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Ararat (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ararat (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sun 8 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Today's meetingsArarat (VIC)Change

Race 7 — Programmed Ararat Bowl 1300m · jumps

Race notes

  • 3yo+,HCP,Open
  • SOFT5
  • Fine
  • 11 runners

Shortest win price

Rue De Royale (5) and Sergeant Major (7)

3.10

Most career wins

Celsius Star

10-9-11 from 59 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 13Buzitup

Midfield

  • 7Sergeant Major
  • 11Miss Mahjong

Offpace

  • 2Tuff Tu Mus
  • 10Surprise Coming
  • 1Precious Charm

Onpace

  • 5Rue De Royale
  • 8Princess Que

Leader

  • 3Celsius Star
  • 4Black Storm
  • 12Stonecoat

  • Precious Charm · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Tuff Tu Mus · Negative

    Gave ground LS

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Celsius Star · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

  • Black Storm · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 62% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Precious CharmJ: Jett Stanley·T: Symon Wilde1160kg8 9 5 11 1529: 9-1-0$17.00$4.00

Career

29: 9-1-0

Rating · IRD

82

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 3-0-0

  • Second-up

    4: 2-0-0

  • Third-up

    4: 2-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 1-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    7: 3-1-0

  • Track Casterton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2350m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    5: 3-0-0

  • Going Good

    14: 5-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    3: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    12: 3-1-0

Last starts

  1. 15Flemington1100m31 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD411.52L
  2. 11Swan Hill1600m7 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT55.8L
  3. 5Warrnambool1700m5 May 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY82.1L
  4. 9Flemington1600m28 Mar 2026 · 3UP HCP · SOFT74.9L
  5. 8Flemington1400m7 Mar 2026 · GROUP 3 HCP · GOOD34.7L
  6. 7Flemington2000m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP BM100 HCP · GOOD32.6L
  7. 1Geelong1700m3 Jan 2026 · 3UP HCP · GOOD3-0.2
  8. 5Sandown1600m26 Dec 2025 · LISTED HCP · GOOD42.6L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 34% POT in L100 Runners

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

  • 2nd Up S/R

    Positive

    Has won 2 from 4 when second up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

  • Up In Weight

    Negative

    Goes up 4kg weight here

Comments

AAP

Dropped out to last and never sighted at Flemington off spell. This much easier.

ILB

Backs up quickly. Jumped at $201.00 and only fair when 15th last run at Flemington but taking on a lower class of opponents. Likely to settle back in the field. Do not dismiss.

RP

Towards the rear of 16 at Flemington back down to 5½f last month in a Group 3; a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 9-29; one to consider now down in grade and should be sharper for her recent return to action.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. Started at 200/1 and disappointing display when 15th last start at Flemington but matched against a less competitive field. Gets back and needs luck. Rises in weight.

2Tuff Tu MusJ: Eoin Walsh·T: Dean Williams959kg12 8 7 7 1216: 7-2-0$17.00$4.00

Career

16: 7-2-0

Rating · IRD

80

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Gold Coast

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sunshine Coast

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Randwick

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1815m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    8: 4-2-0

  • Going Soft

    8: 3-0-0

Last starts

  1. 12Sandown1600m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT76.4L
  2. 7Randwick1800m8 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.1L
  3. 7Caulfield1600m25 July 2026 · BM100 · SOFT65.1L
  4. 8Caulfield1400m11 July 2026 · BM100 · SOFT72.7L
  5. 12Caulfield1400m27 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT717L
  6. 18Gold Coast1400m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP LISTED · GOOD420.9L
  7. 9Doomben1350m29 Nov 2025 · LISTED QUALITY · SOFT63.9L
  8. 1Eagle Farm1815m2 Aug 2025 · BM90 HCP · GOOD4-0.7

Insights

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Dist Drop

    Negative

    Distance decrease from last start

  • Fresh

    Positive

    Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ex Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in Victoria. Rider found a forward spot at Hillside but he put in a very lacklustre finish over longer assignment. Easier race.

