Shortest win price
Life's Uncertainty (7)
3.60
Welcome to Mornington for the Mcleod Trees Mdn Plate over the 1200m trip. The track is currently rated a good 4 under overcast skies, with the jump timed for 2:15 pm AEDT. Looking over the early win market order, punters have zeroed in on Life's Uncertainty sitting right at the head of affairs, closely followed by Big Kapow, Weasel Sea, and Lavancher rounding out the leading fancies in the yarn. It shapes up as an intriguing maiden where experience clashes with some interesting newcomers ready to make their mark on the track.
Diving into the form behind those shorter prices, Weasel Sea presents a compelling case for punters after stringing together consistent efforts, including a solid third at Bairnsdale over 1200m where it settled close and ran on well. Prepared by Jason Warren who is currently outperforming market expectations, Weasel Sea profiles very nicely here under Jamie Mott from barrier 11. Meanwhile, Big Kapow comes in for Rory Hunter with Jake Noonan in the saddle from barrier 8, having put in a fair shift when fourth on a heavy deck at Sale over this distance. Big Kapow is backing up quickly and sectionals suggest it goes hard early, which ties in nicely with its leader speed map.
Adding a few more threads from the data pack, the debutant Life's Uncertainty commands plenty of attention as a sizeable purchase out of a stakes-placed mare who won six races, stepping out for Jerome Hunter with Craig Newitt steering from barrier 6 on the back of solid jumpout form. Down the order, Lavancher represents Julius Sandhu with Beau Mertens taking the mount from barrier 3, holding some claims after a Seymour debut where it was well held but far from disgraced on a soft track. With speed groups showing Big Kapow, Weasel Sea, and Lavancher clashing early up on the pace, this 1200m contest promises plenty of early pressure and makes for a fascinating betting race.
Shortest win price
Life's Uncertainty (7)
3.60
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Firststart
Leader
Big Kapow · Positive
Ideal Map
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Buffalo Milk · Negative
Trainer SR
Wendy Kelly striking at just 7%
Duke Of Oman · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 40% better than Career Avg.
San Pueblo · Negative
Jockey Booking
Melea Castle current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Career
6: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-2-0
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
Backing up quickly. Not disgraced on a soft deck at Sale over this distance. Has a big say here.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Started at $4.80 and ran past a few when 4th last run at Sale on a heavy surface. Should be rolling forward early from the wide barrier. Strong chance to be considered.
RP
Finished fourth seven days ago albeit only beaten just under 2l (Sale); not yet off the mark in six attempts although has finished second; not been able to get his head in front lately so easy to oppose.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Started 4/1 and closed off nicely when 4th last run at Sale on a heavy surface. Has the necessary pace to mitistall the wide draw. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer SR
Negative
Wendy Kelly striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Bon Aurum 4yo lining up for his first official race start. Placed in most recent jumpout. Look to market for a further guide.
ILB
First start at the races 4yo by Bon Aurum for Wendy Kelly. Follow the money.
RP
Gelded already; first rules outing for this four-year-old son of Bon Aurum; has to be respected with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Initial race appearance 4yo by Bon Aurum for trainer Wendy Kelly.
Career
6: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 40% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Cartwright 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Settled back and passed a few late in the 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Kyneton. Keener on others.
ILB
Was $31.00 and edged past some when finishing 5th last time at Kyneton. Significant improvement required.
RP
Six-race maiden but has managed to finish second; not beaten too far when fifth at Kyneton last month; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Was 30/1 and inched into 5th last run at Kyneton.
Career
10: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
3: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Melea Castle current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 124%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 80% in L100 rides
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Finished well held at Cranbourne off long break. Will be fitter second-up. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
At $26.00 didn't find the line when 7th last time at Cranbourne but has a positive alley. Rough chance.
RP
Still winless and defeats stacking up (ten on the bounce); found life tough when 6l back in seventh over 5f at Cranbourne (maiden) last month; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Was 25/1 and didn't find the line when 7th last start at Cranbourne but has a positive stall.
Career
7: 0-3-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
3: 0-2-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
3: 0-1-2
Going Good
3: 0-2-1
Going Soft
4: 0-1-3
Hot Trainer
Positive
Jason Warren in good form, out performing market 121%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 95% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
Keeps racing well. Settled close, couldn't match winner but ran on for third at Bairnsdale over today's trip. Profiles well.
