Shortest win price
Terracotta Warrior (8)
2.40
Welcome to Kilmore on a fine afternoon for the Robert 'Chappy' Chapman Memorial Mdn Plate over the 1462m trip on a Soft 5 surface. The win market lines up with Terracotta Warrior heading the early betting order, closely followed by Savfield, Perfect Riposte, and Mystic Rapture in the market proper as punters look to dissect this tricky maiden puzzle.
Looking into the form behind those shorter prices, Terracotta Warrior sits at the head of affairs after a debut effort at Pakenham over 1200m where it wasn't far from the action, and is out of a camp that maps well at this track. Savfield comes from a top stable by a champion NZ sire and showed ability in a Flemington jumpout, while Mystic Rapture is freshened up after trailing and battling at double-figure odds over 1450m here last time out. Perfect Riposte represents the Hayes stable off a good Seymour jumpout win, adding plenty of intrigue to the race narrative.
Further down the speed maps and fields, Terracotta Warrior is marked as a leader who maps well for this track, whereas speed groups show runners like Dempsey and Mystic Rapture pushing forward on-pace. Other debutants and light form lines such as Sir Riverance and Stash Royale add extra texture to the yarn, making it a fascinating contest where the market moves and early speed maps will tell the true story before they jump at 2:30 pm AEDT.
Shortest win price
Terracotta Warrior (8)
2.40
Back left · leaders right
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Leader
Dempsey · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Sir Riverance · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Mystic Rapture · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Perfect Riposte · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 43% lower than Career Avg.
Career
11: 0-0-3
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Ernie Francese striking at just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 79%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 77% Profit on Turnover
Key Jockey
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf winning at 18% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
AAP
Failed to threaten at Cranbourne first run back as a despised outsider. Building fitness. Only for exotics.
ILB
At $101.00 faded away to finish 10th last run at Cranbourne. Yet to break maiden status after 11 starts. Needs to find a lot more.
RP
Has arguably shown improved form the last twice but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 11; beaten a long way over 7f at Cranbourne (maiden) three weeks ago; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Was 100/1 and struggled with the pace when 10th last run at Cranbourne. Trying to win after 11 runs.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). $120k purchase. Out of a winning mare. Looked a bit sharper in latest jumpout suggesting well on track for debut. Should be highly competitive.
ILB
4yo first starter sired by Sweynesse for trainer Michael, Wayne And John Hawkes. Watch the betting.
RSIS
Initial race appearance 4yo by Sweynesse for trainer Michael, Wayne And John Hawkes.
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
Dam was unraced. Well beaten in both of his jumpouts. Prefer to wait and see what he does.
ILB
4yo runner on debut by Performer for Robbie Griffiths. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Gelded already; first rules outing for this four-year-old son of Performer; is capable of making an impact.
RSIS
Performer 4yo trained by Robbie Griffiths on debut. Watch early betting.
Career
14: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-1
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1102m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 68%
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Trailed, clearly outgunned and flat to line this track at double-figure odds. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
Came in 4th last start here. Has the necessary speed to overcome the wide draw. Forward showing expected.
RP
Found life tough when 9l back in fourth last month; winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 14; others more likely.
RSIS
Ran 4th last time at this venue. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw. Capable type.
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Firststart
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 43% lower than Career Avg.
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 62%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 47% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 50% in L100 rides
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Dam was unraced. In good hands and looked good winning a Seymour jumpout. Big watch on debut.
ILB
Initial appearance 3yo by Savabeel for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch the market moves.
RP
Already a gelding; New Zealander bred; there's hope from the sire that he has some ability; related to Sting In The Tail (winner from 7½f up to 1m3f); trainer can prepare one to win first time out; should be in the mix as some good aspects to his profile and the hot form of the stable is a bonus.
RSIS
3yo by Savabeel having initial appearance for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Betting is the best guide.
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
By champion NZ sire. Dam's only other foal to race is a maiden. From top stable and showed ability in a Flemington jumpout. Betting may provide a clearer picture.
