Shortest win price
Take The Chance (9)
4.00
The Bungendore track is tacky at Soft 6 under overcast skies, and we're looking at a 1600-metre Benchmark 58 handicap that's shaping as a genuine arm-wrestle. Take The Chance heads the market, with I Doubt It and Lucilago the next two chances according to the punters. Pearler, Heart Balm, Big Time Charlie, Tidal Rush, Rose Diamond, and Never Lose Faith complete the line. The race maps as a Leader's brief — Take The Chance and Big Time Charlie both sit there early — with Pearler and Rose Diamond on pace, and I Doubt It out the back ready to motor.
Take The Chance is the shorter price but carries genuine baggage: rider change today, and Amy Mc Lucas's recent run rate is down 37 per cent on career average. That said, her form at 1600 metres reads solid — a BM58 win at Leeton by just under two lengths, then a three-length effort at Orange over the trip. The barrier at nine is no dream, but the note says she's got good gate speed to contest the lead. I Doubt It reads differently: Rochelle Wedrat-Kroezen is her pilot, and the stable's rolling at 21 per cent POT across the last hundred runners. Last start at Moruya was a Soft 7 third over 1300 metres; before that, a ninth at Canberra on the quick back-up. The form line here is a touch fragile, but the rating of 100 — highest in the field — and the inside draw at one are worth weighing. Pearler is the live roughie. Molly Bourke and G R Nickson are flying 84 per cent above market expectations, and the mare won here at 1460 metres last start by a whisker. She's drawn three, maps on pace, and the comment flags her lovely record under Bourke at this track.
Lucilago deserves a deeper look for exotics. Chad Lever and Darryll Kell's combo is also outperforming at 53 per cent above market, and she ran on hard at Queanbeyan second-up over 1460 metres — just shy of three-quarters of a length back. The softer ground should suit her better than the good tracks she prefers, and she's got her weight down to 56 kilos. If the frontrunners have a set-to and the pace frazzles, the back-markers mightn't get the room. The yarn here leans Pearler to put it away, with Lucilago a considerate each-way angle into the wider numbers.
Shortest win price
Take The Chance (9)
4.00
Most career wins
Tidal Rush and Big Time Charlie
6 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Tidal Rush · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Big Time Charlie · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Pearler · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 84%
Heart Balm · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 78%
Career
38: 6-3-6
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 3-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-2-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-1
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
11: 2-1-1
Going Good
22: 3-1-4
Going Heavy
5: 1-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 57%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Glenn Cahill in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 40%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 22%
AAP
Outgunned but did enough for third at $61 this track over this journey. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Finished strongly when 3rd last start at the track and will find this grade more suitable. Always seems to find the line well. Watch betting.
RP
Ran well enough to finish third at 66-1 when ahead of Heart Balm two weeks ago; enters calculations.
RSIS
Nice effort to run into 3rd last start around here and up against weaker rivals. Will be motoring home late. Drawn nicely. Will have to carry more weight. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
42: 6-5-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-1
Track Muswellbrook
8: 1-2-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
5: 2-0-1
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
27: 4-3-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
14: 2-2-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 21%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (19-weeks). Has speed. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
Fresh from a break. Jumped at $5.00 and struggled with the pace when 9th last run at Canberra and has to carry more weight this time. Rough chance today.
RP
A course winner; beaten ninth of ten over 1m½f at Canberra Acton (handicap) in June; returns from a layoff; meeting some horses in good form and others make more appeal.
RSIS
Back from break. At 4/1 couldn't stay in touch when 9th last start at Canberra and carrying more weight than last time. Should come to hand quickly.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Queanbeyan
AAP
Posted a hard fought win in the Hcp (C1) this track second-up. Shapes as a major player again.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Randwick but matched against less formidable competition.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Didn't find the line when 10th last run at Randwick but stepping down to a lower level. Rising in weight.
Career
23: 4-0-3
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
3: 0-0-1
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
12: 3-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 84%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 33% POT in L100 Runners
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Form At Track
Positive
3 time winner here at Queanbeyan
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Drawn to get a conservative run and has a great history under Molly Bourke this track. Fit from racing, can challenge again.
ILB
Charged home to win last time at the track. Has some claims.
RP
Unbeaten at this course after three runs; too good for several of these over 7½f here (handicap) when getting the job done by half a length 15 days ago; ought to give it a shot.
RSIS
Charged home to win last run here. Has some claims.
