Friday morning at Canadian Tire Centre sets up as a proper bounce-back spot for the Ottawa Senators, who'll be keen to shake off the sting of a 7–2 drubbing at the hands of St Louis two nights ago. The puck drops at 10:00 am AEDT, and the yarn here is straightforward: a 5–1 Senators outfit sitting third on the ladder against a 2–3 Islanders side ranked 24th, yet the visitors arrive with momentum after edging Vancouver 3–2 in their last start.
Ottawa's stellar start to the season — five wins from six — took a hit on Wednesday when the Blues ran riot on home ice, but before that shellacking the Senators had reeled off three straight wins, including a tidy 4–1 road result against New Jersey. The Islanders, meanwhile, have been less consistent: two wins and three losses through five outings, though they've won both games at home in their last three and carry a dangerous attack averaging 3.2 goals per game overall.
The head-to-head ledger is empty in the pack, so we're reading form lines and season numbers to frame this one. Both clubs have shown they can score — Ottawa at three goals per game, New York at 3.2 — but the Senators' 5–1 record and ladder position tell the tale of a side that's found winning ways early. The question is whether one blowout loss derails that momentum or galvanises a group eager to prove Wednesday was an aberration.
Who takes the match?
The Senators own the superior season record and the home deck, and the market reflects that: Ottawa are priced as favourites, with the Islanders quoted at longer odds. Over their last five starts overall, Ottawa have gone 3–2, averaging 2.8 goals for and conceding 3.2 against; the Islanders sit at 2–2 across their last four, posting three goals per outing but leaking 3.3.
When we tighten the lens to home form, the Senators have played three of their last five at Canadian Tire Centre, winning two and losing the most recent. In those three games they've averaged 2.3 goals for and 3.3 against — not vintage defensive numbers, though the two wins came by one-goal margins before Wednesday's outlier. The Islanders, by contrast, have played all their recent matches on home ice and posted a 2–1 record at their own barn in the last three, averaging 3.3 for and 2.7 against in that sample.
Coming off that 2–7 defeat to St Louis, the Senators will be under pressure to respond in front of their own fans. The Islanders, having just scraped past Vancouver 3–2 at home, arrive with a sliver of confidence but face a tougher test on the road against a side that's won five of six this season. Ottawa's power play has been anaemic at 13.79 per cent, well behind New York's 25 per cent strike rate, but the Senators' penalty kill sits at 80 per cent compared to the visitors' 84.21.
The underlying numbers offer some nuance: Ottawa's Corsi percentage of 44.5 lags New York's 47.3, suggesting the Islanders control more of the shot share, yet the Senators have turned fewer chances into more wins. Save percentage tilts Ottawa's way at .925 versus .904, a margin that could prove decisive in a tight contest. With no recent meetings to lean on, our nhl picks for Friday morning hinge on ladder position, home advantage, and the gut feel that a 5–1 team will shake off one horror show faster than a 2–3 side can sustain road form.
Tipped at $1.70 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Ottawa Senators
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Tim StützleLW | 9G 12A |
| Drake BathersonC | 9G 9A |
| Shane PintoC | 5G 6A |
New York Islanders
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Bo HorvatC | 7G 7A |
| Matthew SchaeferD | 4G 10A |
| Brayden SchennC | 4G 5A |
Same Game Multi watch
Same Game Multi markets are available for this clash, and punters chasing a parlay can explore combinations on the board. Without priced combos in the pack to lean on, the play is to build around the fundamentals: the Senators' class advantage and the Islanders' offensive spark. Both sides have shown they can find the net — Ottawa's Tim Stützle leading the charge with five goals and five assists, New York's Bo Horvat on four goals and two helpers — so any SGM should factor in goal-scoring potential from both attacks.
Keep an eye on the specials menu for player props and multi-leg offerings, but remember that parlays amplify risk. The safest angle remains the single-market selections where the form line and ladder position align.
The Next2Go verdict
This shapes as a test of character for Ottawa, and we're backing them to deliver the response their season start deserves. The Islanders will make them work — New York's shot metrics and goal-scoring rate say they're no easybeat — but the ladder gap and home advantage tilt the scales toward the Senators. One blowout loss doesn't erase five wins from six, and the price on offer reflects a market that still respects Ottawa's credentials.
We're leaning toward the home side to collect the two points, framing it as a value proposition rather than a formality. The Islanders' resilience at home hasn't translated on the road yet this season, and the Senators have enough firepower and defensive support to make Friday morning a winning one at Canadian Tire Centre.