Shortest win price
Royal Tea (11)
2.05
Welcome to Mornington for the Quayclean Mdn Plate over 1000m on a good four surface with overcast skies above us. Punters eyeing off the early win market have gravitated towards Royal Tea holding the mantle up top, closely followed by Sealand, Rockbourg, and Yes It's Time shaping up right behind them. It is a fascinating three-year-old and upwards fillies and mares maiden where the yarn of the race centers around a mix of debutants and those seeking a change of luck.
Taking a look under the hood at the form for those shorter in the market, Sealand for Lloyd Kennewell brings a five-start campaign including a solid minor placing at Sale two back before compounding at Ballarat over a longer trip, and dropping back to 1000m here could suit. Meanwhile, Rockbourg resumes after a lengthy spell following a debut third at Albury where she ran on for the minors, giving Rachael Cunningham's charge some valuable raceday experience though she maps as a backmarker.
For those hunting further down the win market or looking at the debutants, Royal Tea catches the eye stepping out for Alexander Rae with Lachlan Neindorf aboard, having taken out a recent jumpout to suggest an immediate impact is on the cards. With several first-starters like Yes It's Time stepping out on their home track with jumpout experience under their belt, the race sets up as a tricky puzzle where keeping an eye on the market clues is vital for us punters.
Shortest win price
Royal Tea (11)
2.05
Back left · leaders right
Firststart
Backmarker
Offpace
Leader
Philly Idol · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Rockbourg · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Sealand · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Shalwedash · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). Struggled in first two campaigns. Needs to show more.
ILB
Racing fresh today after a break. Started $71.00 and looked outclassed when 13th last time at Sale. Priced to finish behind most.
RP
Yet to get off the mark in three attempts (sixth her best finish); finished towards the rear of 14 (Sale) in June; returns from a layoff here; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
First run back after a break. Odds of 70/1 and didn't attack the line when 13th last time at Sale on a heavy surface.
Career
8: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 975m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
6: 0-2-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Handy but gave away tamely at Bendigo first run back. Strips fitter and takes a 2kg claim. Not out of it.
ILB
Odds of $16.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last time at Bendigo. Nadia Daniels and Will Ben & Jd Hayes are usually competitive together. Has some claims.
RP
Beaten 9l when seventh of nine at Bendigo last month; form has an uneven look to it and yet to open her account after eight starts; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and was well beaten when 7th last run at Bendigo. Jockey Nadia Daniels and trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes must be respected as a team. Could feature here.
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Rebel Dane racemare who has obviously needed time. Won most recent jumpout. Market watch advised.
ILB
First appearance at the races 4yo by Rebel Dane for Jessica Pateman. Watch early betting.
RP
Sire's progeny have shown a preference for softer goings; first time on the track; strong contender with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
4yo first starter sired by Rebel Dane for trainer Jessica Pateman.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Albury
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
Rachael Cunningham striking at just 4%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 48%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Resuming after a (92-weeks) spell. Ex Ms D Scott in NSW. No match but ran on for the minors at Albury on debut when supported 20 Jan 2025. Experience a positive.
ILB
First up from a spell of 92 weeks. Made some ground late when 3rd last run at Albury and was a debutant last start. Coming to a new trainer. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
RP
Not beaten far on her debut (6f, Albury) at 12-5 last January; first start for new yard; long absence to overcome; could improve but still hard to see her winning here.
RSIS
First run back from a 92 week break. Ran on strongly when 3rd last time at Albury and having second race start. Change in trainer. Will go close.
Career
5: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Every chance but compounded at Ballarat. Reverts to shorter trip and effort two back keeps her in the picture.
ILB
Let up. Started $10.00 and didn't find the line when 9th last time at Ballarat. Has the potential to improve sharply. Can go through the gears. Well respected contender.
RP
Signs of improvement on last two runs; finished ninth, beaten 9l, over 6f at Ballarat (maiden) 44 days ago; others are preferred.
RSIS
Freshened for this. At 9/1 faded away to finish 9th last time at Ballarat. Looking for an improved run. Has a great burst of pace late. Gets a solid chance here.
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 34% POT in L100 Runners
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
Out of a stakes-placed mare. Late bloomer heading to the races off a couple of solid jumpout placings. Good draw. Odds may prove best guide here.