Career
5: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1460m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 22% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 22%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished too well to claim victory in the Super Mdn this venue when fancied. Has claims for a repeat.
ILB
Finished hard to win last run at the track.
RP
Registered first success at the fifth time of asking here over 7½f (handicap) when getting the job done by half a length two weeks ago; shown recent signs of improvement; has to be considered.
Career
14: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 2-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
4: 2-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 78%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 6.5kg weight here
AAP
Started $10 when safely held in Benchmark 74 company this venue over this trip. Hard fit, one for exotics.
ILB
At $10.00 couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last time here. Expecting improvement and matched against lesser competition. Will have to carry extra weight. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Not disgraced in sixth when close behind Tidal Rush 15 days ago; subpar since successful in a handicap at Wagga four months ago; facing a testing assignment and easy to oppose.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and struggled with the pace when 6th last time around here. Giving another go here and dropping in grade. Will have to carry extra weight. Will go close.
Career
20: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1605m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 2-1-0
Going Soft
12: 0-1-1
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Every chance but compounded at Canberra. Drawn to effect. Worth a look.
ILB
Gave away some ground when 9th last run at Canberra. Likely to bounce back and drawn the rails. Solid chance.
RP
Has won here previously; finished ninth, beaten 7l, at Canberra 17 days ago in a conditions race; this looks a decent race so can be taken on.
RSIS
Didn't attack the line when 9th last run at Canberra. Expecting improvement and can save some energy from the stall. Strong chance to be considered.
Career
17: 1-5-3
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-2-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-1-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
11: 0-5-0
Going Soft
6: 1-0-3
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Out of the placings but still acquitted herself well this course. Leads, handy. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
Jumped at $10.00 and weakened under pressure when 6th last run around here. Should improve. Will be positive in the run early. Serious contender.
RP
Sixth, beaten just over 1l by Pearler here over 7½f (handicap) when producing a respectable effort 15 days ago; this looks a fair heat so only limited appeal.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and weakened under pressure when 6th last run around here. Expecting improvement. Should jump out and bowl along. Definite winning chance.
Career
31: 3-4-5
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
6: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
20: 3-3-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-1-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 37% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 41% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
Prominent and stuck to her guns at Orange over this trip. Outer barrier but has good gate speed. Major player here.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Couldn't shake them off when 3rd beaten by over 2 1/2L last time at Orange. Should come to hand quickly. Win will not surprise.
RP
Ran encouragingly when 2½l third at Orange last Monday.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Displayed a strong effort throughout the race when 3rd beaten by more than 2 1/2L last run at Orange. Good prospects.
Career
18: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1460m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kept on in busy finish this venue second-up. Best on top of the ground. Sharper now, goes into wider exotics.
ILB
Was $13.00 and made up ground when 4th last time at this venue. Considerable improvement needed.
RP
Creditable effort to finish fourth, beaten less than a length over 7½f here (handicap) 15 days ago, a race won by the reopposing Pearler; has a record of 1-18; this line-up contains some strong opposition so passed over.
RSIS
Was 12/1 and moved ahead of some to finish 4th last start here.
Career
5: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 1-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1080m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Anthony Warren in good form, out performing market 51%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 33% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 22%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On pace but soon under pressure and she knocked up badly at Albury. First try at 1600m. Can show more here.
ILB
Jumped at $10.00 and looked outclassed when 7th last run at Albury.
RP
Beaten 7l into seventh over 7f at Albury (handicap) 16 days ago; strong claims as she clearly knows how to get her head in front and had excuses last time (hampered); also engaged in race 5 at Queanbeyan.
RSIS
Started at 9/1 and folded up in the straight when 7th last time at Albury.
Career
81: 3-6-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
8: 0-0-0
Second-up
7: 0-1-1
Third-up
7: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
7: 1-1-3
Track Nowra
2: 0-0-1
Track Sunshine Coast
4: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1630m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
36: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
13: 1-0-3
Going Soft
31: 1-4-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 13% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not far off them in the small field this course. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Started $41.00 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last time at this track. Struggling this campaign with no placings from 6 starts. Will need a big effort to win this.
RP
Less than a length fifth to Pearler here over 7½f (handicap) 15 days ago; subpar since successful in a handicap at Braidwood in February; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
At 40/1 made up ground when 5th last time at this track. Likely to get back in the run. Yet to fire recently with no placings from 6 runs.