Grafton (NSW) horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 2:00 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Grafton (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Tue 20 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Tue, 20 OctGrafton (NSW)Change

Race 3 — Crjc Agm 25 November Mdn Plate 1220m · jumps Tue 20 Oct, 2:25 pm AEDT

Race notes

MDN-SW,Maiden
HEAVY10
Showers
9 runners

Shortest win price

Plume (8)

2.90

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Offpace

12Dancing By

Onpace

1Ace Haz
4Sea Turtle
5Deep Affection

Firststart

7Limbazi
10Trackhawk

Backmarker

11Belle Reine

Leader

8Plume
9Naystar

Ace Haz · Negative
Jockey Booking
Scott Sheargold current POT is 33% below Career Avg.
Sea Turtle · Negative
Trainer SR
Aiden St Vincent striking at just 7%
Deep Affection · Negative
Trainer SR
Ethan Ensby striking at just 7%
Limbazi · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Ace HazJ: Scott Sheargold·T: Tenille Ranger559kg12 2 41: 0-0-0$11.00$3.30

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Beaudesert1050m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)11.7L
2Gold Coast1000m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.3L
12Bendigo1000m30 July 2026 · MDN SW · SOFT613.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Scott Sheargold current POT is 33% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 60% in L100 rides
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (82-days). Ex S Jokic in Victoria. Well down the track at Bendigo on debut at cricket score odds. Had two trials since for new stable. Needs to find a few lengths.

ILB

Back from a break. Started at $101.00 and didn't find the line when 12th last start at Bendigo but having second career run. First appearance for a new trainer. A difficult test here.

Seemed green at Bendigo when held on his debut at 100-1 three months ago; first start for current trainer; must make above-average progress to figure.

RSIS

First run back. At 100/1 tailed off to finish 12th last start at Bendigo but was a debutant last start. First start for a new trainer.

2EncontreScratched1––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Early form encouraging. Issued decent challenge Super Mdn at Ballina at second start. Looking for this trip now. Improver and rates strongly.

ILB

On a short back up. Did well when 3rd last time at Lismore and good career start. Going well this preparation and has the ideal draw.

RSIS

On a short back up. Nice run when 3rd last start at Lismore and showing consistent performance in races. Performing impressively since resuming from a break and drawn the rails.

3Logan DownsScratched11––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer50%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Comments

AAP

A vastly improved performance when the Shalaa 4year-old ran into the minors at Kilcoy for new stable as fav. Strips fitter. Not as well drawn this time should progress.

ILB

Peaked on the run when 2nd beaten by 1L last start at Kilcoy.

RSIS

Was outmuscled when 2nd beaten by 1L last run at Kilcoy.

4Sea TurtleJ: Matthew Palmer·T: Aiden St Vincent759kg9 7 3 5 412: 0-1-1$20.00$3.90

Career

12: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
4: 0-0-1
Track Port Macquarie
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Port Macquarie1500m10 Oct 2026 · MDN HCP · GOOD42.52L
5Port Macquarie1506m27 Sept 2026 · Maiden · GOOD46.29L
3Coffs Harbour1218m13 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD42.1L
7Coffs Harbour1412m3 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD49.8L
9Grafton1730m18 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT67.9L
9Coffs Harbour1400m7 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT55.2L
8Port Macquarie1206m31 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT67.3L
6Grafton1100m19 July 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT57.2L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Aiden St Vincent striking at just 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 6kg weight here

Comments

AAP

Ran on soundly from midfield at Port Macquarie. Drops to shorter trip. That was encouraging but hard to take too seriously.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and hit the line well when 4th last run at Port Macquarie but back to a shorter distance. A 12 start maiden and going up in weight. Entitled to be a big price.

Solid run when fourth over 7½f at Port Macquarie (handicap) ten days ago; still winless and defeats stacking up (12 on the bounce).

RSIS

At 18/1 picked up some ground to run 4th last time at Port Macquarie but coming back in trip. Still a maiden after 12 starts and going up in weight.

5Deep AffectionJ: N.r·T: Ethan Ensby857kg7 5 9 6 109: 0-0-1$5.00$2.00

Career

9: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

10Grafton1190m21 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD415.55L
6Lismore1010m10 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.9L
9Kembla Grange1400m4 Nov 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD47.7L
5Nowra1200m19 Oct 2025 · MDN · GOOD33.1L
7Kembla Grange1200m4 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.8L
3Canberra1000m19 Sept 2025 · MDN · SOFT51.5L
5Randwick740m22 July 2025 · Barrier Trial2.4L
8Randwick742m11 July 2025 · Barrier Trial5.6L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Ethan Ensby striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -45% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 40%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide

Comments

AAP

Remains fresh. Finished well down the track in Mdn this track first-up under new trainer. More needed.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Unimpressive effort when 9th last time at Lismore. Blinkers go off for the first time. Could feature here.

Winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at ten; was tailed off at Lismore on Sunday upped to 7f; passed over.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Disappointing run when 9th last time at Lismore. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time. Betting is the best guide.

6Duchess DifficultScratched2––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 12%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -41% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Refused to shirk task in Mdn Plate at Doomben second-up. All the better, highly fancied to go one better.

ILB

Good performance to run into 2nd last time at Doomben and will appreciate a good draw. Should jump out and bowl along. Showing improvement in recent outings.

Beaten three-quarters of a length (Doomben) 15 days ago.

RSIS

Finished strongly when 2nd last time at Doomben and drawn well. Has plenty of early pace. Demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Has more weight to carry.

