Shortest win price
Chilli Reaper (7)
3.90
Welcome to Murray Bridge for some competitive racing on a good four track under an overcast sky as we tackle the Orange Pumps and Aap Industries benchmark fifty-six over the sharp one thousand metre dash. Punters hunting for early value in the market will find Chilli Reaper sitting at the top of the win market order, closely followed by Super Choice, Jasstar, and Eclair Vitality rounding out the leading fancies as the field prepares to rumble at five forty-five pm aedt.
Looking deeper into the form line for these shorter-priced runners, Chilli Reaper brings a fresh yarn to the table after coming from a mid-field position to mow them down late for a narrow victory at Mount Gambier over nine hundred metres for the new stable, earning plenty of respect. Super Choice has been knocking on the door with honest efforts, including a solid fourth at Morphettville over this exact trip where it made up ground late from the back half with plenty of conviction. Meanwhile, Eclair Vitality arrives with a spring in its step after responding strongly to score in a small field at Jamestown over the thousand metres, and with the claiming apprentice booked again, this runner cannot be easily dismissed by sharp punters.
Further down the race book, the speed map points to a genuine early contest with leaders like Suits and Holder Maid expected to push forward quickly, whilst others like Old Time Rock look to settle handily on the pace from a nice low barrier. Punters weighing up the wider form will note Jasstar is stepping up in class following a held-together run at Gawler, suggesting some of the others might hold more persuasive claims as the race unfolds on home soil.
Shortest win price
Chilli Reaper (7)
3.90
Most career wins
Old Time Rock
7-5-4 from 60 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Super Choice · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 15% better than Career Avg.
Eclair Vitality · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 83%
Old Time Rock · Positive
Nice Barrier
Well drawn from gate 2
Suits · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Midfield, no rally and went to line tamely at Balaklava. Another deep draw to contend with. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Lost ground in the run home when 13th last start at Balaklava. Jason Holder is a suitable booking.
RP
Finished last of 13 at Balaklava two weeks ago; has proven competitive in a race of this nature; plenty of appeal if duplicating the form of his most recent win.
RSIS
Faded to finish 13th last start at Balaklava. Jason Holder is a suitable booking.
Career
9: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 15% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Caitlin Jones 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ran on with some conviction from back half at Gawler when supported. Rates among the better chances.
ILB
Started at $3.80 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last run at Gawler. Should race on the speed. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Recent form has a decent look to it; far from disgraced (beaten just under 2l) over 5½f at Gawler (handicap) 23 days ago; a lot on his plate here and looks risky.
RSIS
Started 11/4 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last start at Gawler. Likely to be well placed early. Will attract plenty of interest.
Career
21: 3-5-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-2-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
3: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
5: 2-0-1
Distance 1008m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
9: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
5: 0-2-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 83%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now
AAP
Responded strongly to score in small field at Jamestown over today's trip. Claiming apprentice engaged again. Don't undersell.
ILB
Winner by 1 1/2L last start at Jamestown and strong performer at this distance. Putting up notable efforts this preparation. Should go close.
RP
Won by 1½l (Jamestown) beating Nostryia and Welcome Gypsy three weeks ago; despite that Jamestown success, easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Bold effort to win by 1 1/2L last start at Jamestown and will be well suited at the trip. Producing consistent results since returning from a break. Solid prospects.
Career
60: 7-5-4
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
9: 1-0-2
Second-up
8: 1-1-0
Third-up
8: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
8: 0-3-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
8: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
12: 1-1-1
Distance 1130m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
29: 2-2-0
Going Heavy
6: 1-1-1
Going Soft
25: 4-2-3
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Won a 900m Restricted 54 at Mt Gambier two back. Ran on late from the back at Ballarat over this distance. Nice gate and big weights don't seem to worry him. Can challenge.
ILB
Jumped at $41.00 and weakened under pressure when 7th last time at Ballarat but has a positive draw. Has early speed and positions nicely. Prefer in something easier.
RP
Wasn't beaten that far when seventh (beaten 2½l, Ballarat) three weeks ago; this line-up contains some strong opposition so may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Was 40/1 and struggled with the pace when 7th last run at Ballarat but has a positive stall. Should come to hand quickly.
Career
15: 4-1-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
9: 3-1-0
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
13: 4-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (13-weeks). Ex C Hunter in Alice Springs. Untried in the wet and drawn deep but best this trip. Look to markets.
ILB
Back after break. Odds of $3.40 and didn't threaten when 4th last time at Alice Springs. Racing for a new trainer. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Fourth beaten 7l at Pioneer Park over 5½f (handicap) in July; admirable career strike-rate (four from 15 to date); first start for stable; one to consider.
RSIS
First run back today. Was 12/5 and weakened to finish 4th last run at Alice Springs. Coming to a new trainer. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall. Could feature here.
Career
4: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Jamestown
1: 1-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Closed off late from the tail at Balaklava. Untested in wet but latest okay and off a better draw. Place at odds.
ILB
Jumped at $101.00 and finished 6th last run at Balaklava. Likely to get back in the field. Hard to see this being competitive today.
RP
Respectable effort finishing sixth (beaten 2½l) at Balaklava 14 days ago; lightly raced (running for just the fifth time); just second start in this company.
RSIS
Started at 100/1 and came in 6th last time at Balaklava. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
11: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Hanging Rock
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 2-2-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 45% in Last 100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jacob Opperman in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 54%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a tight rein and mowed them down late in Hcp (56) at Mt Gambier for new stable. Commands attention here.
