Shortest win price
Mapleton Hill (3)
1.70
Pioneer Park's opener is a Maiden Plate over 1200 metres on a Good track in fine conditions, and the punters have made a clear order of things in the win market. Mapleton Hill sits shortest, followed by Supreme Valkyrie, then Startyourengine and Upcoming Season rounding out the top four. It's a race with meaningful form lines behind the shorter prices, and the speed map tells its own story: Denuto and Iz Shaft shape to lead, Mapleton Hill and Startyourengine will sit onpace, Supreme Valkyrie in the midfield, and Upcoming Season at the back.
Mapleton Hill, drawn one and ridden by Lek Maloney, has genuinely warmed up at this venue over today's trip at wide odds, according to the form guide. That second-up run came a whisker from getting home—a length-and-a-half second in a Maiden at Alice Springs over 1100 metres—and the map position here suits the track itself, outperforming market expectations. Sectionals suggest this runner goes hard early, which syncs with an onpace lane and the narrative of a horse hitting form. Supreme Valkyrie, barrier two for Kym Healy and Ianish Luximon, is having its first run for new connections after a long let-up of 24 weeks. The jockey-trainer combination is winning at 26 per cent over their last 100 runners, and the mare's map position is again suited to this track. Fresh off a South Australian campaign, it was not pushed out at a trial and the stable is playing it safe early, which reads as a horse being held together nicely for a tilt.
Startyourengine rates highly in the ratings at 100, but four weeks between runs and an inability to make an impression at this track tell a cautionary tale. Paul Denton's recent run over 1100 metres here yielded a fifth, nearly nine lengths off the mark. The trainer-jockey combo is losing ground in their last 100 racers, and Greg Connor's strike rate of 10 per cent doesn't inspire confidence. Worth considering further down the form is Denuto, whose recent POT sits 24 per cent better than career average and whose stable combination is outperforming market expectations by 58 per cent—a statistical outlier that suggests Jessica Booth and Leah Walling-Denton are in rare touch. The form suggests Mapleton Hill is the story of the race: warming up, well drawn, and suiting the track at odds that don't match the picture.
Shortest win price
Mapleton Hill (3)
1.70
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Onpace
Leader
Denuto · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Iz Shaft · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Mapleton Hill · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Startyourengine · Negative
Trainer SR
Greg Connor striking at just 10%
Career
23: 0-3-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
16: 0-1-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast Poly Track
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Going Good
18: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%
Key Jockey
Positive
Jessica Booth winning at 16% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Continues to race without success. Ordinary performance in small field this track over longer test. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Jumped at $61.00 and tailed off to finish 6th last start at this track and coming back in trip. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Difficult to warm to at present.
RP
Finished sixth, beaten 10l, over 1m here (handicap) in first-time blinkers last month.
RSIS
Odds of 60/1 and faded away to finish 6th last start here and back in trip. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
28: 0-3-3
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
3: 0-0-0
Track Tennant Creek
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
9: 0-0-3
Distance 1100m
12: 0-3-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Unable to make an impression this track. Could spring a surprise.
ILB
Started at $20.00 and folded up in the straight when 6th last time at the track. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. This looks a tough assignment.
RP
Behind three of these over 5½f here (maiden) when last of six four weeks ago; still winless and defeats stacking up (28 on the bounce); others appeal more.
RSIS
Odds of 19/1 and weakened to finish 6th last start here. Likely to be well placed early.
Career
12: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track Stawell
2: 0-0-0
Track Alice Springs
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1307m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS
AAP
On a short back-up. Warmed up nicely late this venue over today's trip at wide odds. Drawn favourably. Right in this.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Came in 4th last start at this track but will appreciate a good draw. Will be positive in the run early. Modest hope.
RP
Seems to be improving based on last two runs; respectable display to finish fourth, beaten 2½l in a handicap last Saturday; if he is able to build on his most recent effort then has a decent shout.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Came in 4th last start at this track but can save some energy from the draw. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
8: 0-2-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Alice Springs
5: 0-2-2
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-2-2
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
8: 0-2-2
Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Connor striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 42%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Unable to make an impression this track. Rates highly in this affair.
ILB
At $5.50 weakened under pressure when 5th last time here. Has the ability to turn things around. Can highly recommend.
RP
Split a number of these rivals over 5½f here (maiden) when beaten 9l (fifth of six) last month; improved form the last twice; strong claims.
RSIS
Was 9/2 and didn't find the line when 5th last start at this track. May see an upturn in form. The one to catch.
Career
15: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Clare
1: 0-1-0
Track Oakbank
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
5: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1050m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
9: 0-2-1
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (24-weeks). Ex M J Seyers in SA. Not pushed out Murray Bridge Gh trial 29 Oct. Keeping safe at first run for new stable.
ILB
Fresh after a break. Lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at Balaklava. Expecting improvement here and has a positive barrier. One of the value chances in this race.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 4½l, finishing eighth of 12 at Balaklava over 7f (maiden) in May; still winless and defeats stacking up (15 on the bounce) and largely been out of sorts; returns from a layoff; first run for stable; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Back from a break. Struggled with the pace when 8th last run at Balaklava. Happy to overlook that run and will try to take advantage of the draw.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Alice Springs
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 38% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 47%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 55% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 48% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
AAP
On a short back-up. Steps out for third run new stable/region. Never sighted this track over this journey. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
On a short back up. Disappointing outing when 8th last start around here. Definite contender.
RP
Finished behind Mapleton Hill a week ago when last of eight in a handicap; lightly raced with this just his fourth appearance; can be in the thick of things.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Mediocre performance when 8th last run around here. Has some claims.