Shortest win price
Adieu Grasse (3)
2.80
Kilmore is hosting the Paul 'Pegsy' Egan Memorial at 4:00 pm AEDT over 1112 metres on a Soft 5 track with fine conditions. The win market is led by Adieu Grasse, with Siriusly Bright and Heidi Dancer next in the order, followed by Elena Montero. This is a Benchmark 56 handicap for three-year-olds and up, and the shorter-priced runners suggest genuine contention across the field.
Adieu Grasse is shortest and carries 62 kilograms with Luke Currie aboard for trainer Rhys Archard. The form line shows a third at Echuca over 1000 metres and another third at Kilmore itself over 1100 metres, both on better going. The comment flags a brave finishing effort at Echuca, though the heavy query hangs over proceedings. Siriusly Bright, second pick, sits on the Leader speedMap and returns for a second campaign after 20 weeks away. The stable combination is outperforming market expectations dramatically, and despite a negative rider change today, the form from a Ballarat win and Bendigo second suggests capability fresh. Elena Montero is fourth in the market at 60.5 kilograms; she was placed only once at Kilmore and is freshened after two Bendigo runs where she was comfortably beaten off pace. Her rating of 100 places her right in this affair despite the weight.
Heidi Dancer maps on pace from barrier one and rates at 100, though recent runs at Seymour and Mornington have yielded nothing to write home about. The early pace shape looks to be set by Siriusly Bright as the Leader, with Adieu Grasse and Heidi Dancer both on pace. Strike Gold and Elena Montero sit back off that, while Helluva Barty and Snow On Her occupy the offmidfield. The data suggests Adieu Grasse's form and track record at Kilmore offer compelling value in the context of this field, yet Siriusly Bright's stable angle and fresh-up record warrant respect if even breaks eventuate.
Shortest win price
Adieu Grasse (3)
2.80
Most career wins
Strike Gold
5-3-4 from 39 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Helluva Barty · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Adieu Grasse · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 43% lower than Career Avg.
Strike Gold · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Siriusly Bright · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Career
30: 3-5-4
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
8: 2-0-2
Second-up
7: 1-2-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
5: 3-0-1
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
9: 2-1-1
Distance 1000m
12: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
20: 3-3-3
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 41%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 41% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Not disgraced at Warrnambool at $15. Hard fit, one for multiples.
ILB
Jumped at $15.00 and weakened under pressure when 6th last start at Warrnambool but will find this grade easier. Will be motoring home late. Jade Smith takes a large claim. Can surprise at a nice price.
RP
Not beaten that far over 6f at Warrnambool (handicap) two weeks ago; could be dangerous as pick of form offers some encouragement.
RSIS
Odds of 14/1 and gave away some ground when 6th last start at Warrnambool but drops back to a suitable grade. Will be trying to topple them late.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
AAP
Not disgraced in rain affected going at Bairnsdale. Can make his presence felt with even luck.
ILB
Jumped at $4.40 and showed some merit late when 4th last time at Bairnsdale. Liana Wood provides some weight relief.
RSIS
Started 10/3 and moved through the field into 4th last time at Bairnsdale. Large claim helps.
Career
6: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 43% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 251%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 50% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 24%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Fought bravely to the wire in the 3yo+ (Bm56) at Echuca. Soft tick, heavy query. Major player here despite big impost.
ILB
Finished well when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Echuca. In good racing form since coming back from a spell. Prefer others.
RP
Has been fairly consistent of late; produced an encouraging effort (third of 12, beaten just over 1l) over 5f at Echuca (handicap) 11 days ago; likely to be involved.
RSIS
Made considerable ground when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Echuca. Showing great form since returning from a break.
Career
39: 5-3-4
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1340m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
7: 0-1-2
Going Good
23: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Key Rider
Positive
Mitchell Aitken 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Long winning drought. On pace but conceded late at Echuca. Can lead or take a sit. Hard fit, one for exotics.
ILB
Jumped at $17.00 and came in 6th last start at Echuca. Not without a chance.
