Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals tips: Cowboys to cover in NFC rematch

The Dallas Cowboys welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Texas for a Monday morning AEDT blockbuster, kicking off at 5:00 am on Monday, 2 November. It's a quick turnaround in this NFC clash, with the Cowboys looking to bounce back from a narrow home defeat while the Cardinals search for their second win of the campaign.

Dallas sit fourth in the NFC at 2-1, their only blemish a three-point loss to New Orleans in their most recent outing. Arizona arrive at 1-3 and second-bottom of the conference ladder, having dropped their last two starts. The Cowboys thumped the Cardinals 34–13 in Arizona just over a month ago, a 21-point margin that looms large over this rematch.

With the home side listed at $1.34 and the visitors out at $3.29, punters are firmly backing Dallas to make it two from two against Arizona this season. The Cowboys' 2-0 road record and the Cardinals' 0-2 mark at home this year suggest venue might matter, but it's Dallas playing host this time around.

Who will win?

The Cowboys' season ledger tells a tale of road dominance and home vulnerability. They've won both away starts — including that 34–13 shellacking of Arizona on 23 August — but stumbled in their only home fixture, falling 24–27 to the Saints on 29 August. Coming off that narrow loss, Dallas will be eager to christen their home campaign with a statement win.

Arizona's form line makes for grim reading. The Cardinals went down 13–34 to these same Cowboys at home, then followed it with a 38–42 defeat at Green Bay on 29 August. They've scored freely in patches — 38 points against the Packers shows offensive spark — but the 1-3 record and minus-15 point differential paint a picture of a side leaking scores at the wrong end.

The head-to-head history is fresh and unambiguous: Dallas 34, Arizona 13 in August. The Cowboys carved up the Cardinals' home defence for 34 points and held them to 13 in reply. That 21-point margin was built on complete control, and with the Cardinals having shown no defensive improvement since, the rematch setup favours the hosts.

Dallas carry a plus-28 point differential into Week 8, second-best among NFC contenders, while Arizona sit at minus-15. The Cowboys have allowed just 47 points across three games; the Cardinals have shipped 123 in four outings. For all our nfl tips, the runway looks clear for Dallas to register their first home win of the year and move to 3-1.

Can the Cowboys cover the line?

The Cowboys are asked to lay 6.5 points at home, and the August meeting offers a tidy blueprint. Dallas won by 21 on the road in Arizona — more than triple the spread being quoted here. While that margin came away from home, the form since suggests Dallas are the more complete outfit regardless of venue.

Arizona's two home starts have both ended in defeat, and the 21-point hiding they copped from Dallas was the more comprehensive of the pair. The Cardinals' only win came on the road, so there's no pattern of home-ground resistance to lean on. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' road excellence (2-0, outscoring opponents significantly) hints they're comfortable in hostile territory — playing at home should only amplify that edge.

The Cowboys won their road start against Arizona by 21 and lost their home game to New Orleans by just three. Even accounting for the Saints result, Dallas have been the better side across the ledger. Arizona's minus-15 differential tells you they're losing by an average of nearly four points per game, and that includes a win. Strip that out, and the margins blow wider.

At 6.5 points, the line asks Dallas to win by a converted touchdown. Given they've already beaten this opponent by three times that margin and boast the superior record, differential, and recent form, the Cowboys look a solid play to cover the spread at home.

The punter's yarn

This one carries the scent of unfinished business for Dallas. They bossed Arizona on the road barely six weeks ago, then came home and let a winnable game slip against the Saints by three points. The narrative writes itself: Cowboys keen to assert themselves in front of their own crowd, Cardinals still searching for answers after back-to-back defeats.

Arizona's offensive output — 38 points at Green Bay, 13 against Dallas — swings wildly, but the defensive frailties are consistent. They've conceded 123 points in four games, an average north of 30 per outing. Dallas, by contrast, have allowed fewer than 16 points per game and own a plus-28 differential that ranks among the NFC's elite.

The Cowboys' 2-0 road record and the way they handled Arizona in August suggest they're a side that travels well and handles business against weaker opposition. Now they get to do it at home, where the only loss was a tight three-pointer to a quality Saints outfit. The Cardinals, 0-2 at home and 1-3 overall, arrive with little to inspire confidence and plenty of recent evidence that Dallas have their measure.