7LimbaziJ: Ben Looker·T: Ethan Ensby257kg3 4 3 1$3.10$1.50

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Grafton940m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-0.8
3Grafton946m29 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.5L
4Sunshine Coast Poly Track1000m24 June 2025 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC3.5L
3Sunshine Coast850m27 May 2025 · Barrier Trial6L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 40%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (5:1-0-2). $50k purchase. Out of a stakes-placed mare. Ready to greet the starter after some decent trial work. Good draw. Market watch advised.

ILB

4yo first starter sired by Hanseatic for Ethan Ensby. Success in a barrier trial at the track on Oct 13th. Watch betting.

Related to Namabaale, winning form over 6½f-1m1½f; having first race; should prove competitive.

RSIS

Career debut 4yo by Hanseatic for trainer Ethan Ensby. Won a trial around here on Oct 13th. Watch the betting.

8PlumeJ: Daniel Smith·T: R N Godbolt357kg6 2 2 7 87: 0-1-1$2.90$1.40

Career

7: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Port Macquarie1200m9 Oct 2026 · Maiden · GOOD43.02L
7Gosford1200m28 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · SOFT52.8L
2Newcastle1250m13 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD41L
2Randwick1045m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.4L
6Rosehill900m24 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)8.5L
4Hawkesbury1100m26 Mar 2026 · F&M MDN · GOOD41.5L
3Newcastle900m12 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD41.2L
5Kembla Grange1000m17 Feb 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.4L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Performance just fair at Port Macquarie for new trainer at $11. Better draw here and has a Newcastle 2nd to her credit. Key player.

ILB

At $11.00 weakened under pressure when 8th last time at Port Macquarie. Overlooking the last run. Will be pushing for a forward position early. The one they all have to beat.

Seven-race maiden but has managed to finish second; not disgraced when eighth of 14 at Port Macquarie 11 days ago on debut for this trainer; others appeal more.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and struggled with the pace when 8th last run at Port Macquarie. Should improve. Should come to hand quickly. The one they have to get past.

9NaystarJ: Jett Newman·T: M J Dunn656.5kg5 2 6 5 62: 0-0-0$4.40$1.85

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Ballina1000m4 Oct 2026 · Maiden · GOOD34.43L
5Grafton940m21 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.9L
6Grafton1000m19 Apr 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD36L
2Beaudesert1050m9 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.6L
5Gold Coast1000m27 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)9.6L
2Lismore1010m10 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial11.4L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 27% in Last 100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jett Newman in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 22%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely at Ballina at second outing. at $21. Only for exotics.

ILB

Started at $21.00 and didn't attack the line when 6th last time at Ballina. Has plenty of early speed. Could be in the mix.

Not beaten that far in sixth (4½l) at Ballina two weeks ago in a handicap; others more persuasive.

RSIS

Was 20/1 and weakened under pressure when 6th last run at Ballina. Jett Newman and Matthew Dunn are a strong team. Shows good early pace. Watch for a sign in the market.

10TrackhawkJ: Zac Wadick·T: Jason Reilly456.5kg6 6 2 8$8.00$2.75

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

8Gold Coast1000m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.4L
2Beaudesert1050m27 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.3L
6Beaudesert900m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.4L
6Gold Coast850m27 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)18.9L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Trials (5:0-2-0). $130k purchase. Full brother to G2 winner Kristilli. Look to betting.

ILB

First race appearance 3yo by Hellbent for Jason Reilly. Interesting gear change of winkers on first time. Fitter for a trial at Aquis Park Gold Coast on Aug 11th. Betting as a guide.

Related to multiple race winner Hot Press (6f-1m); sire capable of producing high class offspring; strong contender as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

3yo by Hellbent first starter for Jason Reilly. Interesting gear change of cheekpieces on first time. Finished 2nd in a trial at Aquis Park Gold Coast on Aug 11th. Respect the betting.

11Belle ReineJ: Violet Soulsby·T: Ethan Ensby155kg8 4 51: 0-0-0$10.00$3.30

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Grafton1006m29 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT63.02L
4Lismore1010m10 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)3L
8Grafton940m19 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)8.8L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Ethan Ensby striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 40%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Gave a sight on debut this venue as an outsider 29 Sep. Benefits from the experience. Hope for exotics only.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Started at $26.00 and was ordinary when 9th last time at Lismore but drawn nicely. Likely to get back in the field. Best to watch and see.

Finished last of nine in a handicap at Lismore upped to this trip on Sunday; others more persuasive.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. At 25/1 fairly underwhelming when 9th last start at Lismore but has a positive draw. Likely to get back in the field.

12Dancing ByJ: Karl Zechner·T: Adam Campton955kg9 5 42: 0-0-0$5.00$2.00

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Gold Coast1000m6 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)0.8L
5Gold Coast1400m13 June 2026 · 2Y MDN · HEAVY85.19L
9Doomben1110m3 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD411.4L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (18-weeks). Looked forward enough in latest trial. Leaning towards others here.

ILB

Back after a break. Started at $21.00 and came in 5th last run at Gold Coast. Ran 4th in a trial at Aquis Park Gold Coast on Oct 6th. Rough chance.

Beaten just over 5l in fifth in a handicap in June at Gold Coast upped to 7f; returns from a layoff; warrants respect.

RSIS

Resuming after break. Started at 20/1 and finished 5th last time at Gold Coast. Ran 4th in a trial at Aquis Park Gold Coast on Oct 6th.

13Sparkling BettyScratched10––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (3:0-0-1). Dam placed twice. Latest trial okay and in respected stable. Look to market for a further guide.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Finished on top by 1L last time at Lismore and fitter for debut run.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Left nothing to chance when winning by 1L last run at Lismore and was on debut last time.

Odds correct as at Tue 20 Oct, 7:30 am AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Tue 13 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 6 races
Tue 29 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Mon 21 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Mon 7 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races