Newcastle (NSW) horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 2:00 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Newcastle (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST

Meetings · Sat, 3 OctNewcastle (NSW)Change

Race 4 — Good Luck Equimillion Njc Sponsored Riders Mdn Hcp 900m · jumps Sat 3 Oct, 3:19 pm AEST

Race notes

3UP MDN HCP,3yo+,MDN,Maiden
GOOD4
Overcast
6 runners

Shortest win price

Intense Dream (6)

1.80

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

6Intense Dream

Backmarker

1Busy Bee

Midfield

9Wild Courage
2Thorsten

Onpace

7Lady Talea

Leader

4Capdiva

Busy Bee · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Thorsten · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Capdiva · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Intense Dream · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Busy BeeJ: Lee Magorrian·T: M S Minervini258kg5 2 2 52: 0-2-0$23.00$4.80

Career

2: 0-2-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Taree
1: 0-1-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-2-0

Last starts

5Newcastle800m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.5L
2Port Macquarie1200m26 Apr 2026 · Maiden · SOFT70.3L
2Taree1000m9 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT62L
5Newcastle1000m24 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (22-weeks). Placed at Taree on debut last campaign while tuned with 2 trials. Warrants attention fresh in this company.

ILB

First up from a spell. Close to a win last time at Port Macquarie and has a positive draw. Has not placed in all barrier trials. Worth strong consideration.

Beaten a neck at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) five months ago; returns from a layoff.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Just short of the win last start at Port Macquarie and will try to take advantage of the draw. Unplaced in multiple trials. Worth strong consideration.

2ThorstenJ: Jess Taylor·T: Matthew Smith457.5kg5 5 5 4 33: 0-0-1$10.00$3.30

Career

3: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-1
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Kembla Grange1000m12 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD44.8L
4Warwick Farm815m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.7L
5Kembla Grange1000m24 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD46.3L
5Gosford1000m11 Feb 2026 · 2&3Y MDN-SW · GOOD42.4L
5Warwick Farm796m9 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial6.9L
4Warwick Farm786m4 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial2.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 83% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -73% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 23%
Key Jockey
Positive
Jess Taylor winning at 71% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos

Comments

AAP

Lobbed handy, boxed on behind runaway winner in the Mdn Plate at Kembla Grange after lengthy absence. Fitter second-up. Coming back slightly in distance. Worth a look.

ILB

Honest race when 3rd last run at Kembla Grange. Likely to settle back in the field. This will pose a challenge.

Seems to be going the right way; finished third when beaten just under 5l in a maiden at Kembla Grange last month; rates a likely contender.

RSIS

Looked good when 3rd last run at Kembla Grange. Likely to settle back in the field.

3TickelovaScratched8––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Key Rider
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire 58% above market expected in L100 Rides

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (20-weeks). Well down the track at Scone on debut after a betting drift. Aided by 2 lead-in trials but plenty of improvement needed and would need a strong market push.

ILB

First run back from a break. Couldn't maintain the pace when 14th last start at Scone but having second race start. Will be down in distance.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Looked outclassed when 14th last run at Scone but was a debutant last start. Down in distance.

4CapdivaJ: Mikayla Weir·T: G Portelli156.5kg5 3 5 5 56: 0-0-2$7.50$2.70

Career

6: 0-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 0-0-1
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-2

Last starts

5Gosford1100m6 Aug 2026 · Maiden · GOOD44.1L
5Wyong1000m23 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT72.2L
5Canterbury1200m1 Jan 2026 · 3Y FILLIES MDN-SW · GOOD42.3L
3Canterbury1100m12 Dec 2025 · 3YF MDN · GOOD41.4L
5Warwick Farm1000m3 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.5L
3Wyong1000m16 Nov 2025 · MDN · GOOD42.5L
1Warwick Farm815m31 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial-0.7
3Warwick Farm793m8 July 2025 · Barrier Trial1.4L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 48%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 37% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (58-days). Metro-placed racemare. Unable to make an impression at Gosford when second-up but sharper now and the shorter trip may suit. Danger.

ILB

Back from a freshen up. At $14.00 folded up in the straight when 5th last time at Gosford. Capable of a strong comeback. Should muster plenty of early toe. Should give this a shake.

Some promise; closest she has come to winning after six starts was a third; finished last of five over 5½f at Gosford (handicap) two months ago; trainer has been going through a quiet spell; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Freshened for this. Odds of 13/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 5th last time at Gosford. Capable of bouncing back and gets a favourable draw. Gets a solid chance here.

