Newcastle (NSW) horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 2:00 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Newcastle (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST

Meetings · Sat, 3 OctNewcastle (NSW)Change

Race 1 — Cheer On The Newcastle Knights Mdn Hcp 1500m · jumps Sat 3 Oct, 1:34 pm AEST

Race preview

Newcastle's opening maiden handicap over 1500 metres jumped at 1:34 pm AEST on a Good 4 track under overcast skies, and the market has Last Affair shortest, with Caviar and Satono's Shout next in the reckoning, followed by Reelflare. This is a wide-open affair for three-year-olds and older maidens, and the win order tells the story of a field genuinely spread across the form guide.

Last Affair holds the shortest odds and has genuine credentials for the punter. Trained by Michael Freedman, the runner was not far away on debut at Illawarra Grange over 1300 metres on 17 September, finishing fifth, and the form comment suggests the step to 1500 metres should suit. Jockey Rory Hutchings is running 25 per cent better than his career average in the last hundred rides, and there's an edge when a horse comes back having tasted the track once already. Caviar, in barrier two with L P Beuzelin, is a Newcastle local with a placing at this track on a Good 4 surface over 1400 metres, showing it has the ability to strike at the course. The sticky note is that the Waterhouse and Bott stable has been underperforming market expectations, and Caviar will need to produce something sharper than recent efforts to find the line. Satono's Shout, from the Waller yard with Lee Magorrian in the saddle, carries a rating of 100 and the form comment backs a genuine finishing effort—it made late headway at Illawarra Grange and the longer journey should suit, though the stable has struggled lately for profit on turnover.

Reelflare, bred expensively at $525,000 and carrying bloodlines through a Group-winning dam from New Zealand, has trialled only, returning seventh twice at Randwick, yet lines up for John O'Shea and Tom Charlton, who are running 21 per cent above market expectations. The trial form is uninspiring, but the stable's record and market appetite could signal something the eye hasn't caught yet. Rye Manhattan, also from the O'Shea and Charlton stable, holds the inside draw in barrier one and maps to settle on pace; that combination of low draw and stable form deserves a squiz if the prices drift.

Race notes

3UP MDN HCP,3yo+,MDN,Maiden
GOOD4
Overcast
8 runners

Shortest win price

Last Affair (5)

3.30

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

9Tightrope Walker

Midfield

4Too Expensive

Firststart

2Phlox
5Last Affair
7Reelflare

Offpace

3Satono's Shout

Onpace

8Rye Manhattan

Leader

1Caviar

Caviar · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Phlox · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Satono's Shout · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 13% lower than Career Avg.
Too Expensive · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 59% better than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1CaviarJ: L P Beuzelin·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott259kg6 1 3 2 74: 0-1-1$3.60$1.32

Career

4: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-1
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-1

Last starts

7Randwick Kensington1550m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD49L
2Newcastle1400m22 Aug 2026 · Maiden · GOOD40.7L
3Gosford1200m6 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.5L
1Randwick1050m20 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-0.1
6Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)8.9L
9Rosehill900m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5L
5Canterbury1250m18 June 2025 · 2Y C&G MDN HCP · SOFT75L
2Rosehill900m29 May 2025 · Barrier Trial1.4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Newcastle Mdn placegetter 22 Aug. Couldn't sustain bid at Randwick-Kensington. Can lead or take a sit. Can play a more positive role here.

ILB

At $3.60 didn't find the line when 7th last time at Randwick Kensington but will try to take advantage of the barrier. Expecting to settle positively. Going well this preparation. Watch for a sign in the market.

Four-race maiden but has managed to finish second; last of seven at Randwick three weeks ago; is passed over.

RSIS

Odds of 13/5 and weakened under pressure when 7th last start at Randwick Kensington but drawn nicely. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Going well of late. Betting is the best guide.

2PhloxJ: Jeff Penza·T: C J Waller656.5kg4 7 7 3 41: 0-0-0$12.00$2.70

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Illawarra Grange1300m17 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD41.6L
3Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.6L
7Randwick742m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)8.7L
7Rosehill900m13 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial8.4L
4Rosehill900m20 June 2025 · Barrier Trial2.4L
3Rosehill900m6 June 2025 · Barrier Trial1.9L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jeff Penza 33% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 41%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 29% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Waller mare who left a decent impression on debut at Illawarra Grange under betting interest 17 Sep. Better for the run. Has scope to improve and looks a live chance here.

ILB

Started at $7.50 and finished 4th last run at Illawarra Grange but was on debut last time. Low-key chance.

Not beaten too far (1½l) on her debut at Illawarra Grange over 6½f (had Last Affair and Satono's Shout behind) at 13-2 last month; unexposed in handicaps with this her second start in this company; entitled to have come on for that run.

RSIS

Odds of 13/2 and finished 4th last start at Illawarra Grange but fitter for debut run.

3Satono's ShoutJ: Lee Magorrian·T: C J Waller556.5kg3 6 8 2 64: 0-0-1$3.80$1.34

Career

4: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Illawarra Grange1300m17 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.6L
2Warwick Farm1200m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.9L
8Rosehill900m21 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.1L
6Flemington1420m20 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT72.01L
3Sandown1400m3 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY81.15L
4Warrnambool1200m6 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY103.5L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 13% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 29% Profit on Turnover
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Gave good sight at Flemington 20 Jun. Made late rally from the back at Illawarra Grange first up. Strips fitter second run back and suited over the longer trip. Can challenge.

