Shortest win price
Rwanda (9)
2.90
Welcome to Kilmore for the Bryce Menzies Memorial Mdn Plate over the 1112m trip. The track is rated a Soft 5 with fine weather overhead for this 3:00 pm AEDT maiden clash. Looking at how the win market is shaping up for punters, Rwanda sits right at the top of the order, closely followed by Kirkstone, All Eyes On Erin, and Saint Willo rounding out the leading group of the yarn.
Digging into the form lines behind those shorter prices reveals some intriguing angles. Rwanda steps out for the first time for trainers M Price & M Kent Jnr with Thomas Stockdale in the saddle, boasting an eye-catching $950k price tag and a tidy trial record. Kirkstone is another newcomer holding a prominent market spot, representing the stable of Ben, Will & Jd Hayes with Luke Currie aboard; this runner is a $200k purchase out of a winning mare and comes to hand via strong jumpouts. Further down, Saint Willo resumes for the Hayes yard from barrier 10 after finishing fourth on debut at Bendigo over 1100m on a soft track back in June, and looks fitter following two Pakenham jumpouts.
For punters searching further down the winMarketOrder, All Eyes On Erin offers another piece of the puzzle starting from barrier 6 for trainer Thomas Carberry and jockey Neil Farley. This runner showed improvement at the second race start when finishing second at Ballarat over 1000m on a good surface, though past records suggest she may be fighting for the minor placings here. With a mix of unraced talent and lightly raced improvers lining up across various speed maps, it should prove to be an interesting contest.
Shortest win price
Rwanda (9)
2.90
Back left · leaders right
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Leader
Dagger One · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Riverlea Royal · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Youmanetic · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Saint Willo · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
First-up (22-weeks). Placed at Hanging Rock first-up last campaign and has jumped out well in preparation for this. Not the roughest.
ILB
First up and nice run when 2nd first up last preparation at Hanging Rock.
RSIS
Resuming and in the money when 2nd resuming last preparation at Hanging Rock.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Mitchell Aitken 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Second campaign (23-weeks). Well beaten at Geelong prior to spell. Looks up against it.
ILB
First up from a spell. Jumped at $19.00 and had difficulty when 10th last run at Geelong. Blinkers go off for the first time. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Yet to manage better than fourth in his three races; finished towards the rear of 13 at Geelong five months ago; returns from an absence here; others more appealing.
RSIS
Resuming from break. Started 18/1 and lacked competitiveness when 10th last start at Geelong. Blinkers go off for the first time. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 59%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (61-days). Well down the track at Echuca on debut at huge odds. Has an adverse draw. Much to learn and others carry more punch.
ILB
Resuming after a break. Started at $151.00 and was well beaten when 9th last time at Echuca but was on debut last time. Will need to find a new peak.
RP
Held on his debut at Echuca in first-time blinkers at 150-1 in August; will need to step up from his racecourse introduction.
RSIS
Resumes from a break. Started 150/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last time at Echuca but having second race start.
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Firststart
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 68%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 72% Profit on Turnover
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
$70k purchase. Out of a half-sister to the stakes winner Glaswegian. Has shown talent in two Flemington jumpouts. Rates highly.
ILB
4yo by Hello Youmzain racing as a debutant for Mark Kavanagh & Levi Kavanagh. Watch early betting.
RP
New Zealander bred; this son of Hello Youmzain makes debut under rules; needs considering as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
First appearance at the races 4yo by Hello Youmzain for trainer Mark Kavanagh & Levi Kavanagh.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Encouraging debut performance at Echuca 19 Oct. Took valuable lessons. Right in this.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by more than 2 1/2L last start at Echuca and was on debut last time.
RP
Not beaten too far (2½l) on his debut at Echuca at 6-1 11 days ago; should be better for that run.
RSIS
Managed to run into 3rd last start at Echuca and having second career run.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 62%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 47% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (18-weeks). Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Bendigo when drifting in the betting 25 Jun. Fitter for two Pakenham jumpouts.
ILB
Back after a spell. Started $8.00 and ran past a few when 4th last run at Bendigo and was a debutant last start. Serious contender.