ILB

Jumped at $31.00 and didn't attack the line when 12th last time at Sandown and will be down in distance. First appearance for a new trainer. Suited on soft ground. Looking at others.

RP

Finished towards the rear of 13 over 1m at Sandown (handicap) two months ago; admirable career strike-rate (seven from 16 to date); runs for a new stable here; has strong claims.

RSIS

Was 30/1 and didn't threaten when 12th last time at Sandown and back to a shorter distance. First race for a new trainer. Likes the cut in the ground.

3Celsius StarJ: Jack Hill·T: Shawn Mathrick658kg4 4 2 2 1359: 10-9-11$3.90$1.75

Career

59: 10-9-11

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    7: 0-3-0

  • Second-up

    6: 1-2-0

  • Third-up

    6: 1-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Track Pakenham

    3: 1-1-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    6: 0-2-3

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1217m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1440m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-0-1

  • Going Soft

    12: 5-2-1

  • Going Synthetic

    1: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 13Flemington1200m31 Oct 2026 · GROUP 3 HCP · GOOD46.18L
  2. 2Geelong1200m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD40.15L
  3. 2Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP HCP · GOOD31.5L
  4. 4Flemington1200m6 June 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY84.8L
  5. 4Caulfield1200m30 May 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY82.2L
  6. 4Flemington1200m16 May 2026 · LISTED HCP · GOOD43L
  7. 7Bendigo1100m2 May 2026 · BM84 · GOOD34.3L
  8. 1Mornington1200m18 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · GOOD4-0.5

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Jack Hill 22% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Weight Increase

    Negative

    Rises 4kg now

Comments

AAP

Went close at Geelong 21 Oct. Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Flemington. This an easier assignment.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Folded up in the straight when 13th last time at Flemington but lining up against easier rivals. Should race on the speed. Definite winning chance.

RP

Finished 13th, beaten a fair way in a Group 3 at Flemington a week ago; he can be competitive at this level; rates a likely contender judged on finishing second two starts back and had excuses last time (hampered).

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Folded up in the straight when 13th last start at Flemington but taking on easier opposition. Has plenty of early pace. Up in weight. Has strong claims.

4Black StormJ: Luke Cartwright·T: T Fitzsimmons356.5kg9 2 5 13 427: 6-10-1$6.50$2.40

Career

27: 6-10-1

Rating · IRD

95

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 2-1-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Swan Hill

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Tatura

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Werribee

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1700m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1350m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    21: 4-10-1

  • Going Soft

    6: 2-0-0

Last starts

  1. 4Bendigo1400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.6L
  2. 13Seymour1600m11 Oct 2026 · LISTED · SOFT58.57L
  3. 5Caulfield Heath1500m8 Aug 2026 · BM84 · SOFT65.9L
  4. 2Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · HCP · GOOD40.4L
  5. 9Caulfield1700m27 June 2026 · BM78 · SOFT73.3L
  6. 5Swan Hill1600m7 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT51.6L
  7. 2Warracknabeal1600m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.5L
  8. 1Albury1600m19 Mar 2026 · ALBURYMILE BM90 · SOFT7-0.9

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 62% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Timothy Fitzsimmons striking at just 7%

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Luke Cartwright 54% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 35%

  • Form 3rd Up

    Positive

    Has won 1 from 2 when third up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Down In Weight

    Positive

    Drops 4kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Led, gave away final stages at Bendigo. Can show early speed.

ILB

Felt the pinch when 4th last run at Bendigo and carrying less weight this time. Should be going forward early. Strong claims.

RP

Career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 6-27); creditable effort to finish fourth, beaten 2½l over 7f at Bendigo (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Tired late when 4th last start at Bendigo and dropping weight. Has shown early pace in races to date. Commands respect.