ILB
3yo by Savabeel having first race start for trainer Christian Frederick Waller. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
New Zealander bred; already gelded; stable capable of preparing a newcomer to win; sire gets his share of decent sorts; should not be far away with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Savabeel 3yo having first start for Christian Frederick Waller.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Returns for second campaign (18-weeks). Unremarkable debut performance at Ballarat Synthetic at wide odds 26 Jun. Well held in recent Ballarat jumpout.
ILB
Resuming. At $71.00 lacklustre showing when 9th last time Ballarat Synthetic but was on debut last time. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Others are more appealing.
RP
Finished ninth of 11 on his debut at Ballarat at 66-1 four months ago; returns from a layoff; must now step up.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Was 70/1 and average performance when 9th last start Ballarat Synthetic but fitter for debut run. Likely to get back.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Second campaign (24-weeks). Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Pakenham. More mature now and ran 2nd in a Cranbourne jumpout. Worth thought.
ILB
Fresh today after a break. At $8.00 was well beaten when 6th last time at Pakenham. Has the ability to turn things around and was a debutant last start. Will run close.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten 3l) on his debut at Pakenham at 7-1 in May; returns from a break today; will need to step up from his racecourse introduction.
RSIS
Back after break. Was 7/1 and looked outclassed when 6th last run at Pakenham. Expected to rebound and having second career run. Should race on the pace. Strong chance.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Failed to stamp herself on the race at Cranbourne debut when drifting in the betting 16 Oct. Experience gained. Extra ground may help. Hope for exotics only.
ILB
Was $12.00 and tailed off to finish 9th last time at Cranbourne. Can show a better performance this time and fitter for debut run. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
RP
Came home ninth over 6f on her debut at Cranbourne at 11-1 14 days ago; stable has been going through a quiet spell; needs to make above-average progress.
RSIS
At 11/1 was well beaten when 9th last run at Cranbourne. Has the potential to improve sharply and having second race start. Will attract plenty of interest.
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Firststart
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). Dam's best horse to race won four races in WA. Jumpouts have been sound but odds may prove best guide here.
ILB
3yo debutant by Dash For Cash for Lee Hope And Shannon Hope and can find a nice position from the draw. Watch betting.
RP
This daughter of Dash For Cash makes first rules appearance; arguably the one to beat with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
3yo first starter by Dash For Cash for trainer Lee Hope And Shannon Hope and gets a favourable stall. Blinkers go on for the first time.
Career
19: 0-4-4
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Orange
5: 0-2-2
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1980m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 0-4-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (23-weeks). Not fancied.
ILB
Fresh today. Was $31.00 and didn't threaten when 11th last start at Stawell. Entitled to be a big price.
RP
He can be competitive at this level; finished 11th of 12 at Stawell over 1m (maiden) five months ago; returns from a layoff.
RSIS
First run back. Odds of 30/1 and didn't find the line when 11th last time at Stawell.
Career
11: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Sent out $151 when unable to threaten at Pakenham Synthetic. New to Kilmore. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Lost ground in the run home when 10th last run at Pakenham Synthetic.
RP
Can be a player at this level; finished tenth of 12 over 7f at Pakenham (maiden) 25 days ago.
RSIS
Didn't attack the line when 10th last run at Pakenham Synthetic.
Career
33: 0-4-6
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-2
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 2221m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
26: 0-3-6
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Seymour after lengthy absence. Long time a maiden and hard to trust.
ILB
Gave away some ground when 14th last run at Seymour.
RP
Useful in this grade; finished last of 14 at Seymour over 6f (maiden) 19 days ago.
RSIS
Lost ground in the run home when 14th last time at Seymour.
Career
25: 0-1-4
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Healesville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
6: 0-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 7.5kg from LS run
AAP
On a quick back-up. Latest form okay but well entrenched in the maiden ranks. No match in a three-horse contest at Alexandra. Sterner task awaits.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Nice run when 3rd last time at Alexandra and drawn well. In top form since returning from a spell. Does take a while to get into stride.
RP
Last of three over 6½f at Alexandra (maiden) at the weekend; string of consistent efforts of late but hasn't been able to quite get her neck in front.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Was competitive when 3rd last start at Alexandra and drawn well. Exhibiting good form recently. Prefers to settle towards the tail.