Shortest win price
Oui Oui Ma Cherie (3)
2.05
The Davey Water Handicap at Murray Bridge is a Class 2 affair over 1400 metres in overcast conditions with a GOOD4 track at 4:00 pm AEDT. The market is led by Oui Oui Ma Cherie, followed by Je City, Fiorente Rules, and Safe Bet. This is a race where form lines and track suitability matter more than raw pedigree. The 1400 metres sits nicely for horses coming fresh or needing the longer trip to show their hand, and that detail could well sort the contenders here.
Oui Oui Ma Cherie looks a genuine chance at the shortest odds. Trained by S P Gower and ridden by Caitlin Jones—a jockey running 28 per cent above market expectations over her last hundred rides—the mare won her most recent barrier trial at Morphettville and ran sixth in Class 2 company at the same track last time. The form comment notes she's strips fitter and suited to the longer trip after an extended spell, and at 57 kilograms from barrier nine in the offmidfield group, she has room to work. Je City, next in the market, ran a sound third at Morphettville and fifth at Port Augusta and carries 58.5 kilograms for jockey Dylan Caboche and trainer Kate Halliday. The comment flags her as suited back at provincials and notes she's a key contender; she ran on well last start. Safe Bet, trained by Hazel Fertier and in at 59 kilograms with barrier 2, maps as a leader and has drawn to get a soft run. She's getting fitter, though the stable is under a cloud with a 5 per cent strike rate and runners underperforming market by 67 per cent of late.
Fiorente Rules sits fourth in the market but comes with question marks. The AAP comment says the gelding went home tamely at Penola over this trip and ran poorly at Gawler, and a negative jockey change to Kayla Crowther raises doubt. Royal Muse is worth a mention lower in the order: David Jolly and Justin Potter's stable is running at a profitable 6 per cent return on turnover, and the jockey booking suggests Royal Muse's map position here is outperforming market expectations by 14 per cent. She sits offmidfield and could be primed for a quiet run into the frame. The Leader group of Safe Bet and Kailee's Boy will test the early waters; if Je City or Oui Oui Ma Cherie can settle in the Onpace and Offmidfield lanes respectively, they'll have clear sight of a winning move down the straight.
Shortest win price
Oui Oui Ma Cherie (3)
2.05
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Safe Bet · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Je City · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Oui Oui Ma Cherie · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Rocktagon · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Career
17: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Balaklava
3: 1-0-2
Track Morphettville
10: 1-3-0
Track Murray Bridge
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-1
Going Good
11: 1-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 67%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
In close proximity when battled home at Penola second-up. Drawn to get a soft run. Getting fitter. Can give cheek in this.
ILB
Odds of $12.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last start at Penola. May see an upturn in form and drawn nicely. Has early speed and positions nicely. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Useful at this level; not beaten that far (Penola) 12 days ago; respected as shown he can win fairly recently.
RSIS
Started 11/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last time at Penola. Capable of bouncing back and can find a nice position from the draw. Strong claims.
Career
15: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Balaklava
2: 1-0-0
Track Port Augusta
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1396m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sound effort without troubling winner at Morphettville. Suited back at the provincials. Good second only time this t/d. Key contender.
ILB
Finished amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by 2 1/4L last time at Morphettville and going down in class. Should come to hand quickly. Possible place chance.
RP
Had two of these rivals behind him at Morphettville over 6f (handicap) when beaten just over 2l into third at 100-1 two weeks ago; possible squeak.
RSIS
Came on strongly when 3rd last run at Morphettville and up against a less competitive field. Displays good tactical pace.
Career
14: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-1
Track Gawler
1: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
10: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
11: 1-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Caitlin Jones 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Caitlin Jones winning at 13% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Morphettville off extended spell. Strips fitter and suited over the longer trip. Danger.
ILB
Jumped at $8.00 and appeared lacklustre when 6th last start at Morphettville. Looking past the last run and dropping in grade. Always seems to find the line well. Strong chance.
RP
Suited by this C&D; a few throw outs since her success in a maiden at Murray Bridge Gh in February; split two of these rivals two weeks ago over 6f (handicap) when beaten 3½l in sixth at Morphettville; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Was 7/1 and tailed off when 6th last run at Morphettville. Expected to rebound and going down in class. Will be motoring home late. Will go very close.
Career
26: 2-6-1
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
5: 1-1-0
Track Strathalbyn
3: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
10: 1-1-0
Distance 900m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 0-2-0
Going Good
12: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-2-0
Going Soft
11: 1-2-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 13%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely at Mt Gambier over this journey at $14. Can challenge.
ILB
Started $14.00 and came in 5th last time at Mount Gambier. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Has winning track form; a few throw outs since his success in a handicap at Morphettville in July; was held in fifth at Mt Gambier 21 days ago; passed over.
