Shortest win price
Cosmic Eagle (3)
2.35
Nowra hosts the Pelican Rocks Cafe Town Plate, a Class 1 handicap over 1200 metres on Good 3 going under overcast skies at 5:10 pm AEDT. The win market is anchored by Cosmic Eagle, with Macaroon next in, followed by Apiarist and Coco Dior. This is proper country racing—a mixed bag of maidens, recent winners, and a field that should give plenty of punters a story to tell.
Cosmic Eagle, shortest in the market, arrives off back-to-back wins at Newcastle and Rosehill, doing it hard from a wide gate at Newcastle after a long break. The rating sits at 100, and the form comment suggests genuine merit; Keagan Latham rides, though trainer G Ryan and S Alexiou are striking at just 9% this prep, which tempers the shine slightly. Macaroon, the second line of betting, cleared maiden ranks at Orange and shapes as a major player here—off pace but hit the line hard last start, and that Rating 99 pairs nicely with Amber Riddell's recent POT running 24% better than career average. Apiarist from barrier 6 has shown early form, winning a Maiden Plate at Bathurst, and Louise Day's current strike rate sits well below her career average, sometimes a tell that a return to form is brewing. Midfield runners Elivina, Cosmic Eagle, and Coco Dior will battle for positioning; Coco Dior's lone win came over this 1200 metres and Jean Van Overmeire has been outperforming expectations of late.
The speedMap tells us Macaroon will lead, with the midfield crew ready to press and Apiarist a deep finisher out of barrier 6. If early splits stay sound, that backmarker bias could suit; if the pace quickens, the midfield movers have room to improve. Coco Dior's previous win at 1200 metres and recent form in the second-up slot suggest there's juice here, though that Newcastle fail last time out on the quick backup is a blot. The yarn here is simple—maiden winners stepping up, seasoned types looking for redemption, and a maiden in Macaroon with enough recent brilliance to warrant respect.
Shortest win price
Cosmic Eagle (3)
2.35
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Elivina · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 45%
Cosmic Eagle · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Apiarist · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Coco Dior · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Career
8: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
8: 1-2-1
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Under a passive ride for new stable and ran on evenly 3yo+ Hcp (C1) at Kembla Grange. Not out of this.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Odds of $7.50 and moderate showing when 8th last time at Newcastle and going up in weight.
RP
Beaten 9l at Newcastle over 6½f (handicap) yesterday; a few rivals look in good form so others appeal more; held an entry at Newcastle Saturday.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Was 13/2 and disappointing effort when 8th last time at Newcastle and going up in weight.
Career
10: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 45%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (38-weeks). Placed at Kembla Grange first-up last campaign while returning off a Hawkesbury trial. Good gate. Can make her presence felt fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up and amongst the placegetters when 2nd beaten by 3/4L first up last preparation at Kembla Grange. Finished 5th in a trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 20th. Win will not surprise.
RP
Useful at this level; not disgraced when seventh of 13 at Kembla Grange over 1m (handicap) in February; back from an absence here; possibilities.
RSIS
Resuming and good performance to run into 2nd beaten by 3/4L resuming last preparation at Kembla Grange. Finished 5th in a trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 20th. Down in trip. Good value.
Career
11: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
G & S Ryan & Alexiou striking at just 9%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Did it hard both ends from the wide gate at Newcastle off long break. Rates highly.
ILB
Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Newcastle. Gets a solid chance here.
RP
Seems to be improving based on last two runs; opened her account scoring narrowly at Newcastle last month; despite that Newcastle success, makes little appeal.
RSIS
Stormed home to win last run at Newcastle. Expect support.
Career
3: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Louise Day current POT is 54% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Knuckled down strongly from back half to salute in the Mdn Plate Maiden 1100m at Bathurst. Up in grade now but stays under notice.
ILB
Picked up nicely to win last time at Bathurst. Likely to settle back in the field. Overlook from a betting angle.
RP
Registered first success at the third time of asking when winning by a short head at Bathurst last month in a maiden; big chance.
RSIS
Dashed home to win last run at Bathurst. Likely to get back.