5Rue De RoyaleJ: Linda Meech·T: T & C Mcevoy856.5kg2 1 6 10 629: 3-8-4$3.10$1.55

Career

29: 3-8-4

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 0-1-1

  • Second-up

    5: 1-1-0

  • Third-up

    4: 1-1-2

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-1-1

  • Track Swan Hill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sandown

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Flemington

    9: 1-3-1

  • Distance 1100m

    4: 0-2-1

  • Distance 1200m

    14: 2-2-1

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 1-1-0

  • Going Good

    24: 3-7-3

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-1-1

Last starts

  1. 6Geelong1200m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD42.2L
  2. 10Flemington1200m3 Oct 2026 · BM78 · HEAVY1012.2L
  3. 6Wagga1200m30 Apr 2026 · Open · GOOD44.3L
  4. 1Caulfield1200m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.2
  5. 2Flemington1200m28 Feb 2026 · BM78 · GOOD40.5L
  6. 2Flemington1200m14 Feb 2026 · BM90 · GOOD40.1L
  7. 6Caulfield1100m31 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.5L
  8. 3Flemington1200m10 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.8L

Insights

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 10%

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 44%

  • Trainer Form

    Negative

    Stable out of form, losing 52% Profit on Turnover

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

On pace but conceded late at Geelong when second-up. Can go forward.

ILB

Odds of $7.50 and was well beaten when 6th last time at Geelong. Expected to rebound and gets a reduction in weight. Major chance.

RP

Not far behind Celsius Star when sixth over 6f at Geelong (handicap) two weeks ago.

RSIS

At 13/2 weakened under pressure when 6th last run at Geelong. Has the potential to improve sharply and will appreciate the drop in weight. Strong chance.

6Laa De ShaScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Insights

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Made late rally from the back at Geelong off extended spell.

ILB

Jumped at $7.00 and picked up some late ground when 5th last run at Geelong.

RSIS

Started 6/1 and edged past some when finishing 5th last start at Geelong.

7Sergeant MajorJ: Jabez Johnstone·T: C Maher454kg9 8 7 6 916: 2-1-2$3.10$1.55

Career

16: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

94

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-1-2

  • Second-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    4: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Randwick

    6: 1-0-0

  • Track Caulfield

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Moonee Valley

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    7: 1-0-2

  • Distance 1400m

    7: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    9: 1-0-2

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 9Randwick1400m20 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.3L
  2. 6Randwick1400m23 May 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY106.9L
  3. 7Randwick1200m25 Apr 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM78 HCP · GOOD42.1L
  4. 8Eagle Farm1400m8 Nov 2025 · HCP · GOOD34.9L
  5. 9Randwick1400m18 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM88 HCP · GOOD43.4L
  6. 4Randwick1200m20 Sept 2025 · 3UP BM88 HCP · GOOD41.6L
  7. 4Rosehill1200m30 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT51.4L
  8. 1Randwick1400m12 Apr 2025 · 3yo · GOOD4-0.35

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (20-weeks). Tends to race well first-up without winning. Didn't make much impact in stronger races last prep.

ILB

Racing fresh after a break. Finished 9th last start at Randwick. Expecting improvement and suited by the weight drop. Good chance in this.

RP

Recent form nothing to write home about; didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Randwick (beaten just over 4l) over 7f (handicap) in June; returns from a layoff; easy to oppose.

RSIS

Resuming. Finished 9th last start at Randwick. Overlooking the last run and will benefit with the weight drop. Strong prospects in this race.

8Princess QueJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Simon Zahra154kg2 5 8 8 415: 3-3-1$5.00$2.00

Career

15: 3-3-1

Rating · IRD

79

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-1

  • Second-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Seymour

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    11: 3-3-0

  • Distance 1400m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    5: 1-0-1

  • Going Good

    10: 2-3-0

Last starts

  1. 4Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.87L
  2. 8Sandown1200m2 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56L
  3. 8Caulfield1100m15 Aug 2026 · BM74 · SOFT64.1L
  4. 5Cranbourne1400m13 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM74 HCP · GOOD31.8L
  5. 2Murray Bridge1200m17 Jan 2026 · BM74 · GOOD40.1L
  6. 7Moonee Valley1200m24 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM80 HCP · GOOD32.7L
  7. 7Flemington1200m4 Oct 2025 · BM78 · GOOD33.7L
  8. 2Moonee Valley1200m6 Sept 2025 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD40.8L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 57%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 29% POT in L100 Runners

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Weight Drop

    Positive

    Drops 7.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Against own gender when brave effort in busy finish at Seymour. Hass place claims.