5Final GiftScratched9––––

Career

11: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
6: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
7: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1

Last starts

6Gosford1000m28 Aug 2026 · Maiden · SOFT55.6L
7Newcastle900m13 Aug 2026 · 3yo · GOOD46L
7Newcastle900m11 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT65.9L
5Newcastle900m13 June 2026 · MDN · SOFT62.6L
7Newcastle900m23 May 2026 · 2yo · HEAVY97.2L
6Wyong1000m30 Apr 2026 · MDN · GOOD44.8L
5Wyong1000m16 Apr 2026 · MDN · GOOD45L
3Muswellbrook900m6 Apr 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT50.59L

Insights

Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 36 days

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Started $41 when safely held in Maiden company at Gosford. Looks up against it.

ILB

Lacklustre showing when 6th last time at Gosford.

Still winless and defeats stacking up (11 on the bounce) and generally struggled of late; out of the frame when sixth at Gosford over 5f (handicap) five weeks ago; others appeal more.

RSIS

Not up to scratch when 6th last run at Gosford.

6Intense DreamJ: Liberty Smyth·T: Nathan Doyle755kg1$1.80$1.18

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Newcastle1000m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-4.1

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:2-0-0). $60k filly. Has made a decent statement in her trial work. Liberty Smyth sticks for debut. Betting may provide a clearer picture.

ILB

Nathan Doyle 3yo debutant by Bivouac. Interesting to see the ear muffs go on for the first time. Unbeaten in multiple trials. Watch the market.

Sibling of Faraway Dream (5f winner); the only newcomer in the field; trainer has a good record with newcomers here; plenty of appeal as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

First time at the races 3yo by Bivouac for trainer Nathan Doyle. Interesting gear change of hood on first time. Shown serious potential winning all trials. Large claim helps.

7Lady TaleaJ: Mitchell Bell·T: J C Coyle655kg4 4 6 5 49: 0-1-2$17.00$4.20

Career

9: 0-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
3: 0-1-2
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-2
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
3: 0-1-2
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0

Last starts

4Wyong1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.7L
5Kembla Grange1000m15 Aug 2026 · MID MDN-SW · GOOD43.6L
6Kembla Grange1000m8 Aug 2026 · MDN HCP · GOOD42L
4Wyong1000m23 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT72.1L
4Warwick Farm815m26 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)0.9L
3Newcastle900m23 Aug 2025 · MDN-SW · HEAVY101.8L
3Newcastle900m9 Aug 2025 · Maiden · HEAVY101.3L
2Newcastle900m12 July 2025 · Maiden · SOFT53.2L

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Now 4 weeks between runs. Battled home into 4th in the small field at Wyong after a market ease. Drops to shorter trip. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Jumped at $18.00 and ran 4th last run at Wyong and back to a shorter trip. Should be going forward early. Has some claims.

Creditable effort to finish fourth, beaten 2½l over 6f at Wyong (handicap) last month; yet to open her account after nine starts.

RSIS

At 17/1 finished 4th last start at Wyong and back in trip. Likely to be well placed early. Has some claims.

8Long LiveScratched5––––

Career

7: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Mudgee
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0

Last starts

5Newcastle900m19 Sept 2026 · MID MDN-SW · GOOD43.12L
9Coffs Harbour1010m3 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD49.4L
2Scone900m17 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT51.5L
4Newcastle800m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.1L
6Quirindi1000m13 July 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT74.9L
1Scone800m1 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-3.6
4Mudgee1400m5 Apr 2026 · Maiden · GOOD34.7L
4Goulburn1300m22 Mar 2026 · Maiden · SOFT70.9L

Insights

Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Got back and only battled to wire this venue last outing. Had some excuses there. Each way.

ILB

Odds of $10.00 and came in 5th last time at this venue but gets some weight taken off.

Seven-race maiden though does have a second place to his name; not beaten too far when fifth here in a maiden two weeks ago; easy to oppose.

RSIS

At 9/1 ran 5th last run at this venue but suited by the weight drop.

9Wild CourageJ: Louise Day·T: C Maher355kg9 2 3 4 42: 0-0-1$3.50$1.55

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
4Hawkesbury1100m21 May 2026 · Maiden · HEAVY84.24L
3Newcastle900m23 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN SW · SOFT51.8L
2Hawkesbury800m23 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)0.2L
9Rosehill900m10 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)10L
4Warwick Farm818m31 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial1L
6Warwick Farm805m17 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial2.7L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Maher filly kicking off second campaign (19-weeks). In the minors at Newcastle on debut last campaign while warmed up with 2 trials. Better barrier may help. Can show more this time in. Among chances.

ILB

First up from a break of 19 weeks and managed to run into 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L first up last preparation at the track. Expecting to settle positively. Represents value in this race.

Not beaten that far (Hawkesbury) in May in a maiden; returns from a layoff; likely to be thereabouts.

RSIS

Resuming and zipped home into 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L resuming last preparation here. Should be going forward early. Yet to place in all trials and dropping in distance. Competitive type.

Odds correct as at Sat 3 Oct, 3:20 pm AEST. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Mon 26 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Tue 6 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Fri 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races