Shortest win price
Powerful Prayer (1)
1.75
Welcome to Nowra for the South Coast Butchers Pantry Plate, a Class 1 set weights test over the staying trip of 2200m on a good 3 track under overcast skies. Jump time is locked in for 2:10 pm AEDT. Looking at the early win market order, punters have lined up Powerful Prayer as the shortest runner, closely followed by Babyfaced Assassin and Meritage. Mochima, The Ultimate Star, Torpedo Ted and Rawano round out the rest of the market order for this middle-distance clash.
The form behind the market leaders makes for an interesting yarn on the punt. Powerful Prayer jumps from barrier 7 for John Thompson with Keagan Latham in the saddle, now four weeks between runs. This capable stayer kept coming and just fell short when placing at Illawarra Grange over 2000m, suggesting this company suits. Meanwhile, Babyfaced Assassin draws barrier 2 for G Portelli with Winona Costin steering. This runner was just beaten in the handicap class 1 at Canberra over 2000m, and boasts a game second from its only other try over this track and distance, bringing plenty of appeal for another bold showing.
Looking further down the form lines, Meritage starts from barrier 5 with Mollie Fitzgerald for Bryce Heys, coming off a third at Canberra over 2000m where sectionals suggest it goes hard early. The added journey should assist this contender. Speed maps show Torpedo Ted taking up the early lead from barrier 3, while Babyfaced Assassin and The Ultimate Star press forward on pace, setting up a proper test of stamina over the 2200m trip for anyone brave enough to dive into the market.
Shortest win price
Powerful Prayer (1)
1.75
Most career wins
Powerful Prayer and Meritage
1 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Powerful Prayer · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Meritage · Positive
Key Jockey
Mollie Fitzgerald winning at 2% POT in last 100 rides
Babyfaced Assassin · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Mochima · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Career
16: 1-1-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-2
Track Canberra
2: 0-1-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-1-3
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 31 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Capable stayer. Kept coming and just fell short at Illawarra Grange. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Tidy run when 3rd last start at Illawarra Grange but up in weight. Looming as a major chance.
RP
Consistent performer; not beaten far last month (Illawarra Grange) back down to 1m2f in a handicap; he's a serious player if building on last performance.
RSIS
Competitive effort when 3rd last start at Illawarra Grange but has to carry more weight this time. Win bet the play.
Career
13: 1-4-0
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1880m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
5: 0-4-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-3-0
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Great run at Canberra 18 Sep. Not disgraced at Canberra. Should appreciate stepping up in distance. Looms large.
ILB
Jumped at $4.60 and moved through the field into 5th last run at Canberra.
RP
Producing consistent form; split Babyfaced Assassin and The Ultimate Star when fifth last Friday over 1m2f (conditions race) at Canberra; more than capable if on song so she should go close.
RSIS
Odds of 7/2 and made some ground when 5th last time at Canberra.
Career
12: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Key Jockey
Positive
Mollie Fitzgerald winning at 2% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Odds of $6.50 when made the frame at Canberra 9 Oct. Added journey should assist. Makes strong appeal.
ILB
Finished amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by 2 1/4L last start at Canberra. Major chance.
RP
On the premises when third of nine last month (Canberra) in a handicap; must be respected.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the placings when 3rd last run at Canberra. Strong chance.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Now 5 weeks between runs. Long time since last saluted. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Dubbo over this trip. Respect on previous sound form.
ILB
Jumped at $8.50 and below standard effort when 7th last time at Dubbo.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and underperformed when 7th last start at Dubbo.
Career
16: 0-2-4
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-2
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-2-3
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 41%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just beaten in the Hcp (C1) at Canberra. Game second only other time over this track and distance. Can challenge again.
ILB
Faded in the late stages of the race when 3rd beaten by 3/4L last time at Canberra and has a good draw. Getting better in recent performances. Great chance.
RP
Went close when third at Canberra over 1m2f (conditions race) last Friday (had two of these rivals behind); has arguably shown improved form the last twice but without a win after 17 runs; record suggests he is usually one to take on for win purposes so others more likely.
RSIS
Couldn't shake them off when 3rd last run at Canberra and gets a favourable draw. Displaying improvement over the past few runs. Can go close.
Career
10: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
4: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 44%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 36 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
5 weeks since last run. Plenty of chances, little return. Handily placed but lacked the necessary pick-up and battled to line at Kembla Grange. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 6th last start at Kembla Grange and facing a weaker grade. Will appreciate a good alley. Will need a big effort to win this.
RP
Without a win after ten attempts; held when sixth of 13 over 1m2f at Kembla Grange (conditions race) five weeks ago; this looks a fair heat so may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Odds of 150/1 and faded towards the finish when 6th last time at Kembla Grange and matched against less formidable competition. Drawn the rails.
Career
37: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
3: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
17: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
17: 0-0-1
Distance 1020m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
11: 0-0-1
Going Good
17: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
16: 0-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 147%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 68%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 72% Profit on Turnover
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ridden cold and never in the picture this track. Prefer others.
ILB
Started $81.00 and finished 8th last start here but returning to an increased distance. Likely to get back. Needs a mighty effort to win this.
RP
Eighth of 12 beaten 9l (dropped back to 7f) last month in a maiden; not threatened the judge of late and losing run stretches to 37; this looks a fair heat so others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Started 80/1 and ran 8th last run at the track but returning to more ground. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
8: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
2: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
4: 0-1-0
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 27% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -29%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 52%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Held midfield spot, couldn't summon enough late at Canberra. Has his first look at 2200m here. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Came in 6th last start at Canberra. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Beaten just under 3l last week when sent off 66-1 at Canberra upped to 1m2f; this line-up contains some strong opposition so has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Finished 6th last time at Canberra.
Career
20: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-1-0
Track Moruya
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2010m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 44%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Secured third in a staggered finish at Mudgee. New to Nowra. This looks more demanding.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Honest race when 3rd last time at Mudgee and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Should muster plenty of early toe. Difficult to warm to at present.
RP
Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice but without a win after 20 attempts; not disgraced when third of seven at Mudgee last Saturday in a handicap; others are preferred.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Came in 3rd last start at Mudgee and form has been improving over recent runs. Should race on the pace.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Found enough to place in small field at Bombala. First real test of stamina here. Finds a harder setup.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Was nothing special when 9th last start at Wagga but matched against lesser competition. Rising in trip.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Well beaten when 9th last time at Wagga but up against a less challenging field. Racing over a longer distance.