ILB

At $12.00 didn't finish off when 4th last start at Seymour and has minimal work to do from the gate. Gets a reduction in weight. Competing in a higher grade. A demanding task.

RP

A close fourth over 6f at Seymour (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Odds of 11/1 and peaked on the run when 4th last run at Seymour and has a nice advantage with a good stall. Matched against tougher rivals.

9Fridge MonsterScratched13––––

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Insights

  • Fresh

    Positive

    Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

Comments

AAP

LHandily placed and worked home soundly at Cranbourne. That form good for this.

ILB

Back from a let up. At $16.00 was found wanting late when 4th last time at Cranbourne but up against a more competitive field. Sheridan Clarke is a suitable booking.

RSIS

Freshened for this. Started 15/1 and outmatched in the final stages of the race when 4th last time at Cranbourne but up against a more competitive field.

10Surprise ComingJ: Zac Spain·T: Hazel Fertier554kg2 10 13 9 636: 5-5-5$17.00$4.20

Career

36: 5-5-5

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 1-1-1

  • Second-up

    5: 2-1-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-0-1

  • Track Morphettville

    19: 2-2-3

  • Track Donald

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Murray Bridge

    12: 2-2-1

  • Distance 1620m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1400m

    8: 0-2-1

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    24: 2-2-4

  • Going Soft

    12: 3-3-1

Last starts

  1. 6Morphettville1200m24 Oct 2026 · BM84 · SOFT53.12L
  2. 9Murray Bridge1200m26 Sept 2026 · BM68 · GOOD43.89L
  3. 13Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · HCP · GOOD426.4L
  4. 10Morphettville1568m27 June 2026 · BM78 · SOFT67L
  5. 2Murray Bridge1400m13 June 2026 · BM76 · SOFT60.4L
  6. 2Murray Bridge1200m23 May 2026 · BM82 · SOFT50.2L
  7. 2Murray Bridge1000m7 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L
  8. 3Morphettville1600m7 Feb 2026 · BM78 · GOOD41.8L

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 25% lower than Career Avg.

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Hazel Fertier striking at just 12%

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Morphettville. One for exotics.

ILB

Odds of $11.00 and not in contention when 6th last run at Morphettville. Can run into the placings.

RP

Not disgraced in sixth at Morphettville over 6f (handicap) last month; has lacked consistency of late; passed over.

RSIS

At 10/1 looked flat when 6th last time at Morphettville.

11Miss MahjongJ: Declan Bates·T: Matthew Cumani1054kg2 1 3 2 224: 5-6-4$11.00$3.50

Career

24: 5-6-4

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 2-0-2

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Track Ballarat Synthetic

    7: 3-2-1

  • Track Ballarat

    2: 0-0-2

  • Track Flemington

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1420m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Synthetic

    7: 3-2-1

  • Going Good

    11: 1-3-2

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-1-1

Last starts

  1. 2Horsham1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33L
  2. 2Morphettville1250m19 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD41.17L
  3. 3Ballarat Synthetic1200m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.3L
  4. 1Ballarat Synthetic1200m6 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SYNTHETIC-0.2
  5. 2Ballarat Synthetic1200m14 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC2L
  6. 4Ballarat Synthetic1400m24 June 2026 · BM66 · SYNTHETIC2.9L
  7. 10Caulfield Heath1200m20 May 2026 · BM74 · SOFT64.3L
  8. 2Seymour1200m26 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SOFT50.4L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Racing Solidly

    Positive

    In peak form

  • Down In Weight

    Positive

    Drops 4.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Racing with some conviction. Reserved at back and gave late chase into second at Horsham. Can win this.

