Ottawa Senators v San Jose Sharks tips: Celebrini's Sharks eye upset at Canadian Tire Centre

The Ottawa Senators welcome the San Jose Sharks to Canadian Tire Centre on Friday, 23 October at 10:00 am AEDT, with both sides carrying contrasting narratives into this one. Ottawa sit tenth on the ladder with a 6-3-0 record and twelve points, but they're coming off a 1–3 loss to Philadelphia away from home on Sunday. San Jose, meanwhile, are nineteenth with a 4-4-1 mark and nine points, yet they arrive on the back of a 4–3 win over Montreal on the road just two days ago — a classic quick turnaround that can test the legs or sharpen the belief.

The Senators have averaged 2.4 goals for and 2.8 against across their last five outings, with wins over the Islanders, Devils, and Predators punctuated by that Philadelphia setback and a 2–7 home thumping by St Louis. The Sharks' last five reads 2.8 for and 3.6 against, including that Montreal victory, a pair of one-goal defeats to Detroit and Toronto, and a 3–6 home loss to Boston. Macklin Celebrini has been the creative force for the visitors, leading the team with three goals and eight assists, while Tim Stützle paces Ottawa with five goals and seven helpers.

There's no recent head-to-head history in the pack to lean on, so we're weighing ladder position, form trajectory, and where the market sits. Ottawa are priced at 1.6, San Jose at 2.35, and that spread reflects the home team's superior record and the Sharks' defensive leakage on the road.

Who takes the two points?

The Senators hold the better season numbers — 22 goals for and 23 against in nine games, a .903 save percentage, and a 44.8 Corsi share — but that last start in Philadelphia still stings. They managed just one goal on the road and couldn't translate their shot volume into scoreboard pressure. At home, they've posted a 2-1 record across their last three at Canadian Tire Centre: the narrow win over the Islanders and the Nashville victory were both tight one-goal affairs, while the Blues blowout was an outlier five-goal loss. The home scoring average over those three sits at 2.3 for and 3.3 against, with wins by an average margin of one goal.

San Jose's season save percentage of .877 and a goals-against average of 3.44 tell the story of a side that can score — they average 2.44 per game, matching Ottawa's output — but leak chances at the other end. Their 49 per cent Corsi share is actually healthier than Ottawa's, and their power play clicks at 20 per cent compared to the Senators' 12.82. Celebrini, Will Smith, and Ivar Stenberg have shouldered the creative load, and that Montreal win showed they can find a way even on weary legs.

The market has Ottawa as clear favourites, and the form book supports it: the Senators have won two-thirds of their games, while the Sharks sit at .500. That said, San Jose have pinched wins on the road this season — the Nashville and Montreal results prove they can travel — and Ottawa's defensive numbers at home aren't impenetrable. We're leaning toward the home side on class and ladder position, but the price on the Sharks carries a whisper of value if you believe the quick turnaround won't blunt their confidence.

The final word

This shapes as a test of Ottawa's ability to rebound from that Philadelphia disappointment and re-establish some home-ice authority. The Senators have the better record, the better save percentage, and the luxury of an extra day's rest since their last outing. San Jose's 4–3 win over Montreal will give them belief, but backing up on the road against a side with playoff ambitions is a tall ask when you're conceding north of three goals a game.

We're tipping the Senators to get the job done in regulation or overtime, banking on their home crowd, their superior defensive structure, and the class of Stützle and Drake Batherson to make the difference. The Sharks have shown they can score in bunches — witness that four-goal haul in Montreal — so we're not expecting a shutout, but Ottawa should have enough firepower and defensive discipline to collect the two points. For our nhl tips, we're backing the home side to edge a contest that could swing on special teams and goaltending down the stretch.