ILB

Started at $3.90 and ran 6th last time at Illawarra Grange. Looking past the last run. Good winning chance.

Finished sixth but only beaten 2½l over 6½f at Illawarra Grange (handicap) 16 days ago; not yet off the mark in four attempts although has finished third.

RSIS

Was 3/1 and ran 6th last start at Illawarra Grange. Can make a comeback. Terrific hope.

4Too ExpensiveJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: K A Lees856.5kg5 7 3 61: 0-0-0$34.00$4.00

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Wyong1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.5L
3Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)1.5L
7Newcastle800m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.7L
5Gosford800m13 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.8L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 59% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire 70% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 70%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run

Comments

AAP

Now 4 weeks between runs. Offered little to catch the eye on debut at Wyong after a market ease 4 Sep. Locally trained but has a tricky draw. Better for that but need to see again.

ILB

Odds of $7.50 and unimpressive effort when 6th last start at Wyong but fitter for debut run. Interesting to see the tongue tie go on for the first time. Watch the betting.

Could not finish better than sixth on his debut (wore blinkers, 6f, Wyong) at 13-2 last month; running in a handicap for just the second time; entitled to be a bit more streetwise this time and prospects.

RSIS

Odds of 13/2 and performed below standard when 6th last time at Wyong but was on debut last time. Watch the betting.

5Last AffairJ: Rory Hutchings·T: Michael Freedman356kg3 5 5 51: 0-0-0$3.30$1.28

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Illawarra Grange1300m17 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.4L
5Randwick1045m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)2.5L
5Randwick740m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L
3Randwick740m4 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Illawarra Grange 17 Sep. Looks suited going to 1500m. Will only be improved and should have more to offer. Include.

ILB

Started $6.50 and came in 5th last start at Illawarra Grange but was a debutant last start. Jockey Rory Hutchings and trainer Michael Freedman make an imposing pair. A threat to the other main hopes.

Fifth but beaten only 2½l on his debut at Illawarra Grange at 11-2 16 days ago; running in a handicap for only the second time; could improve from first run although a leap forward required to win this.

RSIS

Started 11/2 and ran 5th last time at Illawarra Grange but fitter for debut run. Interesting gear change of tongue strap on first time. Has some claims.

6Palm TreeScratched7––––

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-1-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.8L
6Canterbury1250m26 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT76.6L
3Warwick Farm1208m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.4L
8Warwick Farm786m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.2L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Mitchell Bell current POT is 11% below Career Avg.
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 26% Profit on Turnover
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Put in some big strides late at Illawarra Grange at her second race start. Heading the right way and competitive here.

ILB

Did well when 2nd last run at Illawarra Grange.

Went close when second (Illawarra Grange) last month.

RSIS

Honest race when 2nd last run at Illawarra Grange.

7ReelflareJ: Keagan Latham·T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton455kg7 7$6.00$1.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

7Randwick1050m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)3.6L
7Randwick1050m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.1L

Insights

Hot Trainer
Positive
J & T O'Shea & Charlton in good form, out performing market 21%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (3:0-0-0). Cost $525k. Dam a stakes-winner in NZ. 3/4 brother to city winner Very Sewreel. Needs to spark up on race day after some pedestrian trial efforts but has a good draw and look to market for a further guide.

ILB

3yo by The Autumn Sun having first start for trainer Tom Charlton & John Oshea. Yet to place in multiple trials. Keep your eye on the market.

Sire gets his share of decent sorts; sole newcomer in the field; trainer can ready a newcomer; holds major claims as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

Tom Charlton & John Oshea 3yo by The Autumn Sun having first race start. Ran 7th in a trial at Royal Randwick on Sept 11th.

8Rye ManhattanJ: Adam Farragher·T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton155kg5 3 3 6 71: 0-0-0$14.00$3.10

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.5L
6Randwick Kensington1400m13 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD46.5L
3Randwick1050m4 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.1L
3Rosehill900m23 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial4L
5Randwick Kensington850m9 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial12.5L

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 21%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (20-weeks). Disappointing debut performance at Randwick-Kensington 13 May. Returns with 2 trials and could show more this time in. Check betting.

ILB

Back after a break. Odds of $6.50 and was well beaten when 6th last time at Randwick Kensington but having second career run. Has not placed in multiple barrier trials. Rough hope.

Held on her debut over 7f at Randwick at 11-2 in May; returns from a layoff; unexposed in handicaps with this her second start in this company; that experience should set her in good stead so likely to be thereabouts.

RSIS

Fresh after a break. Started 11/2 and weakened to finish 6th last start at Randwick Kensington but having second career run. Has not placed in all trials.

9Tightrope WalkerJ: Andrew Gibbons·T: Denim Wynen955kg12 3 4 7 93: 0-0-0$91.00$8.00

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Newcastle1400m18 Sept 2026 · CG&E MDN · GOOD313.54L
7Wyong1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.5L
4Hawkesbury1000m24 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.3L
3Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)2.8L
12Newcastle1200m6 June 2026 · 2Y MDN HCP · SOFT551.2L
2Gosford1000m18 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.6L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Long odds and yet to make an impact in early runs. Has plenty to find.

ILB

Started $151.00 and disappointing effort when 9th last start at this track. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Likely to get back. Questions at this level.

Attempting to open his account at the fourth time of asking; last of nine here over 7f (handicap) last month; shown nothing recently so not one to rely on.

RSIS

Started at 150/1 and below par when 9th last run at this track. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

Odds correct as at Sat 3 Oct, 1:40 pm AEST. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Mon 26 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Tue 6 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Fri 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races