Shortest win price
Kokako (2)
2.20
Welcome to the final race on the program at Mornington where punters turn their attention to the Progress Signs BM66 over the 1200m scamper. The track is rated a Good 4 under an overcast sky, setting up a fair contest for all runners. Looking at the early win market order, Kokako leads the way at the top of the betting boards, closely followed by Ektifire, Artistic Genius, and Master Of The Air holding down the next lines in the market as the runners prepare for battle.
Diving into the form behind those shorter prices, Kokako returns from a nineteen-week break for trainer Lloyd Kennewell, sporting a very reliable first-up record of four attempts for three wins and a placing, and will be ridden by Jamie Melham from barrier seven. Artistic Genius lines up for P Koumis from barrier eight with Neil Farley in the saddle, arriving here with a bullish win at Morphettville over this trip two starts back before finishing third at Warrnambool, and boasts two wins from its last three outings to suggest it will be right in the thick of things again.
Further down the speed groups, Turned Down is marked as a leader from barrier six which could prove an advantage on this circuit despite a tricky map trend, while Master Of The Air comes out of barrier four as a backmarker carrying 59.5kg for Gavin Bedggood and Jamie Mott, having flashed fast finishing sectionals last start to grab third at Cranbourne and looking an interesting prospect for exotics punters searching for value.
Shortest win price
Kokako (2)
2.20
Most career wins
Artistic Genius
6-1-2 from 30 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Artistic Genius · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Kokako · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Turned Down · Negative
Tricky Map
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Master Of The Air · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
30: 6-1-2
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 2-0-0
Track Geelong
3: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 955m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
8: 2-0-0
Distance 1200m
8: 3-0-1
Going Good
18: 3-1-1
Going Heavy
6: 1-0-1
Going Soft
6: 2-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Won two from last three. Bullish win at Morphettville over this trip. On pacer. Super fit from racing, among the dangers again.
ILB
Bolted in when winning by close to 5 1/2L last start at Morphettville. Could feature here.
RP
Useful performance to win at Morphettville by 5½l last month; makes limited appeal despite that win at Morphettville.
RSIS
Spaced the field to win by close to 5 1/2L last start at Morphettville. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
8: 3-2-0
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 3-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
2: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 2-2-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 3 from 4 when resuming
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (19-weeks). Reliable first-up performer. Competing in stronger races last prep. Expecting a prominent showing fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Proven record first up. Started $11.00 and tailed off to finish 8th last time at Caulfield Heath. Should improve here. Jamie Melham is a suitable booking. Major chance.
RP
Useful at this level; not disgraced when eighth at Caulfield in June; returns from a layoff; every chance as has wins in the formbook and she has won after a layoff previously.
RSIS
Has multiple wins when resuming. Started 10/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last run at Caulfield Heath. Capable of bouncing back. Jamie Melham rates highly. Should go very close.
Career
22: 3-3-2
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 2-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Gilgandra
1: 0-0-0
Track Parkes
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 2-1-0
Going Good
10: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
AAP
Kept fresh since resuming. Steps out for third run new stable/region. Off pace and comfortably beaten at Bendigo first up. Strips in better shape.
ILB
Weakened under pressure when 7th last time at Bendigo. Should improve from the last run and have to respect the form at the trip. Gets a solid chance here.
RP
Form is hit and miss; not beaten too far when seventh at Bendigo over 5½f (handicap) four weeks ago; facing a testing assignment and looks an unlikely winner.
RSIS
Was well beaten when 7th last time at Bendigo. Giving another go here and strong performer at this distance. Should race on the pace. Should give plenty of sight.
Career
10: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 83%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 59% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Settled close, couldn't match winner but ran on for third at Cranbourne. One for exotics.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last time at Cranbourne. Performing impressively since coming back from a spell. Possesses very good finishing speed. Will be fighting out the finish.
RP
Not beaten too far when third over 6½f at Cranbourne (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Did well when 3rd last start at Cranbourne. Showing good ability since resuming from a break. Should be swooping on the field late. Will run close.
Career
5: 2-2-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-2-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
Finished in hot pursuit at Cranbourne. Draw no favours here. Not out of this.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Tidy effort when 3rd last run at Morphettville. Amongst the placegetters at every start this campaign.
RP
Beaten 9l over 5f at Morphettville (handicap) yesterday; has won at this track; produced a string of consistent efforts; brings winning form to the table and a possible player; was due to run at Morphettville Saturday.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Ran well when 3rd last time at Morphettville. Been in the money 4 from 4 attempts lately.
Career
26: 4-2-3
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 2-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
3: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1204m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1217m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
9: 1-1-2
Going Soft
7: 3-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -33%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
All honours in the small field at Bairnsdale over this trip. On pacer. Repeat would surprise.
ILB
Dictated the tempo to win by 2 3/4L last time at Bairnsdale but up against tougher opponents. Stephanie Hateley provides some weight relief.
RP
Scored by just under 3l at Bairnsdale three weeks ago; despite that Bairnsdale success, has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Led from start to finish to win by 2 3/4L last start at Bairnsdale but racing against tougher rivals. The large claim from Stephanie Hateley should help.
Career
10: 3-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1247m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 3-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 36% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Finished well down the track in 3yo+ (Bm70) at Cranbourne last outing. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Was $26.00 and faded away to finish 9th last start at Cranbourne but proven runner at this distance. Might be ridden for luck. Rough chance.
RP
Finished last of nine at Cranbourne a week ago; a winner over C&D; he knows the task at hand and likely to be a threat.
RSIS
At 25/1 folded up in the straight when 9th last time at Cranbourne but suited at this distance in the past. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
5: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Danny O'Brien striking at just 11%
Key Rider
Positive
Damien Thornton 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Damien Thornton in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 22%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Midfield, no rally and went to line tamely at Ballarat second-up. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Was $31.00 and weakened to finish 10th last time at Ballarat but gets a favourable gate. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Tenth of 11 beaten 5l at Ballarat last month; in first-time blinkers; has wins in his back catalogue so likely to be in contention.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and didn't find the line when 10th last time at Ballarat but has a good draw.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Resuming (22-weeks). Ex S B Laming in Victoria. Close in Benchmark 66 company at Cranbourne first-up last campaign. Last campaign was safely held against better opposition.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Ran 5th last start at Pakenham.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Ran 5th last run at Pakenham.
Career
6: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Donkey-licked them at Pakenham Synthetic two back. Failed to threaten at Caulfield at double-figure odds. Easier race off Listed assignment. Rates highly.
ILB
Odds of $26.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 14th last run at Caulfield but competing in a lower grade. Drawn the rails. Respect the betting.
RP
Shown recent signs of improvement; finished last of 14 at Caulfield two weeks ago in a Listed race; might find this company a little easier but not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Started at 25/1 and tailed off to finish 14th last time at Caulfield but will find this grade easier. Drawn the rails.
Career
35: 1-8-6
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 1-2-1
Track Seymour
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1209m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1217m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
22: 0-5-4
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
9: 1-3-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Melea Castle current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -44%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 80% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (22-weeks). Can fill the minors here fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Resumes after a spell. Was $8.50 and made some ground when 4th last run at Pakenham. Likely to get back in the run. Hard to warm to.
RP
Track has proven suitable before; didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Pakenham (beaten 3½l) over 5½f (handicap) five months ago; running in a handicap for only the second time; returns from a layoff; others appeal more as running in what looks to be a hot race.
RSIS
First run back after a break. Was 15/2 and moved through the field into 4th last start at Pakenham. Likely to get back in the field.