RP
Not beaten too far (3l) on his debut at Bendigo at 7-1 four months ago; returns from a layoff here; hard to see him getting off the mark second time up.
RSIS
Fresh after a break. Started 7/1 and was making up some late ground when 4th last run at Bendigo and having second career run. Gets a chance against these.
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Thomas Carberry striking at just 4%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 50%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Reined back to last from the wide gate, wound up at Ballarat at her second race start. Only for the minors here.
ILB
Good performance to run into 2nd beaten by 2 1/4L last time at Ballarat. Competitive type.
RP
Solid run when second at 25-1 over 5f at Ballarat (maiden) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd last run at Ballarat. Capable type.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Firststart
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Currie current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 62%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 47% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 50% in L100 rides
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
$200k purchase. Out of a winning mare. In good hands and has jumped out well. Keep safe.
ILB
3yo debutant sired by Ole Kirk for Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch the market.
RP
Stable can ready a newcomer; related to multiple race winner Mizella (5f-1m); a major contender as some good aspects to her profile and the trainer is hot at the moment.
RSIS
3yo by Ole Kirk having first race appearance for Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Betting as a guide.
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
AAP
Trials (1:0-1-0). $950k purchase. Out of a stakes-placed mare. Nicely bred and has shown talent in jumpouts and trials. Go well.
ILB
3yo debutant by Snitzel for trainer Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) and has a positive draw. Interesting to see the tongue tie go on for the first time. Follow the money.
RP
Related to 1m1½f winner Iron Legend; trainer can ready one; sire capable of getting smart offspring; looks a likely player.
RSIS
Snitzel 3yo having first race appearance for trainer Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) and has a positive stall. Respect the betting.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Holly Durnan 34% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 102%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 24%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (19-weeks). Failed to stamp herself on the race at Geelong debut but did win a recent Flemington jumpout. Expect improvement.
ILB
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Was $12.00 and struggled with the pace when 10th last start at Geelong but having second race start.
RP
Held tenth of 11 but was making her first appearance at Geelong at 11-1 four months ago; returns from a layoff; must make above-average progress to figure.
RSIS
First run back after a break. Started at 11/1 and lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Geelong but was on debut last time.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 13%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
AAP
Dam's only other foal to race is a maiden. Looked good winning a Flemington jumpout a fortnight ago. Respect her.
ILB
3yo by Fierce Impact having first race appearance for Tony Mcevoy & Calvin Mcevoy. Market as guide.
RSIS
Tony Mcevoy & Calvin Mcevoy trained 3yo by Fierce Impact having first race start.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 13%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Two runs to date have been lacklustre. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Started at $9.50 and lacklustre showing when 7th last time at Mildura. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Solid chance.
RP
Beaten 11l (seventh) over 5f at Mildura (maiden) 24 days ago.
RSIS
Was 17/2 and mediocre display when 7th last run at Mildura. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Should go very close.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 39% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Dylan Dunn 56% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn winning at 32% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 24%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On pace but found little at the business end at Seymour at second outing. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and ran 7th last time at Seymour. Looks hopeful.
RP
Seventh beaten just over 5l at Seymour over 6f (maiden) 19 days ago.
RSIS
Started at 150/1 and finished 7th last run at Seymour.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
AAP
Freshened. Unplaced in all 5 runs to date. On pace but found little at the business end this venue. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Started at $151.00 and ran 5th last start at the track. Should jump out and bowl along. Seems unlikely.
RP
Not beaten that far in fifth (just under 5l) last month.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and came in 5th last run at this track. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (26-weeks). Shown little to date. Wasn't really up to it in her earlier campaigns and prefer to see off the long break. Ordinary stats. Looking to others.
ILB
Fresh after break of 26 weeks. Jumped at $20.00 and ran 8th last time at Deniliquin but drawn well. Expected to settle towards the rear. Coming back in trip. Cannot make a case for.
RP
Finished eighth, beaten 11l, over 7f at Deniliquin (maiden) in April; returns from a break today.
RSIS
Fresh after a 26 week break. At 19/1 ran 8th last start at Deniliquin but has minimal work to do from the draw. Back to a shorter distance.