Shortest win price
Frose (4)
4.80
Welcome to Naracoorte for the Kerkhof Concrete Hcp (54) over 1100m on a Good 4 track under fine weather conditions. Punters looking at the win market see Ambello holding down the top spot in the order, closely followed by Spike Almighty, Frose, and Boltonova as the early elect in betting. It shapes as a fascinating restricted contest where speed maps and recent minor placings will play a massive role in sorting out the winner when they jump at 5:20 pm AEDT.
The form lines behind the market principals suggest a few compelling stories. Ambello arrives with a rating of 100 after going close at Coleraine before finishing second, prominent and fighting hard in Benchmark 52 company at Avoca, making a strong case in this race. Spike Almighty sits right up near the top of betting as well, having made some headway without troubling the winner over 900m at Mount Gambier first run back; trainer Sharni Julian saddles him up fitter second-up here over 1100m where he gets a chance to improve. Frose is another seasoned performer quoted prominently, having finished within striking distance at Bendigo over 1000m and keeping up solid efforts this campaign as an on-pacer.
Further down the order, Boltonova represents an interesting angle for punters chasing some value at odds. Trained by Brett Campbell, this runner showed early speed before weakening in the run home at Balaklava over 1200m and previously finished fourth at Jamestown. With speed groups featuring leaders like Frose, Boltonova, and Ratnaraj mixing it up early against off-pace contenders such as Ambello, Spike Almighty, and Gopher Frank, this Naracoorte dash should offer a cracking yarn once the gates open.
Shortest win price
Frose (4)
4.80
Most career wins
Frose
10-8-4 from 67 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Spike Almighty · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Zuetoro · Negative
Well beaten LS
Not competitive last run
Ambello · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 32% better than Career Avg.
Frose · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Career
10: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -30%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made some headway without troubling at Mt Gambier first run back. Fitter second-up and the longer trip helps. Placed only other time here. Not out of this.
ILB
Started $13.00 and hit the line well when 5th last time at Mount Gambier. Others are more appealing.
RP
He can be competitive at this level; not disgraced when fifth at Mt Gambier over 4½f (handicap) three weeks ago; could have a say with so many of these having something to prove and has proved he knows how to win.
RSIS
At 12/1 picked up some ground to run 5th last run at Mount Gambier.
Career
23: 3-1-2
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 975m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 1-0-0
Going Good
13: 3-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Started $20 when safely held in Benchmark 56 company at Balaklava. Can make his presence felt if things pan out.
ILB
At $20.00 gave away some ground when 10th last time at Balaklava. Strong prospects.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 13 (Balaklava) last month; useful in this grade; if recent form can be forgiven, interesting based on win three runs ago; entitled to respect.
RSIS
Odds of 19/1 and folded up in the straight when 10th last start at Balaklava. Can win.
Career
55: 4-7-11
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 1-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Casterton
3: 1-0-1
Track Clare
2: 0-1-0
Track Coleraine
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
12: 1-2-4
Distance 1200m
17: 2-3-2
Going Good
37: 2-6-7
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
15: 1-1-4
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 32% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Melissa Julius 47% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 94%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Melissa Julius in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 47%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Handy competitor. Went close at Coleraine 25 Sep. Prominent and went down fighting in the Benchmark 52 company at Avoca. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Tidy effort when 2nd last run at Avoca. Commands respect.
RP
Just denied over 6f at Avoca (handicap) last month; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Tidy run when 2nd last time at Avoca. Capable of winning this.
Career
67: 10-8-4
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
7: 1-1-1
Second-up
6: 0-2-0
Third-up
6: 3-1-0
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
2: 0-1-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 955m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
43: 8-3-2
Going Soft
14: 2-1-2
Going Synthetic
16: 4-1-0
Going Good
33: 4-6-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Jamie Barry in good form, out performing market 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 41% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Seasoned performer. Finished within striking distance 3yo+ Hcp (56) at Bendigo. On pacer. A few runs under her belt this campaign, right in the mix.
ILB
At $14.00 outmatched late when 4th last start at Bendigo. Likely to be well placed early. Struggling this campaign with no placings from 8 attempts. Will need its best to find a place.
RP
She can be competitive at this level and running consistently; fair effort over 5f at Bendigo (handicap) 15 days ago; clear chance if backing up last run.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and lost ground late when 4th last start at Bendigo. Shows good early pace. Struggling of late with no placings from 8 attempts.
Career
19: 2-0-2
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track Penola
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 905m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 2-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 38% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Jacob Opperman 46% above market expected in L100 Rides
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Long winless run. Never better than midfield in the Hcp (56) at Mt Gambier first run back. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Started at $12.00 and ran 6th last time at Mount Gambier. Happy to overlook that run. Has definite claims.
RP
All his winning form has come at Mt Gambier (two successes) and not seen the winners' enclosure for a while now (last win in 2024); finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) over 4½f at Mt Gambier (handicap) when dropped in distance last month; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started 11/1 and ran 6th last time at Mount Gambier. Can make a comeback. Has strong claims.
Career
14: 1-1-5
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Albury
4: 0-1-0
Track Wagga
4: 0-0-4
Track Corowa
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
6: 0-1-3
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1175m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-1-5
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Rachel Samsonenko striking at just 3%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 53%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (30-weeks). Ex Heath Maclean in NSW. Drawn to effect. Big watch under new trainer after long spell.
ILB
First up from a 30 week break. Jumped at $26.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last time at Canberra. Expecting to settle positively. Could feature here.