ILB
Managed to place 3rd last run at Bairnsdale. Has the speed to overcome the wide alley. Been in the money 3 from 3 attempts this preparation. Looks set to run a big race.
RP
String of creditable efforts to his name of late and has shown some recent improvement; went down by just under 3l when third (Bairnsdale) last month; passed over as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.
RSIS
Finished well when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L last start at Bairnsdale. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide stall. Smart type.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Well held but far from disgraced on debut at Seymour at longer odds 11 Oct. Experience a positive. Can play a role.
ILB
Jumped at $21.00 and finished 7th last run at Seymour but was a debutant last start. Marginal chance.
RP
Couldn't land a blow on his debut at Seymour at 20-1 three weeks ago; must make above-average progress to figure.
RSIS
At 20/1 ran 7th last time at Seymour but having second career run.
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 67%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
$110k purchase. Out of a stakes-placed mare who won six races. By Doubtland and making debut off solid jumpout form. Big watch.
ILB
Debutant 3yo by Doubtland for Jerome Hunter. Watch early betting.
RP
First start under rules for this son of Doubtland; strong contender as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
First start at the races 3yo by Doubtland for trainer Jerome Hunter.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Acquitted self well with debut placing at Echuca 19 Oct. Took valuable lessons. Key player with even breaks.
ILB
Produced an eye catching run when 3rd last start at Echuca and was on debut last time.
RP
Not beaten far on his debut at Echuca at 6-1 last month; in the mix if reproducing initial effort.
RSIS
Caught the eye when 3rd last time at Echuca and having second race start.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Eurell striking at just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 38% Profit on Turnover
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
Well back and made limited headway at Cranbourne at second appearance. All the better, sound claims.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Jumped at $19.00 and not up to standard when 7th last time at Pakenham.
RSIS
On a short back up. Started 18/1 and below par when 7th last time at Pakenham.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Returns for second campaign (18-weeks). Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Bendigo when drifting in the betting 25 Jun. Experience a positive.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Started $6.50 and came in 6th last start at Kilmore.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. At 11/2 finished 6th last time at Kilmore.
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Firststart
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 38% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 53%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
$50k purchase. Out of a stakes-placed mare who won three races. Unraced 3yo by Tivaci and out of the Savabeel mare Magazine. Placed in recent jumpout. One to watch at this stage.
ILB
Tivaci 3yo having first race start for David And Coral Feek. Watch betting.
RP
New Zealander bred; first time on the track; related to Grade 3 winner Feminino; gelded already; ought to be of interest.
RSIS
3yo by Tivaci having initial appearance for David And Coral Feek.
Career
23: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
7: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
5: 0-0-1
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
9: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
7: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -20%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Failed to threaten (wide barrier) at Cranbourne first up as a despised outsider. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and lost ground in the run home when 9th last time at Cranbourne but can save some energy from the draw. Cannot have today.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 over 5f at Cranbourne (maiden) last month; yet to open her account after 23 starts; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
Odds of 150/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last run at Cranbourne but drawn the rails. Trying to win after 23 runs.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 34% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (22-weeks). Could improve out to 1200m. Not out of it fresh in this company.
ILB
Fresh after a break. Odds of $4.60 and struggled when 6th last time at Bendigo. Might be ridden for luck. Watch the betting.
RP
Not had much racing - third outing here; fair effort when beaten just over 3l, finishing sixth of nine over 5½f at Bendigo (maiden) in May; back from an absence here; she can be taken on.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Odds of 7/2 and had difficulty when 6th last run at Bendigo. Likely to settle back in the field. Could feature here.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1411m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Bairnsdale for new trainer. Modest career figures and very hard to recommend.
ILB
Started at $151.00 and didn't threaten when 9th last time at Bairnsdale. The large claim from Lauren Burke helps. Hard to see this being competitive today.
RP
Far from exposed but attempting to open her account at the seventh time of asking; last of nine (Bairnsdale) last month (behind Weasel Sea, dropped back to this trip) on debut for this trainer; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and was well beaten when 9th last time at Bairnsdale. Lauren Burke takes a large claim.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sha Tin
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 46% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Third start in Australia. Form to date uninspiring. Sent back to last and safely held in the small field this venue. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Inched into 5th last time around here.
RP
Beaten 5l here over 5f (maiden) last week; winless in three starts overseas.
RSIS
Moved through the field into 5th last time here.