Shortest win price
Hey Jude (4)
2.15
Nowra's sixth race at 4:35 pm AEDT is the Brundee Blooms Greenwell Point Cup, a 1100-metre Benchmark 66 affair run on Good3 going under overcast skies. The market is short around Hey Jude, with Abstruse and Girls Weekend sitting next, followed by Nights Inferno. This is a genuine contest with plenty of form to unpack across a field that shapes as competitive for the grade.
Hey Jude carries the shortest odds despite the weight of his Newcastle run four weeks back—a messy 10-length defeat when second-up at the mile. Bjorn Baker's gelding is a different animal back in country Benchmark 66 company and has the soft draw (barrier one) to use early speed. Amber Riddell is the key here; she's been firing at 25 per cent above market expected and outperforming her career average by 24 per cent in her last hundred rides, which is serious form. Abstruse, despite the hefty weight (62 kilograms) from barrier seven, has been in sparkling form—a slip at Bathurst and just a four-centimetre margin at Cootamundra last start in this exact grade. Natalie Jarvis's stable is rolling at 14 per cent return on turnover and the Loy-Jarvis combo are tracking 42 per cent above market expectations. Girls Weekend resumes after twenty-one weeks and ran well in her last start at Canberra, where she saluted over 1280 metres. Jean Van Overmeire is also in form, sitting 21 per cent above market expected, and the barrier-four draw is kind. Lack of recent racing is a question mark at such short odds.
Nights Inferno has early speed and rates as an angle worth considering on the quick back-up. The gelding let down strongly in Benchmark 66 company at Cootamundra second-up and is stripping fitter now, fresh. Two leaders—Girls Weekend and Jazz All Knight—will likely go forward, with a midfield group of Abstruse, Hey Jude, and Nights Inferno able to navigate in behind. Jazz All Knight won last start and has the early-speed edge at Nowra, a track that tends to reward pace. The form line suggests this isn't a runaway race, and any of the shorter-priced runners could fire on the day.
Shortest win price
Hey Jude (4)
2.15
Most career wins
Abstruse and Jazz All Knight
5 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Leader
Abstruse · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Girls Weekend · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Jazz All Knight · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Hey Jude · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Career
42: 5-9-6
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
7: 1-2-0
Second-up
6: 0-2-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
6: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-1-0
Track Wagga
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
12: 2-1-1
Distance 1007m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1010m
3: 0-2-0
Going Good
20: 3-5-2
Going Heavy
6: 0-2-2
Going Soft
16: 2-2-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Holding form. Just missed at Cootamundra 4 Oct. Super run coming from back half in Benchmark 66 company at Bathurst at $5.50. Take stopping despite hefty weight.
ILB
Narrowly beaten last run at Bathurst. Brodie Loy and Natalie Jarvis make a formidable team. Should be swooping on the field late. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
RP
Has been fairly consistent lately; has won here before; ran well when beaten a nose at Bathurst two weeks ago.
RSIS
Close up last run at Bathurst. Jockey Brodie Loy and trainer Natalie Jarvis are a proven combination. Well respected contender.
Career
17: 3-2-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
2: 1-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
6: 1-0-1
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
11: 3-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 47%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (21-weeks). Raced well last time in. Good draw. Has some claims fresh in this affair.
ILB
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Was $16.00 and lost ground in the run home when 9th last start at Wyong. Has plenty of early speed. Watch betting.
RP
Beaten 7l when ninth of ten at Wyong over 6f (handicap) five months ago; can be a player at this level; back from an absence here; clear chance given she won a handicap two runs back.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Started 15/1 and weakened under pressure when 9th last start at Wyong. Should race on the pace. Could feature here.
Career
33: 5-8-4
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-1
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-1
Track Wagga
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1180m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
19: 3-6-3
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
15: 2-4-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
Racing with some conviction. Responded strongly to score in small field at Bombala. Claiming apprentice engaged again. Well placed to run another big race.
ILB
Won by 2L last run at Bombala but challenged by a tougher grade. Should muster plenty of early toe. Tracking very well this preparation and getting better in recent performances. Very tidy performer.
RP
Scored by just under 2l at Bombala over 6f (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Finished on top by 2L last run at Bombala but racing in stronger company. Should be going forward early. Producing consistent results lately. Serious contender.
