Shortest win price
Mahmudah (6)
3.20
Welcome to Kilmore for the Stephen King Memorial, a Benchmark 56 test over the 1612m journey on a Soft5 track under fine skies. As punters eye off the card, the win market has put Mahmudah right at the top of calculations, holding down the shortest quote ahead of Left Hook, Pomah, and Monsun's Pride rounding out the early fancies.
Digging into the form lines of the market principals, Mahmudah comes into this via a brave effort when fighting to the wire in a fillies and mares benchmark 56 at this very track. She has featured in both starts at Kilmore, and while she handles give in the ground, a heavy query remains if it gets too wet. Pomah sits further down the betting order and was safely held at Kyneton last time out, but has shown a liking for heavy conditions previously and rates respect. Monsun's Pride showed early pace on this course last time out before finding little at the business end, leaving some doubts.
Looking at the map and speed groups, we see Olympiad, Dance Lady, Mahmudah, and Toronova designated to push forward on the pace, while Monsun's Pride takes up the mantle as the solo leader. Left Hook, positioned in the midfield group, is another worth keeping an eye on as a value runner for the minors, having previously shown a liking for some give in the track despite failing to threaten at Cranbourne. It shapes as an intriguing yarn for punters looking to unravel a tricky country race.
Shortest win price
Mahmudah (6)
3.20
Most career wins
Cable De Vega
7-3-8 from 48 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Olympiad · Negative
Jockey Booking
Luke Currie current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Cheron Finale · Negative
Tricky Map
Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%
Dance Lady · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 61%
Monsun's Pride · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Career
8: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Currie current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 13%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 50% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (24-weeks). Broke his maiden over 1862m at Kyneton last campaign. Goes into wider exotics fresh in this affair.
ILB
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. At $10.00 lost ground in the run home when 7th last time at Echuca and down in distance. Hard to recommend with any confidence.
RP
Not beaten too far when seventh at Echuca over 1m2½f (handicap) in May; back from an absence here; this looks a decent race so is passed over.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Started at 9/1 and didn't threaten when 7th last start at Echuca and coming back in distance.
Career
8: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1717m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1746m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (27-weeks). Ex Jason Warren in Victoria. Broke her maiden over 1746m at Sale last campaign. Tuned up by recent trial.
ILB
Back from a 27 week break. Rocketed home when winning last run at Sale and has minimal work to do from the barrier. First start for a new trainer. Will find this tough.
RP
Shed maiden status at the seventh time of asking at Sale over 1m½f (maiden) in April, scoring by just over 1l; has shown some recent improvement; returns from a layoff here; representing new yard today; big player.
RSIS
Back after a 27 week break. Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Sale and has the ideal draw. First start for a new trainer.
Career
11: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 61%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Simon Zahra in good form, out performing market 40%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
AAP
On pace but folded up quickly this venue. On pacer. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
At $5.00 tailed off to finish 7th last start at this track. The wide gate shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Close up behind Monsun's Pride when seventh two weeks ago; has won here previously; she can be competitive at this level; successful in a handicap last month and one to watch out for.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and folded up in the straight when 7th last time here. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall.
Career
9: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
2: 1-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Chris Calthorpe striking at just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 54%
Key Jockey
Positive
Mitchell Aitken winning at 14% POT in last 100 rides
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
AAP
On pace but found little at the business end this course when second-up. Has early speed. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
Started at $18.00 and faded in the late stages when 4th last start at this venue. Has early speed and positions nicely. Chance and can measure up.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten just over 4l in fourth) two weeks ago; a few rivals look in good form so may be vulnerable.
RSIS
Started at 17/1 and faded away late when 4th last start at this track. Displays good tactical pace. Competitive type.
Career
48: 7-3-8
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
8: 0-0-0
Second-up
6: 0-1-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
5: 1-1-0
Track Kilmore
2: 0-0-1
Track Manangatang
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
7: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
33: 6-2-7
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 64%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Emerged from midfield to get up in final strides at Moe. Super fit from racing, capable of figuring again.
ILB
Dashed home to win last time at Moe. Going well this campaign. Modest hope.
RP
Narrow success in a handicap (Moe) two weeks ago; in the mix.
RSIS
Ran over the top of them when winning last start at Moe. Tracking very well of late.
Career
14: 1-3-2
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
11: 0-2-2
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fought bravely to the wire in the 3yo+ F&M (Bm56) this track. Soft tick, heavy query. Featured both times here. Can have a major say with even breaks.
ILB
Made some ground late when 2nd last start at the track. Should be rolling forward early from the wide barrier. Could be in the mix.
RP
Finished runner-up when beaten just over 1l over 7f here (handicap) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Flashed home late into 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last run around here. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall. Respect the betting.
Career
8: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
2: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1454m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-2-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 12%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -51% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 20%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Started $9 when safely held in Benchmark 56 company at Kyneton. Proven on heavy. Right in this.
ILB
At $9.00 faded to finish 6th last start at Kyneton. Overlooking the last run and drawn nicely. Good winning chance.
RP
Beaten 6l in sixth over 7f at Kyneton (handicap) three weeks ago; can be a player at this level; shown she can get her head in front so one to be interested in.
RSIS
Odds of 8/1 and tailed off to finish 6th last time at Kyneton. Has the potential to improve sharply and has a positive stall. Should go close.
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Midfield
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
AAP
Raced on the pace and went down in a thrilling stoush at Warrnambool. Placed only other run at Kilmore. Key contender.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Started at $3.90 and ran 5th last time at Warrnambool.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Odds of 3/1 and ran 5th last time at Warrnambool.
Career
13: 1-3-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 1-2-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Failed to threaten at Cranbourne at healthy odds. Likes some give in the track. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Started at $20.00 and was ordinary when 9th last run at Cranbourne. Should improve from the last run and facing weaker opposition. Will go close.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 (Cranbourne) three weeks ago; form has an uneven look to it and low strike-rate of 1-13; this line-up contains some strong opposition so hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started at 19/1 and not up to scratch when 9th last start at Cranbourne. Capable of a strong comeback and going down in class. Will be fighting out the finish.
Career
27: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-1-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
6: 0-1-0
Distance 2200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
13: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Gordon Strang striking at just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 61%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
On a short back-up. Unable to make an impression at Alexandra for new trainer. Been racing at the picnics.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Started at $11.00 and subpar when 6th last time at Alexandra. Does take a while to get into stride. Tough race will need luck.
RP
Last of six over 7½f at Alexandra (handicap) on her first start for this trainer at the weekend; infrequent winner; this looks a decent race so makes little appeal.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 10/1 and mediocre display when 6th last start at Alexandra. Prefers to settle towards the rear. Large claim helps.
Career
80: 4-6-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
5: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 0-1-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
2: 0-0-0
Track Stony Creek
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1217m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-0-0
Going Good
22: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
14: 0-2-1
Going Soft
30: 1-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Liana Wood 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Finished well down the track in 3yo+ (Bm62) at Cranbourne last outing. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Odds of $151.00 and gave away some ground when 11th last run at Cranbourne but competing in a less challenging grade. Liana Wood provides some weight relief. Very unlikely to cause an upset.
RP
11th of 12 when dropped in distance (Cranbourne) 21 days ago; not won for some time now; facing a testing assignment and is passed over.
RSIS
At 150/1 looked outclassed when 11th last run at Cranbourne but competing in a lower grade. The large claim from Liana Wood helps.