percentage (53.9% versus Montreal's 56.2%), though the Canadiens edge possession slightly. On the power play, Dallas convert at 18.52% compared to Montreal's 12.5%, and the Stars' penalty kill (92.31%) is vastly superior to the Canadiens' 82.61%.
The head-to-head history offers limited recent context, but the current form line and the gulf in defensive solidity point to Dallas as the side in better shape. The Stars are priced at shorter odds to win, and with five straight victories in the bank — all five coming in their last five starts — they carry real momentum into this contest.
Tipped at $1.70 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Dallas Stars
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Jason RobertsonLW | 8G 10A |
| Mikko RantanenRW | 8G 10A |
| Roope HintzLW | 6G 7A |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Cole CaufieldRW | 10G 4A |
| Lane HutsonD | 3G 11A |
| Nick SuzukiC | 5G 7A |
Can Montreal cover the spread?
Without a line market available for this matchup, we'll skip the handicap debate and focus on what the raw numbers tell us. Dallas have been winning by an average of 2 goals across their last five, while Montreal's three wins in that span came by an average margin of 1.7 goals, with their two losses by 1 goal each. The Stars' defensive edge and home dominance suggest they're built to win comfortably here, but the absence of a line market means punters will need to weigh that against the straight win price.
Our nhl picks lean heavily on the Stars' current form and their ability to shut down opponents at home. Montreal will need to find a level they haven't consistently shown this season to trouble a Dallas side that has conceded just 2.3 goals per game across their last three home starts.
The verdict
Dallas are flying, Montreal are fragile, and the Stars' home rink has been a fortress. Five straight wins, a miserly goals-against average, and a special-teams edge make Dallas the logical choice here. The Canadiens can score, but they can't stop anyone — and that's a recipe for defeat against a side as well-drilled as the Stars. We're backing Dallas to make it six in a row and extend their perfect home run to four.