Utah Mammoth v Edmonton Oilers tips: Mammoth eye sweep after Friday's road win

The Utah Mammoth welcome the Edmonton Oilers to Delta Center on Sunday, 18 October at 1:00 pm AEDT — a quick turnaround after the two sides met just 48 hours earlier. Friday's encounter in Edmonton saw the Mammoth claim a 4–2 victory, and now they'll look to complete the weekend sweep on home ice.

Utah sit third in the Central Division with a 6-2-0 record, while the Oilers — despite their strong 5-1-1 start — are coming off that loss and will be eager to square the ledger. The Mammoth have won four of their last five overall, including three straight away from home before Wednesday's narrow 5–4 home win over Toronto. Edmonton had rattled off three consecutive victories before running into Utah on Friday night.

With Nick Schmaltz (6G 5A) and Clayton Keller (3G 8A) leading the Mammoth's balanced attack and Connor McDavid (4G 14A) orchestrating Edmonton's offence, this Sunday afternoon rematch shapes as a fascinating clash of styles and momentum.

Who takes the points?

The Mammoth enter as favourites on the head-to-head market, and the form line supports that standing. Utah have won four of their last five — including Friday's 4–2 result in Edmonton — and they've done it with a potent attack averaging 3.8 goals across that stretch while conceding 3.2. Their wins have come by an average margin of two goals, showcasing their ability to control games when they get in front.

Coming off that Friday victory, the Mammoth will be buoyed by the knowledge they've already solved the Oilers once this weekend. Dylan Guenther (4G 5A) has been a threat on the right wing, complementing the playmaking of Schmaltz and Keller, and Utah's 37.5 per cent power-play conversion rate ranks among the league's best early in the season.

Edmonton, meanwhile, are licking their wounds after that 2–4 home defeat — their first regulation loss of the campaign. The Oilers had been firing, averaging 3.5 goals across their previous four outings and winning three of those by an average margin of 2.7 goals. Leon Draisaitl (5G 7A) and Evan Bouchard (6G 9A) have supported McDavid's elite production, but Friday's loss exposed some cracks, particularly on the penalty kill where they sit at just 68.18 per cent.

The only previous meeting between these sides came in that October clash — a 4–2 Utah win — so there's no deep historical pattern to lean on, but the Mammoth have shown they can handle Edmonton's firepower. Playing at home where they posted a 5–4 win over Toronto in their last Delta Center outing, Utah look the side more likely to capitalise on the quick turnaround.

Can the Mammoth cover the puck line?

The Mammoth are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line, which asks them to win by two or more. That's a big ask in a tight divisional rematch, but their recent form suggests it's not out of reach. Across their last five games, Utah's four wins came by margins of two, one, three, and two goals — so they've shown they can pull away when clicking.

Friday's 4–2 result was a two-goal margin, and that came in Edmonton's building where the Oilers had been formidable. Now back on home ice, where the Mammoth are yet to lose in regulation this season (1-0-0 in their last five at Delta Center), they'll fancy their chances of putting together another complete performance.

Edmonton's average loss margin is just two goals across their limited sample, but that single regulation defeat was Friday's affair — and it came in a game where the Oilers managed only two tallies against a Utah defence that has been stout, allowing 2.63 goals per game overall. The Mammoth's 56.9 per cent Corsi percentage speaks to their territorial dominance, and if they can tilt the ice again, a two-goal cushion is within reach.

That said, the Oilers' offensive firepower can't be dismissed. They're scoring 4.43 goals per game — the highest rate in this matchup — and McDavid's ability to conjure chances from nothing keeps any opponent honest. A puck-line play on Utah requires belief they can shut down that top line and capitalise on Edmonton's weaker penalty kill, which sits well below league average.

How many goals hit the board?

The total is set at 6.5 goals, and the evidence leans slightly towards the over. Utah are averaging 3.8 goals for and 3.2 against across their last five, which combines for seven goals per game. Edmonton's recent sample is similar — 3.5 for and 2.0 against — totalling 5.5, though that's skewed by Friday's lower-scoring affair.

The lone head-to-head meeting produced six goals (4–2 Utah), landing right on the fence. That game was played in Edmonton, where defensive systems can sometimes tighten up early in the season, but Sunday's clash at Delta Center could open up given both sides' attacking intent and the quick turnaround potentially leading to tired legs defensively.

Utah's power play is clicking at 37.5 per cent, and Edmonton's penalty kill is porous at 68.18 per cent — a recipe for special-teams goals if the whistles come out. Conversely, the Mammoth's own penalty kill sits at a respectable 75.86 per cent, but the Oilers' elite talent can exploit any lapse.

With both teams capable of lighting the lamp and Friday's contest already delivering six, this Sunday arvo rematch has the makings of another high-event affair. Our nhl picks lean towards the over, banking on offensive firepower and fatigue tipping the scales beyond 6.5 goals.

The yarn on Sunday's rematch

Quick turnarounds make for compelling theatre in the NHL, and this one's no different. The Mammoth have the recent psychological edge, the home-ice advantage, and the better overall form line. Friday's win wasn't a fluke — it was the continuation of a four-game run that's seen Utah outscore opponents 18–12 and win on the road in hostile buildings.

Edmonton will be smarting, and McDavid doesn't lose twice in a row without a fight. But the Oilers' defensive vulnerabilities — particularly on the penalty kill — could be their undoing again if Utah's power play gets opportunities. The Mammoth's balanced scoring depth, led by Schmaltz, Keller, and Guenther, gives them multiple avenues to attack.

Expect a faster, more open game than Friday's cagey affair. Both sides know each other intimately now, and the quick turnaround could lead to fatigue-induced mistakes that favour the attacking side. For punters eyeing this Sunday afternoon clash, the Mammoth's home form and recent dominance over the Oilers make them the compelling lean — whether on the straight win or pushing for the puck-line cover.