ILB
Career debut 4yo by Shalaa for Simon Zahra. Market as guide.
RP
Sire can inject some quality; first competitive racecourse experience; shouldn't be far away.
RSIS
Shalaa 4yo having first start for Simon Zahra.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1243m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 40% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Eurell striking at just 7%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Cartwright 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -72% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (24-weeks). Was a long way off being competitive in her first campaign and they've taken time bringing her back. Need to see more from her now.
ILB
Fresh today. Started at $61.00 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Kilmore but has a positive draw. Back in trip. Won't find this easy.
RP
Yet to get off the mark in three attempts (fifth her best finish); first-time blinkers didn't work over 6f at Kilmore (maiden) when beaten 8l (seventh of nine) six months ago; has had some time off; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Racing fresh today after a break. Started 60/1 and faded to finish 7th last time at Kilmore but has a good draw. Will be dropping in distance.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Had no answers when the pressure went on at Ballarat debut 9 Oct. Looking elsewhere at this stage.
ILB
Jumped at $13.00 and tailed off to finish 9th last start at Ballarat but was on debut last time.
RSIS
Odds of 12/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last time at Ballarat but having second career run.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Unable to make an impression this course second-up. Sharper now, sound claims.
ILB
Jumped at $51.00 and inched into 4th last run at the track. The large claim from Chelsea Thompson helps. Needs to find a lot more.
RP
Not disgraced when fourth of seven last week; is passed over.
RSIS
Started 50/1 and advanced late into 4th last start at this track. Chelsea Thompson provides some weight relief.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 38% better than Career Avg.
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field at Cranbourne over this distance. At best, a place hope.
ILB
Started at $101.00 and finished 4th last time at Cranbourne. Can't have on what it has been showing.
RP
Found life tough when 6l back in fourth (Cranbourne) 16 days ago; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
At 100/1 finished 4th last run at Cranbourne.
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Firststart
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 92%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
Newcomer by Royal Meeting and out of the O'Lonhro mare O' So Hazy. Won most recent jumpout. Can make an immediate impact here.
ILB
3yo first starter sired by Royal Meeting for trainer Alex Rae. Lachlan Neindorf is highly regarded. Watch the betting.
RP
First start under rules for this three-year-old daughter of Royal Meeting; has to be respected.
RSIS
Career debut 3yo by Royal Meeting for trainer Alex Rae. Jockey Lachlan Neindorf is a strong choice aboard. Respect the betting.
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -59% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 33%
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
Yes Yes Yes filly heading to the races with plenty of jumpout experience. Home track advantage. Market may prove strongest guide.
ILB
First start at the races 3yo by Yes Yes Yes for Amy Yargi & Ash Yargi. Betting is the best guide.
RP
This daughter of Yes Yes Yes makes first rules appearance; must be considered.
RSIS
Amy Yargi & Ash Yargi trained 3yo by Yes Yes Yes having first start. Market as guide.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened after returning. Still learning the craft. Yet to hit her straps. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and weakened to finish 8th last time at Bendigo. Large claim helps. Too much luck needed to come into contention.
RP
Was eighth of nine, beaten 17l, (Bendigo) last month.
RSIS
Odds of 100/1 and struggled with the pace when 8th last start at Bendigo. Large claim helps.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 52% lower than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 124%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 80% in L100 rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Returns for second campaign (23-weeks). Not a lot to crow about from first campaign and has obviously needed more time. Record leaves little confidence and looks well held.
ILB
Resumes after a break. Jumped at $201.00 and faded away to finish 8th last time at Pakenham and coming back in trip. Has early speed and positions nicely. Looking elsewhere.
RP
Held when eighth of ten over 7f at Pakenham (maiden) in May; layoff to overcome.
RSIS
Resumes after a break. Started 200/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last time at Pakenham and dropping back to a shorter trip. Likely to be well placed early.
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Dam won five races. Fierce Impact racemare who has obviously needed time. Looked smart winning only jumpout. Alley makes it tough but betting holds the key.
ILB
Fierce Impact 4yo having first race appearance for Bernadette Gafa. Watch the market.
RP
Held 11th of 12 but was making her first appearance at Traralgon at 25-1 yesterday; scope to improve; should be better for that run; was due to run at Traralgon Saturday.
RSIS
Bernadette Gafa trained 4yo by Fierce Impact on debut.