Career
11: 2-1-3
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Cowra
1: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
5: 1-1-2
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1375m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Amber Riddell 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Amber Riddell in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 25%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 29 days
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Every chance but compounded at Newcastle when second-up. Good gate speed, soft draw. Can challenge back in a country Benchmark 66.
ILB
At $8.00 didn't attack the line when 9th last time at Newcastle but has drawn to do little work. Amber Riddell and Bjorn Baker form a proven partnership. Strong prospects in this race.
RP
Was held in ninth over 6½f at Newcastle (handicap) four weeks ago; has won at this course; has proven competitive in a race of this nature; in with a shout as is no stranger to the winners' enclosure and Amber Riddell booked.
RSIS
Started at 7/1 and folded up in the straight when 9th last start at Newcastle but drawn beautifully. Amber Riddell and Bjorn Baker have shared plenty of success together. Has definite claims.
Career
18: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
6: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 2-1-0
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 39% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fresh. Void of early speed but he let down strongly Benchmark 66 company at Cootamundra second-up. Stripping fitter, can make his presence felt.
ILB
Hit the line well when 3rd last run at Cootamundra. Should be in the finish.
RP
Not far behind Abstruse when third at Cootamundra four weeks ago; recent form has a decent look to it; likely to be a threat.
RSIS
Rattled home nicely into 3rd last run at Cootamundra. Solid prospects.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
AAP
Got up in final strides at Bathurst off long spell. Each way.
ILB
Rounded them up to win last run at Bathurst but facing formidable competition.
RSIS
Picked up nicely to win last time at Bathurst but up against a higher level of opposition.
Career
24: 3-7-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
6: 1-1-0
Track Sapphire Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1180m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 1-2-0
Going Good
11: 1-2-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
10: 2-4-0
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Didn't finish it off over 1175m Hcp (C3) at Albury. Has some claims.
ILB
Started $6.50 and weakened under pressure when 7th last start at Albury.
RP
Held when seventh of ten at Albury over 6f (handicap) last month; a course winner; meeting some horses in good form and unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Started at 11/2 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Albury.
Career
32: 3-1-7
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 1-0-2
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
12: 0-1-4
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1020m
6: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
5: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
10: 1-0-3
Going Heavy
8: 2-0-3
Going Soft
6: 0-1-1
Going Good
18: 1-0-3
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 73%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Brian Adams in good form, out performing market 79%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Let-up (42-days). Reserved at back and gave late chase into third this course over this distance. One for multiples.
ILB
Let up. Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd beaten by 3L last start at this venue and has a good draw. Likely to settle back in the field. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Finishing third was a good effort 42 days ago when just behind You Wish.
RSIS
Back from a freshen up. Ran on strongly when 3rd last start here and gets a favourable draw. Likely to get back. Matched against tougher rivals.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
AAP
Returns for second campaign (14-weeks). Consistent recent preparation. Given two soft trials. Shapes as a rough place prospect fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Back from a break. Started $6.00 and ran 6th last start at Canberra.
RSIS
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Was 5/1 and ran 6th last start at Canberra.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Led, gave up the ghost quickly in E&G (Bm58) at Port Macquarie. Pace influence. Look for a better showing.
ILB
Started at $9.50 and didn't threaten when 10th last time at Port Macquarie.
RSIS
Started at 17/2 and was well beaten when 10th last time at Port Macquarie.
Career
9: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Quayde Krogh current POT is 21% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 63%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ridden back, battled home without threatening at Kembla Grange. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Was $151.00 and looked flat when 8th last run at Kembla Grange. Hard to see it being good enough.
RP
A C&D winner; struggled a bit since winning a handicap at Nowra in August; not beaten that far in eighth (just under 4l) over 5f at Kembla Grange (handicap) 22 days ago; not hard to turn elsewhere as a few rivals look in good form.
RSIS
Started at 150/1 and looked flat when 8th last run at Kembla Grange.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Struggling
Negative
Doesn’t look to be going well
AAP
Only battled home after leading in the small field this track. Has early speed. Has work cut out.
ILB
Finished 4th last time at this track. Struggling this preparation with no placings from 7 starts.
RSIS
Finished 4th last time at this track. Yet to fire lately.