Career
9: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
4: 0-2-2
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-1
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 47%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Broke maiden at Moruya 2 Oct. Failed to make an impression in the 3yo+ Midway Hcp (C1) at Newcastle. Lone victory was over this trip. Can challenge back in a country Class 1.
ILB
Was $7.00 and weakened under pressure when 6th last time at Newcastle. Has the potential to improve sharply. Blinkers go on for the first time. Expecting a strong showing.
RP
Beaten 5l when sixth of nine (Newcastle) last month; grade looks suitable and has raised her game the last twice; first-time blinkers now tried; successful in a maiden last month and likely to be a threat.
RSIS
Odds of 6/1 and didn't attack the line when 6th last start at Newcastle. Should improve. Blinkers go on for the first time. Has claims.
Career
3: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-1
Track Orange
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Cleared maiden ranks at Orange 8 Oct. Off pace, hit line forcefully at Orange last start. Drops to shorter trip. Major player here.
ILB
Placed 3rd last start at Orange and solid career start. Should come to hand quickly. Jockey Amber Riddell and trainer Bjorn Baker are a strong combination. Strong chance.
RP
Narrowly beaten and favourite at Orange over 7f (handicap) last month; should figure with Amber Riddell in the saddle a plus.
RSIS
Honest race when 3rd last start at Orange and good career start. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Amber Riddell and Bjorn Baker show promise as a combination. Will be in the finish.
Career
17: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-1-2
Jockey Booking
Positive
Mollie Fitzgerald 39% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Mollie Fitzgerald winning at 2% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Started $31 when safely held in Class 1 company at Kembla Grange after lengthy absence. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Jumped at $31.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last start at Kembla Grange. Gets back and needs luck. Facing a difficult task today.
RP
Subpar record of 1-17; finished tenth of 12 (Kembla Grange) last month; she can be taken on given many of her rivals are in good form.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and weakened under pressure when 10th last run at Kembla Grange. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Huge win after biding time at the rear this track at second outing. Looks capable of taking the next step.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Just missed last time at Wagga and promising career start. Has not missed the placings this preparation in 3 attempts.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Close to claiming the win last start at Wagga and promising career start. Been in the top three each attempt of late.
Career
6: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
3: 0-0-2
Track Goulburn
2: 0-1-0
Track Mudgee
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1080m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
David Pfieffer striking at just 13%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 160%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Back for second campaign (14-weeks). Sound campaign last time in, capped by a Mudgee win. Readied with two soft trials. Has some claims fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Resuming. Started at $6.00 and finished 6th last start at Canberra.
RP
Not beaten too far (2l) at Canberra Acton over 5½f (handicap) three months ago; running consistently; a lot on her plate here and others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Fresh from a break. Started at 5/1 and ran 6th last run at Canberra.
Career
4: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1310m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (50-days). Off pace, unable to muster and only battled home 7th at Kembla Grange. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Freshened up. Jumped at $16.00 and didn't attack the line when 7th last time at Kembla Grange. Could be in the mix.
RP
Not disgraced when seventh of eight over 7f at Kembla Grange (handicap) 50 days ago; others are preferred.
RSIS
Freshened up. Odds of 15/1 and weakened to finish 7th last start at Kembla Grange. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
17: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1020m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
11: 1-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Struggling
Negative
Doesn’t look to be going well
AAP
Dropped off the lead this venue. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Jumped at $91.00 and came in 4th last time at this track but has drawn the rails. Struggling this campaign. Large claim helps. Not interested today.
RP
Generally modest form since maiden success at Wagga in February; not disgraced when fourth of seven 14 days ago; may have to settle for supporting role with this looking like a hot contest; also engaged in race 6 at Nowra.
RSIS
Started at 90/1 and finished 4th last time around here but will appreciate a good stall. Struggling in recent runs. Large claim helps.
Career
17: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
6: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
9: 0-1-0
Going Good
10: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Amanda Turner striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -40%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 44%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 50% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Goulburn. Form falls short of this.
ILB
Odds of $31.00 and mediocre attempt when 7th last time at Goulburn. Few more classier types in this race.
RP
Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Goulburn (beaten 4½l) over 6½f (handicap) last month; track has proven suitable before; subpar since successful in a maiden at Nowra last November; he can be taken on as this could be a hot race.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and mediocre attempt when 7th last start at Goulburn.