RP
Came home eighth, beaten 8l, at Canberra over 5f (handicap) in April; layoff to overcome; starts out for new stable; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
Resumes after a break of 30 weeks. Started 25/1 and didn't attack the line when 8th last run at Canberra. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Watch the betting.
Career
14: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Dunkeld
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
7: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Andrew Stead 39% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely at Mt Gambier at $19. Looks up against it.
ILB
Odds of $19.00 and weakened under pressure when 9th last time at Mount Gambier. Prefers to settle towards the tail. Hard to take.
RP
You have to go back a fair way to find his only win; not disgraced when ninth over 4½f at Mt Gambier (handicap) three weeks ago; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Started 18/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last time at Mount Gambier. Might be ridden for luck.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 10kg from LS run
AAP
Delivered a steely performance to score Rst Trophy (2) at Yea for new trainer. Picnic form.
ILB
Got the cash when winning by 1L last run at Yea and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races.
RSIS
Good win by 1L last time at Yea and getting better in recent performances.
Career
27: 3-3-1
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Donald
1: 1-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
4: 0-1-0
Distance 900m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
6: 1-1-0
Distance 1050m
6: 1-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 3-2-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Campbell striking at just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Weakened in run home at Balaklava. Has early speed. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Started at $8.00 and lost ground in the run home when 7th last run at Balaklava. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Strong prospects in this race.
RP
Finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) over 6f at Balaklava (handicap) last month; likely to go well as has bits and pieces of decent form.
RSIS
At 7/1 tailed off to finish 7th last run at Balaklava. Expecting to settle positively. Can take this out.
Career
13: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-0
Track Edenhope
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 27% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
AAP
Went home tamely at Mt Gambier first run back at $26. Strips in better shape. One for multiples.
ILB
Started at $26.00 and tailed off to finish 11th last time at Mount Gambier. Should muster plenty of early speed. Slight prospect.
RP
Had four of these rivals in front at Mt Gambier over 4½f (handicap) when last of 11 25 days ago; has a record of 1-13 and largely not been running well; passed over.
RSIS
Odds of 25/1 and struggled with the pace when 11th last run at Mount Gambier. Should muster plenty of early pace.
Career
31: 3-4-6
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 1-1-2
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-2-0
Track Nhill
1: 1-0-0
Track Hamilton
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
10: 0-0-2
Distance 1213m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1314m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-3-2
Going Heavy
7: 1-1-1
Going Soft
14: 2-0-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 71%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 75% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 52% in L100 rides
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
AAP
Let-up (42-days). Long winning drought. Sent out $12 when never got into the race at Mt Gambier over longer test. Not fancied.
ILB
Let up. At $12.00 clearly outclassed when 9th last time at Mount Gambier but drawn nicely. Will be hitting the line strongly. Coming back in distance. Strong claims.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 over 7f at Mt Gambier (handicap) 42 days ago; generally been out of sorts of late and a while since his last success; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Back from a let up. Odds of 11/1 and disappointing outing when 9th last time at Mount Gambier but will try to take advantage of the draw. Down in distance. One of the value chances in this race.
Career
43: 3-9-3
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 1-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Yarra Valley
3: 1-0-1
Track Stony Creek
4: 1-1-0
Track Edenhope
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
12: 2-3-0
Going Good
31: 3-6-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-2-0
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4.5kg weight here
AAP
Just missed at Manangatang 10 Oct. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Strathalbyn. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Odds of $16.00 and just average when 8th last start at Strathalbyn and rises in weight.
RP
Does not win very often and has not been firing consistently; out of the frame when eighth at Strathalbyn over 6f (handicap) last week; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Started at 15/1 and just average when 8th last time at Strathalbyn and has more weight to carry.
Career
36: 4-6-4
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Leader
First-up
7: 1-1-1
Second-up
5: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-1-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Naracoorte
6: 0-2-2
Track CurrentTrack
6: 0-2-2
Track Horsham
2: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
5: 2-0-1
Distance 906m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 911m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-3-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Brooke King 35% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Freshened since return. Effort tapered late after showing pace in the small field at Mt Gambier. Maps well. Among the dangers.
ILB
Back from a let up. Jumped at $4.00 and didn't attack the line when 6th last run at Mount Gambier but drawn well. Should go close.
RP
He meets the required standard ability wise; last of six over 4½f at Mt Gambier (handicap) six weeks ago, behind Unique Poet.
RSIS
Back from a freshen up. Odds of 3/1 and weakened under pressure when 6th last time at Mount Gambier but drawn the rails. Will be positive in the run early. Competitive type.
Career
24: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
3: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
2: 0-0-0
Track Kangaroo Island
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Long time since last saluted. Failed to threaten at Mt Gambier over longer assignment as an outsider. Drops to shorter trip. Needs to lift to figure. On trust.
ILB
At $81.00 faded away to finish 14th last start at Mount Gambier and will be facing a significant drop in distance. Likely to get back in the field. Others make far more appeal.
RP
This is his level; finished towards the rear of 15 at Mt Gambier over 7½f (handicap) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Was 80/1 and weakened to finish 14th last run at Mount Gambier and down in trip. Likely to get back.
Career
95: 2-7-8
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-0
Track St Arnaud
3: 0-0-0
Track Avoca
3: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
19: 0-2-2
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
25: 1-2-1
Going Soft
24: 0-3-2
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 32%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Was a long way from the action in 1100m 3yo+ (Bm56) at St Arnaud. Outsider and rightly so.
ILB
On a short back up. Struggled with the pace when 9th last time at St Arnaud.
RP
Held in ninth (St Arnaud) last month; she meets the required standard ability wise.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Couldn't stay in touch when 9th last time at St Arnaud.