Shortest win price
Think Back (5)
2.65
Moree's hosting the Squires Constructions Country Boosted (BM58) over 1400 metres on a soft track this arvo at 4:05 pm AEDT. Think Back is shortest in the win market, with More Cash and Blazed Prince occupying the next two spots. Gold Smiles and Zou Big Boy round out the early favourites. It's a benchmark 58 country handicap that shapes as a genuine puzzle—there's form to like across the board, but the conditions and the wet track are setting up as levellers.
Think Back comes here with a proper trainer angle: Scott Singleton's stable is performing at 26 per cent profit on turnover across their last hundred runners and sitting 36 per cent above market expectation. The horse was placed in a Country Boosted at Scone 25 September and punctured badly after leading in a benchmark 66 over 1450 metres at Muswellbrook—that race setup reads as a genuine struggle against a stronger class. Back in this company at his comfort distance, the form suggests he's worth another look. More Cash, meanwhile, won handily on a heavy 9 at Inverell over today's trip and arrives off a short back-up with jockey Ashley Butler riding at 26 per cent above his career average. The AAP comment notes this is a sterner test but another wet track plays into his hands, particularly given he finished fastest overall at his last start.
Blazed Prince was tightly placed and gave his all at Tamworth over this journey at healthy odds, and the minor placing here sits within reasonable range. On the spread, Big Short and his jockey-trainer combination are outperforming market expectations by 136 per cent—that's a yarn worth following, though his form line is more modest. Zou Big Boy leads out but comes with a negative rider change and a jockey-trainer combo losing 100 per cent on turnover over their last hundred races, so the market setup looks wise there. This race has a fair dinkum spread and the mud will sort them.
Shortest win price
Think Back (5)
2.65
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Zou Big Boy · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
More Cash · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Shadow Shot · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Johnny Boz · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Career
29: 4-5-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
3: 0-0-0
Track Inverell
2: 0-1-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1666m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1690m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
13: 0-3-1
Going Heavy
6: 3-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-2-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Won (Bm66) Taree 22 Sep. Game with big weight over the longer trip at Tamworth. Back to 1400m. Again has a big impost but must respect.
ILB
Jumped at $4.40 and came in 4th last time at Tamworth. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Has shown early pace in races to date. Good chance and definitely has claims.
RP
Fourth, beaten less than a length, over 1m at Tamworth (handicap) last month (had two of these rivals behind); useful at this level; shown he can get his head in front so should give it a bold bid.
RSIS
Odds of 10/3 and came in 4th last time at Tamworth. Should improve. Should come to hand quickly. Large claim helps. Strong prospects.
Career
21: 5-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
3: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track Griffith
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
8: 2-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 2-0-0
Going Unknown
4: 3-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Ashley Butler 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
AAP
Romped in on a Hvy 9 at Inverell over today's trip. Sterner test here but strikes another wet track and can't rule out.
ILB
Was strong to the line when winning by a margin of almost 8L last start at Inverell on a heavy track and will try to take advantage of the alley. Could feature here.
RP
Won in good style (Inverell) two weeks ago; a previous winner here; others have more pressing claims despite that win last time.
RSIS
Was a comprehensive winner by almost 8L last start at Inverell and gets a favourable stall. Not at all out of this race.
Career
27: 4-3-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Orange
4: 1-1-0
Track Mudgee
2: 0-1-0
Track Narromine
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
15: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Key Rider
Positive
Billy Cray 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 50%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 50% Profit on Turnover
Key Jockey
Positive
Billy Cray winning at 7% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
AAP
Long losing streak. Sent out $51 when never got into the race at Narromine second-up. Coming back in distance. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
Started $51.00 and subpar when 7th last start at Narromine. Not threatening these.
RP
Beaten 5½l into seventh 13 days ago at Narromine upped to 1m; one to consider as shown he can be competitive fairly recently.
RSIS
Started 50/1 and was ordinary when 7th last time at Narromine.
Career
27: 5-2-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Inverell
1: 1-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Carinda
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1217m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1720m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1760m
1: 0-1-0
Going Unknown
6: 4-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Last start this trip ran on okay without troubling at Tamworth. New to Moree. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Odds of $41.00 and ran 8th last time at Tamworth. Very competitive this campaign. Considering others.
RP
Split Blazed Prince (third) and Gold Smiles (towards the rear) when dropped back to this distance posting a respectable display to finish eighth (Tamworth) two weeks ago; not hard to turn elsewhere with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
Was 40/1 and finished 8th last time at Tamworth.