ILB

Produced an eye catching run when 2nd last time at Horsham but racing in stronger company. Exhibiting good form since resuming from a spell and goes down in weight. This looks a tough assignment.

RP

Has been consistent of late and a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 5-24; on the premises when runner-up of nine at Horsham over 6f (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Good performance to run into 2nd last run at Horsham but racing against tougher rivals. Been in the money multiple times recently and goes down in weight.

12StonecoatJ: Tom Madden·T: Joanne Mugavin254kg4 5 3 8 832: 6-3-3$21.00$4.60

Career

32: 6-3-3

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    7: 2-0-2

  • Second-up

    6: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    6: 2-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Morphettville

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Gosford

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1280m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    14: 1-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    4: 1-1-1

  • Going Soft

    14: 4-1-1

Last starts

  1. 8Caulfield Heath1500m8 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SOFT65.7L
  2. 8Sandown1600m22 July 2026 · BM74 · SOFT63.1L
  3. 3Sandown1500m8 July 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY82.1L
  4. 5Canberra1600m24 Oct 2025 · FED OPEN BM83 · SOFT50.6L
  5. 4Kembla Grange1600m27 Sept 2025 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD31.8L
  6. 1Canberra1600m19 Sept 2025 · BM75 · SOFT5-1.3
  7. 4Canberra1900m22 Aug 2025 · OPEN BM84 · GOOD30.7L
  8. 8Randwick1800m13 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · HEAVY99.9L

Insights

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 25% POT in L100 Runners

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (13-weeks). Raced in metro company last prep. Drawn to get an economic trail.

ILB

First up and despite peaking on the run still grabbed 3rd first up last preparation at Sandown. Expecting to settle positively. Can find a nice position from the draw. Will be a difficult assignment.

RP

Was held in eighth at Caulfield over 7½f (handicap) three months ago; he can be competitive at this level; could be dangerous if duplicating the form of his most recent win.

RSIS

Resuming and faded in the late stages of the race when 3rd beaten by 2L resuming last preparation at Sandown. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

13BuzitupJ: Shayleigh Ingelse·T: S J Campbell754kg2 1 6 5 113: 3-3-0$18.00$4.20

Career

13: 3-3-0

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 2-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Moe

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    4: 1-0-0

  • Track Pakenham

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1200m

    8: 2-1-0

  • Going Good

    5: 2-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    7: 1-2-0

Last starts

  1. 1Warrnambool1200m15 Oct 2026 · BM62 · GOOD4-0.1
  2. 5Ballarat1200m24 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · GOOD44.4L
  3. 6Pakenham1200m15 May 2026 · 2UP BM66 HCP · SOFT52.4L
  4. 1Ballarat1200m30 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-1.5
  5. 2Stawell1300m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.3L
  6. 1Terang1206m17 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT6-1.8
  7. 8Ballarat1400m6 Dec 2025 · 3-5yo · SOFT64.6L
  8. 2Warrnambool1200m30 Nov 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT60.8L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 75% better than Career Avg.

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Shayleigh Ingelse 109% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Stable In Form

    Positive

    Stable going well. Out performing market by 104%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 86% POT in L100 Runners

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Shayleigh Ingelse in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 109%

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

Comments

AAP

Drove hard late to nail a narrow win at Warrnambool off spell. Can go on with it.

ILB

Charged home to win last run at Warrnambool and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Likely to get back. Challenged by more formidable competitors. Hard to see this being competitive today.

RP

Record shows he knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 3-13); narrow winner of a handicap (Warrnambool) last month; despite that Warrnambool success, hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Was eating up the ground late to win last run at Warrnambool and getting better in recent performances. Expected to settle towards the tail. Competing in a higher grade.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.