ILB
Finished hard to win last start at Mount Gambier. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Back to winning ways over 4½f at Mt Gambier (handicap) three weeks ago on debut for this trainer; could be in the mix.
RSIS
Strong effort to the line to win last time at Mount Gambier. Should go very close.
Career
24: 3-3-4
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
7: 1-3-3
Track Gawler
2: 1-0-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-3
Going Heavy
9: 2-2-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Alysha Warren current POT is 66% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -29%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 69% in L100 rides
Dist Stats
Negative
Has struggled at this distance range
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Forwardly placed, continued to stick on at Mt Gambier. Proven in wet and right in the mix again.
ILB
Tidy run when 3rd last start at Mount Gambier. Expecting to settle positively. Solid chance.
RP
Finished third, beaten 1½l to Chilli Reaper at Mt Gambier over 4½f (handicap) 21 days ago; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Did well when 3rd last start at Mount Gambier. Has early pace and positions nicely. Has definite claims.
Career
25: 3-2-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Lincoln
3: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
5: 2-0-1
Going Good
18: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (20-weeks). Not a known fresh performer and best over a touch further. Has a tricky draw for return. Looks a risk fresh.
ILB
First up from a spell. Started at $7.50 and folded up in the straight when 7th last time at Port Augusta and coming back in trip. Not threatening these.
RP
Finished seventh, beaten 9l, over 7f at Port Augusta (handicap) five months ago; record fresh suggests she might need this run; may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started 13/2 and didn't threaten when 7th last start at Port Augusta and back to a shorter trip.
Career
37: 5-3-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
7: 1-1-1
Second-up
6: 2-0-0
Third-up
6: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
6: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
6: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
6: 2-0-2
Track Murray Bridge
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
18: 2-1-1
Distance 1100m
9: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-2-0
Going Good
16: 3-3-0
Going Heavy
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
15: 1-0-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Jamestown for new trainer. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Was $7.50 and not in contention when 4th last run at Jamestown. Yet to fire this preparation. Alyssa Webb provides some weight relief. Not dismissing.
RP
No threat to winner, Eclair Vitality, at Jamestown three weeks ago (finished last) on debut for this trainer; has proven competitive in a race of this nature; looks likely to be involved.
RSIS
At 13/2 struggled when 4th last run at Jamestown. Struggling lately. The large claim from Alyssa Webb helps.
Career
6: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Gawler
2: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished well held at Gawler. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Odds of $19.00 and faded to finish 8th last run at Gawler. Facing a difficult task today.
RP
Not beaten that far in eighth (4½l) when close behind Super Choice at Gawler over 5½f (handicap) 23 days ago; largely disappointing since successful in a maiden at Balaklava last November; facing a testing assignment and may be vulnerable.
RSIS
Was 18/1 and faded away to finish 8th last start at Gawler.
Career
6: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
3: 1-0-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1516m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Brooke King 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (22-weeks). Lone career win was over 1200m at Strathalbyn in last campaign. Might find this a bit sharp.
ILB
First up after a break. At $16.00 well beaten when 7th last time at Gawler but has a nice advantage with a good draw. Back in trip. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Has raised her game the last twice; was seventh of eight, beaten 8l, at Gawler over 7½f (handicap) in May; returns from a layoff; this only her second start in handicap company.
RSIS
Back after a break. Started at 15/1 and mediocre performance when 7th last time at Gawler but has the ideal stall. Coming back in distance.
Career
11: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
6: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
2: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Murray Bridge
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (42-days). Off pace, no response and trudged home at Balaklava. Since trialled at Balaklava 15 Oct. Warrants attention.
ILB
Let up. Started at $7.00 and was well beaten when 9th last run at Balaklava.
RP
Yet to taste defeat at this track, winning on two visits; has scored over C&D; behind Eclair Vitality (Balaklava) when last of nine six weeks ago.
RSIS
Let up. Was 6/1 and well beaten when 9th last time at Balaklava.
Career
32: 1-10-6
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-3-0
Second-up
5: 0-4-1
Third-up
4: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
8: 0-1-1
Track Strathalbyn
2: 0-0-1
Track Murray Bridge
6: 1-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
5: 1-0-1
Going Good
22: 0-10-5
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 1-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 27% Profit on Turnover
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Went close at Balaklava 16 Sep. Brave in defeat (Bm56) at Balaklava when second-up. Game second only other time over this track and distance. Right in the mix again.
ILB
Kept boxing on when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Balaklava. Amongst the placegetters at every start this preparation.
RP
Finished in front of Captainwackydoodle and Nostryia 14 days ago at Balaklava when a respectable second; has winning track form; admirably consistent.
RSIS
Made some ground late when 2nd beaten by 1L last start at Balaklava. Has not missed the placings of late in 2 attempts.
Career
17: 2-1-4
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
6: 1-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
6: 1-0-2
Track Gawler
4: 1-1-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 2-0-2
Going Soft
5: 1-1-1
Going Good
10: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 45%
AAP
First-up (18-weeks). Form mixed last prep and both wins were at 1100m but trialled twice for return and has the inside gate. Check markets.
ILB
Resumes from a break. Odds of $12.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 13th last time at Morphettville but lining up against easier rivals.
RP
Finished last of 13 at Morphettville over 5½f (handicap) four months ago; useful at this level; has won here previously; returns from a break today.
RSIS
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Started at 11/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 13th last run at Morphettville on a heavy track. Drawn well.