Shortest win price
Sapling (3)
1.50
Gosford plays host to a competitive Class 1 over the 1200m on a Good 4 track under fine skies, with the jump scheduled for 1:20 pm AEDT. Punters sizing up the Paul Finn Memorial Midway Hcp will find a fascinating win market taking shape. Looking at the early betting order, Sapling holds down the shortest quote to kick things off, closely followed by Sun To Me, Prince De Vega, and Coyote rounding out the top four in the market.
Digging into the form lines behind those shorter prices reveals some intriguing narratives for the yarn-spinners. Sapling resumes from an 18-week spell for trainer Nacim Dilmi, getting the nod from Winona Costin with the benefit of a very good recent barrier trial win at Newcastle over 800m, suggesting the fresh state suits. Meanwhile, Sun To Me lines up for P M Perry with Regan Bayliss in the saddle off the back of a honest minor placing at Newcastle over 1250m and a maiden win at Tuncurry, giving this honest four-year-old a genuine look in this company. Prince De Vega also warrants respect from barrier 2 for J C Deamer, aiming to bounce back after finding the 1500m a bit too far at Hawkesbury last time out.
For punters hunting a deeper angle on the map, speed groups show Firework possesses early speed which can prove a handy advantage on this circuit, while Coyote returns from a 19-week break for Peter D Green after placing in the minors at Newcastle first-up last campaign. With tactical maps playing a crucial role around this track, keep an eye on how the speed unfolds when they jump.
Shortest win price
Sapling (3)
1.50
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Sun To Me · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
El Qasabi · Negative
Trainer SR
David Pfieffer striking at just 13%
Sapling · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Coyote · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are under performing market expectations by -39%
Career
12: 1-2-4
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
6: 0-2-2
Track Wyong
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1250m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-1-3
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 28%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
AAP
Honest 4yo. Posted a well deserved maiden win this trip at Tuncurry then let down really well at Newcastle second-up. Can challenge again.
ILB
Zipped home into 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last time at Newcastle. Amongst the placegetters at every start this preparation. Has a nice turn of foot. Outside chance.
RP
Shown recent signs of improvement; creditable effort when 14-1 second at Newcastle three weeks ago.
RSIS
Made considerable ground when 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last run at Newcastle. Been in the top three each attempt of late. Always seems to find the line well.
Career
9: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1
Trainer SR
Negative
David Pfieffer striking at just 13%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 20%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Cleared maiden ranks at Kembla Grange 24 Feb. Failed to flatter at Newcastle off long break. Strips in better shape. Can find a few lengths.
ILB
At $8.50 struggled with the pace when 9th last start at Newcastle. Likely to bounce back. Shows very good closing speed. Capable of winning this.
RP
Finished behind Sun To Me back down to this trip when finishing last of nine at Newcastle last month; useful at this level and seems to be improving based on last two runs; can give it a good shot if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and faded to finish 9th last time at Newcastle. Should bounce back. Should be swooping on the field late. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
Career
11: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Winona Costin 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Winona Costin winning at 12% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 32%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). Capable fresh and latest trial work very good. Drawn to effect. Warrants attention fresh in this company.
ILB
First up after a break. Jumped at $6.50 and faded to finish 9th last start at Randwick Kensington on a heavy track. Should improve from the last run. Has every chance.
RP
First-time blinkers had no impact when last of nine at Randwick four months ago; has had some time off; she's worth a go with a bit more luck as excuses last time (hampered) and has shown some ability on occasion.
RSIS
Fresh after a break. Odds of 11/2 and struggled with the pace when 9th last time at Randwick Kensington on a heavy track. Giving another chance here. Drawn nicely. Should go well.
Career
15: 1-2-5
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-2
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-1
Track Mudgee
1: 0-1-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 0-1-1
Going Good
8: 1-1-4
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -39%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (19-weeks). In the minors at Newcastle first-up last campaign while cruising through a winning trial at Hawkesbury. Big show fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up from a break of 19 weeks and hit the line well when 3rd first up last preparation at Newcastle. Finishes off strongly. Will find this grade easier. Watch betting.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 at Hawkesbury in June in a conditions race; layoff to overcome.
RSIS
Resuming and did well to run into 3rd resuming last preparation at Newcastle. Will be hitting the line strongly. Success in a trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 20th.
Career
11: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
3: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1262m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Chad Lever current POT is 15% below Career Avg.
Hot Trainer
Positive
Kylie Gavenlock in good form, out performing market 44%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 33% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened after return. Never sighted at Hawkesbury first run back. Home track advantage but has a tricky draw. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and weakened to finish 9th last run at Hawkesbury. Difficult to warm to at present.
RP
Last of nine over 5½f at Hawkesbury (handicap) last month; others appeal more.
RSIS
At 100/1 didn't find the line when 9th last time at Hawkesbury.
Career
15: 1-4-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-2-0
Second-up
4: 0-2-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
4: 0-2-1
Track Gosford
2: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-3-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-3-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Gosford
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (12-weeks). Only win to date was this distance. Capable of making an impact fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Fresh from a break. Started at $9.50 and mediocre performance when 6th last start at Hawkesbury and down in distance. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Has scored over C&D; beaten a fair way when sixth at Hawkesbury over 7½f (handicap) three months ago; second at Gosford four months ago and ought to be considered.
RSIS
Racing fresh after a break. Started 17/2 and was ordinary when 6th last run at Hawkesbury and will be down in distance. Has definite claims.
Career
12: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-2-1
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
8: 1-2-2
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 32%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Handily placed but lacked the necessary pick-up at Hawkesbury over longer assignment. Drawn to get a soft run and expecting a stronger showing.
ILB
Jumped at $6.50 and came in 4th last time at Hawkesbury. Should improve here and gets a favourable draw. Blinkers go on for the first time but down in trip. Has strong claims.
RP
Not beaten that far at Hawkesbury three weeks ago upped to 7½f; producing solid form figures; passed over.
RSIS
Odds of 11/2 and came in 4th last run at Hawkesbury. Should improve and has a good draw. Blinkers go on for the first time but dropping in distance. Competitive type.
Career
26: 1-3-4
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Wyong
6: 0-1-0
Track Gosford
2: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
4: 1-2-0
Going Soft
11: 0-1-2
Trainer SR
Negative
Mick Attard striking at just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 77%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 79% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
On a short back-up. Long winning drought. Taken back and safely held in shallow field at Wyong over today's trip. Looks up against it.
ILB
On a short turnaround. At $91.00 below par when 5th last start at Wyong. Unlikely to go close.
RP
Managed just one success in his career to date; not beaten that far in fifth (3l) at Wyong a week ago; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Started 90/1 and mediocre attempt when 5th last run at Wyong.