RSIS
Was 13/1 and came in 5th last run at Mount Gambier. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
8: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
3: 1-1-0
Track Balaklava
3: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (21-weeks). Lone career win was over 1600m at Strathalbyn in last campaign. Expect will need this.
ILB
Fresh today after a break. Odds of $81.00 and looked outclassed when 14th last start at Morphettville but challenged by weaker competitors. Large claim helps. Prefer in a much weaker race.
RP
Finished tailed off over 1m at Morphettville (handicap) in May; has found improvement of late; running in a handicap for only the second time; returns from a layoff; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Fresh from a break. Odds of 80/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 14th last time at Morphettville but goes down in class. Stephanie Wright takes a large claim.
Career
13: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
2: 1-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2010m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1211m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 2-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Bonny Tootell in good form, out performing market 258%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely at Penola over this trip at $7. Unknown in wet. Keener on others.
ILB
Odds of $7.00 and weakened to finish 9th last start at Penola but drawn the rails. Bonny Tootell stable are on fire recently. Forward showing expected.
RP
Not far behind Safe Bet when ninth beaten 4½l (Penola) two weeks ago; one to note.
RSIS
Was 6/1 and weakened to finish 9th last start at Penola but drawn the rails. Stable is in form. Watch the betting.
Career
20: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
5: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
5: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Alysha Warren current POT is 66% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 69% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
AAP
First-up (14-weeks). Had a quiet trial at Balaklava. Has speed. One for exotics fresh in this company.
ILB
First up after a break. Odds of $8.50 and ran 5th last run at the track and back in trip. Should jump out and bowl along. Leaving right out.
RP
Not beaten too far when fifth of ten here over 1m2f (handicap) in July; more than capable if on song so he should go close.
RSIS
First run back. At 15/2 finished 5th last run at the track and back to a shorter distance. Should race on the pace.
Career
25: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
3: 1-0-0
Track Clare
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1207m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
13: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 31%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Well back and made limited headway at Penola. Deep into her campaign, could get into the placings.
ILB
Started at $16.00 and inched into 4th last start at Penola but facing a stronger group of contenders.
RP
Came home fourth, beaten 5l, at Penola over 6½f (handicap) two weeks ago; has won here before; not always shown an awful lot since winning a handicap at Murray Bridge Gh in August; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Was 15/1 and picked up some late ground when 4th last run at Penola but rising in grade.
Career
31: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-2
Track Morphettville
5: 0-0-1
Track Strathalbyn
9: 1-0-1
Track Murray Bridge
7: 0-1-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
27: 2-3-3
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Resuming (31-weeks). Competing in stronger races last prep. Untested in wet. One for exotics fresh in this affair.
ILB
First run back from a 31 week break. Started at $101.00 and below standard effort when 8th last run at Morphettville but drops back to a suitable grade. This one has a big task.
RP
An infrequent winner; finished tailed off over 1m3½f at Morphettville (handicap) in March; back from an absence here; he can be taken on.
RSIS
First run back after a break of 31 weeks. Started 100/1 and underperformed when 8th last run at Morphettville but competing in a less challenging grade.
Career
31: 2-3-4
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 1-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-2
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
4: 1-1-1
Track Murray Bridge
6: 0-1-0
Track Gawler
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
19: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
11: 1-2-1
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Long losing streak. Dropped out to last and never sighted at Balaklava. Awkwardly drawn. Rough place prospect only.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and tailed off to finish 11th last time at Balaklava. Should be rolling forward early from the wide alley. Looks hopeful.
RP
Last of 11 over 1m at Balaklava (handicap, behind Togetherforever) 14 days ago; wins infrequently and form has an uneven look to it; he can be taken on.
RSIS
Was 9/1 and lost ground in the run home when 11th last time at Balaklava. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw.
Career
26: 2-1-4
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
6: 0-0-1
Track Murray Bridge
8: 0-0-3
Track Gawler
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1550m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 0-1-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 2-0-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 31%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Struggling
Negative
Doesn’t look to be going well
AAP
Sent out $5.50 when battled home to finish 4th at Balaklava. Drops to shorter trip. Goes into wider exotics.
ILB
Started $5.50 and moved through the field into 4th last start at Balaklava. Yet to fire this campaign. The large claim from Jemma Gutte should help. Watching with interest.
RP
Not beaten that far in fourth (just under 5l) over 1m at Balaklava (handicap) two weeks ago; not always shown an awful lot since winning a handicap at Gawler last November; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Started 9/2 and pushed past some when 4th last time at Balaklava. Has struggled so far lately. The large claim from Jemma Gutte should help.