RP
Managed just one success in his career to date; finished sixth but only beaten 2½l at Echuca over 6f (handicap) last week; not hard to turn elsewhere as not in the habit of winning recently.
RSIS
Odds of 16/1 and finished 6th last start at Echuca. Watch the betting.
Career
3: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-1-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 939%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 24%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Returns for second campaign (20-weeks). Capable of making an impact fresh in this affair with even breaks.
ILB
Resuming after a spell. Pulled away to win by a margin of 3 1/4L last start at Ballarat on a heavy track and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Easy maiden winner when registering her first success at the third time of asking at Ballarat five months ago; returns from a break today; strong claims.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Found another gear when winning by 3 1/4L last run at Ballarat and good career start. Should race on the pace. Showing improvement in recent outings. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
Career
17: 2-1-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 1-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-0-2
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-1-4
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 468%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 40 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened. Off pace and comfortably beaten at Bendigo second-up. Placed only other run at Kilmore. Plenty of weight but right in this.
ILB
Was $9.50 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at Bendigo. Giving another go here. The large claim from Chelsea Thompson should help. Good chance in this.
RP
Form is hit and miss; not disgraced in sixth (Bendigo) last month; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started 17/2 and was well beaten when 6th last run at Bendigo. Likely to bounce back. Chelsea Thompson provides some weight relief. Solid prospects.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 145%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Jason Warren in good form, out performing market 111%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 86% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn winning at 32% POT in last 100 rides
AAP
Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely in choppy conditions in the 3yo+ (Bm56) at Bairnsdale when second-up. Ready to peak third-up. Can lead or take a sit. Stripping fitter, highly rated in this line-up.
ILB
Faded at the finish when 2nd last time at Bairnsdale.
RSIS
Peaked on the run when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last time at Bairnsdale.
Career
6: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1009m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Failed to threaten at Seymour second-up as an outsider. Query wet. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Tailed off to finish 10th last start at Seymour. Can show a better performance this time and facing a weaker grade. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Serious contender.
RP
Towards the rear of 13 at Seymour over 5f (handicap) 19 days ago; if recent form can be forgiven, interesting based on win three runs ago; in with a chance.
RSIS
Looked outclassed when 10th last start at Seymour. May see an upturn in form and going down in grade. Blinkers go on for the first time. Very tidy performer.
Career
69: 9-14-7
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-2-1
Third-up
5: 1-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-2
Track Deniliquin
1: 0-1-0
Track Tumbarumba
1: 0-1-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 0-1-0
Distance 1175m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 1-0-0
Going Firm
4: 0-2-0
Going Good
37: 6-6-4
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 41%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 41% Profit on Turnover
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Sent out $18 when unable to threaten at Tatura. Main chink in her armour has been heavy tracks. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Started at $18.00 and average at best when 7th last run at Tatura but gets the perfect draw. Might be ridden for luck.
RP
Finished seventh, beaten 7l, at Tatura last month; has not been firing consistently; others are preferred.
RSIS
Started 17/1 and subpar when 7th last time at Tatura but can save some energy from the draw. Likely to settle back in the field.
Career
10: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
6: 1-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field at Mildura first run back. Fitter second-up. Untried in wet going. Among the dangers.
ILB
Jumped at $7.00 and advanced late into 5th last start at Mildura. Solid chance.
RP
Not disgraced when fifth of seven over 5f at Mildura (handicap) 24 days ago; she can be taken on.
RSIS
Started at 6/1 and moved ahead of some to finish 5th last start at Mildura. Chance and can measure up.
Career
40: 2-1-5
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Berrigan
2: 0-0-0
Track Ceduna
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1414m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 2-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-1-1
Going Unknown
5: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Last win was 28 Jul 2024. Ridden cold and never in the picture at Kyneton. Facing an uphill task.
ILB
Started $61.00 and gave away some ground when 7th last start at Kyneton. Does take a while to get into stride. In a lot of trouble.
RP
A long time since her last win; beaten a fair way when seventh over 6f at Kyneton (handicap) last week; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Started 60/1 and lost ground in the run home when 7th last start at Kyneton. Likely to get back in the run.