Kings v Senators tips: Pair of strugglers hunt bounce-back at crypto.com Arena

Friday arvo hockey at crypto.com Arena shapes as a proper coin-flip. The Los Angeles Kings and Ottawa Senators both limped through Wednesday night — the Kings falling 1–2 to Chicago away from home, the Senators copping a 1–4 hiding in Vegas. Now they reconvene at 1:00 pm AEDT with identical head-to-head prices (both $1.90) and plenty to prove.

The Kings sit 31st on the ladder with a 3-6-2 record and eight points from eleven outings, seventh in the Pacific. The Senators own a healthier 8-5-0 sheet and sixteen points, good enough for ninth overall and third in the Atlantic. On paper, Ottawa should carry the edge — but the market isn't convinced, and neither should punters be when recent form tells a messier yarn.

Who gets off the canvas?

Los Angeles has won three of its last five, all on the road: a 5–2 result over Washington on 21 October, a 3–2 squeaker against the Islanders two nights later, and a 6–3 trouncing of the Rangers on 27 October. Sandwiched around those victories are a 1–3 loss to New Jersey and Wednesday's Chicago setback. Across that five-game stretch the Kings have averaged 3.2 goals for and 2.4 against, with wins by an average margin of 2.3 and defeats by 1.5.

Ottawa's recent road is bumpier. The Sens have won two and lost three over their last five, the wins both at home: 5–1 over Florida on 22 October and a wild 7–4 shootout with the Rangers five days ago. The losses — 1–3 to Philadelphia, 2–6 to San Jose at home, and Wednesday's Vegas debacle — have been heavier, averaging a three-goal deficit. Overall the Senators are posting 3.2 goals per game in that sample but conceding 3.6, and their away form is particularly suspect (two of the three defeats came on the road).

Season-long numbers paint the Kings as a side leaking goals (3.36 per game against versus 2.55 for) with a save percentage of .883 and a 63.64 per cent penalty kill that ranks near the bottom of the league. Ottawa fares slightly better — 2.85 goals for per game, 2.92 against, .888 save percentage — but the Senators' power play sits at just 12.73 per cent and their Corsi (47.8) suggests they're being outshot most nights.

With no head-to-head history in the pack and both sides stumbling in, the market's level pricing makes sense. Artemi Panarin leads the Kings' scoring with seven goals and four assists, while Tim Stützle paces Ottawa with eight goals and eight helpers. Neither goaltending corps inspires confidence, and neither special-teams unit looks capable of seizing control. The head-to-head market is a true toss-up — lean toward the home ice if you must, but there's no statistical edge screaming through the data.

Puck-line value

The Kings are 1.5-goal favourites on the puck line, priced at $1.35 to cover, with Ottawa getting the 1.5-goal start at $3.00. That's a hefty underlay on the home side and a tempting overlay on the visitors, especially given recent margins.

Los Angeles has won its last three victories by margins of 3, 1, and 3 goals — an average of 2.3 — comfortably clearing a 1.5-goal line in two of those three. But the Kings' two defeats in that sample came by just 1.5 goals on average, and Wednesday's 1–2 loss to Chicago wouldn't have covered the spread had they been laying. Ottawa's wins have come by an average of 3.5 goals (including that 7–4 Rangers demolition), but their losses have been ugly — averaging three goals the other way.

The Senators' road record is the clincher here. Away from home they've been carved up more often than not, and at crypto.com Arena the Kings have a chance to impose their will early. Still, laying 1.5 at $1.35 offers minimal reward for the risk of a one-goal game. The value sits with Ottawa +1.5 at $3.00 — a get-out clause if the Sens can keep it tight or sneak a result outright. It's not a confident play, but the price compensates for the uncertainty.

Total goals: the over case builds

The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over at $1.75 and the under at $2.00. Both sides have been posting 3.2 goals per game over their last five, and both have been leaking goals at a rate (2.4 for LA, 3.6 for Ottawa) that hints at open hockey.

Combine those averages and you land on 5.6 goals per game between the two sides — a whisker over the quoted line. The Kings' expected-goals numbers (20.7 for, 23.1 against over the season) and Ottawa's (25.5 for, 25.2 against) suggest both teams generate chances and concede them in equal measure. The save percentages (.883 for LA, .888 for Ottawa) are well below league average, and neither penalty kill inspires confidence (Kings 63.64 per cent, Senators 77.78 per cent).

Wednesday's results — 1–2 and 1–4 — were low-scoring, but both sides had been in shootouts earlier in the week (Kings 6–3, Senators 7–4). The under is marginal favourite at $2.00, but the over at $1.75 looks the sharper play when you weigh up the defensive frailties on both benches. Six goals feels more likely than four when two struggling outfits meet with little to lose.

Same Game Multi angles

If you're chasing a bigger return, the Same Game Multi board offers a few priced combos worth a squiz. Senators -1.5 puck line combined with Tim Stützle to score first is paying $17.00 — a long-odds play that banks on Ottawa's road wobbles magically disappearing and their leading scorer finding the opener. More realistic is Senators to win paired with Claude Giroux to score a goal at $6.25, though Giroux isn't among the pack's listed leading scorers and that combo still requires Ottawa to reverse recent road form.

On the Kings' side, a home win with Over 5.5 goals and Alex Laferriere to score is $6.75. Laferriere has two goals and seven assists this season and sits second in the Kings' scoring summaries, so the goal leg isn't outlandish. Pairing it with the over makes sense given the defensive numbers. A simpler Kings win with Laferriere to score pays $4.75 if you want to duck the total question altogether.