Career
13: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1450m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-1
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Hot Trainer
Positive
Scott Singleton in good form, out performing market 36%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Placed Country Boosted Hcp (C2) at Scone 25 Sep. Punctured badly after leading in the 1450m Country Boosted (Bm66) at Muswellbrook. Respect back in this company. Well worth another look.
ILB
Odds of $3.20 and folded up in the straight when 5th last start at Muswellbrook. Giving another chance here and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Solid chance to come away with the spoils.
RP
Not beaten that far in fifth (4½l, Muswellbrook) 25 days ago; she shouldn't be far away if finding her best form.
RSIS
Started 11/5 and was well beaten when 5th last start at Muswellbrook. Giving another go here and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Prominent showing expected.
Career
59: 8-9-7
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-0-1
Second-up
5: 2-0-0
Third-up
5: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-0
Track Nyngan
1: 0-1-0
Track Talmoi
1: 0-1-0
Track Goulburn
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
34: 5-4-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Moree
AAP
Experienced campaigner. Great run at Dubbo 27 Sep. Ran on with some conviction from back half at Bathurst. Very fit, right in the mix.
ILB
Started at $4.40 and appeared lacklustre when 6th last start at Bathurst.
RP
Fair effort (beaten 2½l) at Bathurst over 6½f (handicap) 14 days ago; a previous winner here; makes limited appeal as not in the habit of winning recently.
RSIS
Odds of 10/3 and lacked competitiveness when 6th last time at Bathurst.
Career
49: 5-8-5
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
7: 2-0-1
Second-up
6: 0-2-1
Third-up
6: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-0
Track Quirindi
3: 0-1-0
Track Scone
4: 0-1-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 2-1-0
Distance 1300m
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
14: 1-0-1
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 136%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Raced in back half and failed to issue a serious challenge at Tamworth. One for exotics.
ILB
Started at $8.00 and looked outclassed when 7th last run at Tamworth. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Not disgraced when seventh of eight over 1m at Tamworth (handicap) last month; finished ahead of Blazed Prince but was behind Zou Big Boy; struggled a bit since winning a handicap at Tamworth in April; this looks a decent race so has questions to answer.
RSIS
Started 7/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last time at Tamworth. Has a nice turn of foot. Betting is the best guide.
Career
21: 2-2-3
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Inverell
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
16: 2-2-3
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
11: 1-1-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -53%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Handily placed and gave his all at Tamworth over this journey at healthy odds. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Did well to run 3rd beaten by 1L last time at Tamworth. Possible place chance.
RP
Solid performance to finish third at 28-1 at Tamworth two weeks ago with two of these rivals behind; all his winning form has come at Tamworth (two successes).
RSIS
Kept traping on when 3rd last start at Tamworth.
Career
60: 5-5-9
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Armidale
2: 0-0-1
Track Mudgee
3: 1-0-1
Track Gilgandra
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
6: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
14: 1-1-3
Distance 1217m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
34: 1-4-5
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
16: 3-1-3
Jockey Booking
Negative
Anna Weatherlake current POT is 21% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 45%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 40% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
On a short back-up. Reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Mudgee. Hard to warm to.
ILB
On a quick back up. At $12.00 finished 5th last start at Mudgee but back over more ground. Gets back and needs luck. Large claim helps. Needs a mighty effort to win this.
RP
Fair effort at Mudgee over 5½f (handicap) last Saturday; a course winner; largely disappointing since successful in a handicap at Moree three months ago; this is competitive and others are preferred.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Started at 11/1 and finished 5th last time at Mudgee but back to more ground. Prefers to settle towards the rear.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
AAP
Knuckled down really well for a narrow win at Forbes latest outing. Positive last start but needs to build further on that effort.
ILB
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Forbes and can find a nice position from the draw.
RP
Registered first success at the third time of asking at Forbes when winning by a short head three weeks ago in a maiden; much respected.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last start at Forbes and drawn nicely.
Career
43: 5-4-4
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
12: 2-1-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
9: 1-1-1
Distance 1100m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
15: 1-0-3
Going Good
17: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-2-1
Going Soft
20: 3-1-3
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished well held at Narromine. New to Moree. Not fancied.
ILB
Jumped at $6.00 and ran 6th last time at Narromine but dropping weight. Likely to get back in the field.
RP
Not disgraced in sixth over 6½f at Narromine (handicap) two weeks ago; others more persuasive as meeting a number of horses who are in good form.
RSIS
Odds of 5/1 and ran 6th last start at Narromine but will appreciate the drop in weight. Might have to make up considerable ground.