Shortest win price
Bradford (1)
1.30
Welcome to our Tamworth coverage for the Tamworth City Toyota Plate, a Class 1 set weights contest over 1600m on a soft 5 surface with fine weather overhead. The local crowd settled in for a fascinating tactical battle as the market sorted out the chances. Looking at the win market order, Bradford sits as the shortest-priced runner at the top of the board, followed closely by Tacitly, Tasman Deel, and Kenisis holding down the next lines of betting in this competitive field.
Delving into the form of the market leaders, Bradford jumps off the page after breaking clear to win impressively at this venue over 1400m for trainer Cody Morgan. With Aaron Bullock back in the saddle from barrier 3, this leader has the right credentials to dictate terms. Meanwhile, Tacitly brings some solid city and provincial form, including a strong-finishing second at Newcastle over 1850m before dropping back in trip here, giving Braith Nock and trainers Annabel and Rob Archibald a live chance to figure in the finish.
Further down the win market order, Tasman Deel presents an interesting angle for punters, coming out of the stable of P Messara and L Gavranich. This four-year-old ran a cracking race when just edged out by a narrow margin in soft going at Taree over 1615m and maps to be right on the pace from barrier 5. Kenisis is another local chance with two minor placings at this track from two attempts, though drawing barrier 8 makes things tricky. With Bradford expected to lead the speed group and others like Tasman Deel pressing forward from the gates, it shaped up as a true test of stamina over the mile.
Shortest win price
Bradford (1)
1.30
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Bradford · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Famahan · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Tacitly · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Velocette · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Career
9: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-1-1
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Broke clear to win impressively this venue for new trainer. Drawn well and A Bullock up again. Fit from racing, has claims for a repeat.
ILB
Reeled them in when winning last start at the track and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Attracts support.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement; came good at the ninth time of asking last month here over 7f (maiden) on debut for this trainer; despite that Tamworth success, others more likely.
RSIS
Ran on hard when winning last start at the track and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Has early pace and positions nicely. Aaron Bullock rates highly. Well respected contender.
Career
14: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Scone
3: 1-0-0
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Track Gunnedah
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-2-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 0-2-3
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 37%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 42% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Just missed at Tamworth 14 Sep. Out the back, closed with raking strides in the (Bm58) this course over today's trip. Super fit from racing, could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Close to claiming the win last run at this track. Displays good finishing speed. Exhibiting good form this campaign. Will relish the track conditions. Could feature here.
RP
Not beaten far last month in a handicap; sole victory becoming a distant memory; not been able to get his head in front lately so looks risky.
RSIS
Close up last run at the track. Showing positive results recently. Will be trying to topple them late. 1 win from 2 starts have been on soft going. Could be in the mix.
Career
10: 1-5-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-2-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
3: 0-2-1
Track Newcastle
2: 0-2-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1820m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1840m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-4-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Braith Nock current POT is 27% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Positive betting profile. Solid rally into the placings at Newcastle when supported. Switching to 1600m. Commands attention here.
ILB
Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd beaten by close to 3 1/2L last start at Newcastle and taking on easier opposition. Should be swooping on the field late. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
RP
Shade disappointing to finish runner-up when second favourite over 1m1f at Newcastle (conditions race) last month; may be involved.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 2nd beaten by nearly 3 1/2L last time at Newcastle and will appreciate the drop in class. Gets a favourable stall. Tough competitor.
Career
3: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 1-0-0
Track Kempsey
1: 0-0-0
Track Bowraville
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1370m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
AAP
On a short back-up. Knuckled down well from midfield to salute at Goulburn over this trip. Could get into the placings.
ILB
On a quick back up. Dashed home to win last time at Goulburn and promising career start. In good order this preparation and form has been improving over recent runs.
RP
Opened account at the third time of asking last week (Goulburn) upped to this trip in a handicap; likely to be thereabouts.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Ran on hard when winning last time at Goulburn and promising career start. In strong racing shape lately and displaying improvement over the past few runs.
Career
4: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Accounted for rivals smartly at Dubbo. Draw makes the job harder. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Dashed home to win last start at Dubbo and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Shows good early pace. Rough chance.
RP
Opened account at the fourth time of asking when in front by 1½l at Dubbo last month in a handicap; clear chance.
RSIS
Rocketed home when winning last run at Dubbo and showing improvement in recent outings. Should be going forward early.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
Too good in the small field at Armidale. Ms M Weir retains the ride. First try over a mile but going well and stays under strong notice.
ILB
Controlled the pace to win by 4 1/4L last run at Armidale and good career start. In strong racing shape since coming back from a break.
RSIS
Dictated terms in front when winning by 4 1/4L last start at Armidale and solid career start. Exhibiting good form in recent runs.
Career
15: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 1-1-0
Track Scone
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1
Hot Trainer
Positive
Les Roberts in good form, out performing market 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 27% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Started $71 when safely held in Class 2 company at Scone over this trip. Back to a C1 helps but lift needed.
ILB
Jumped at $71.00 and struggled with the pace when 6th last time at Scone but drawn well. Should muster plenty of early speed. Will need to elevate.
RP
Not disgraced when sixth in a handicap at Scone last month; generally modest form since handicap success at Muswellbrook in July; passed over with a number of her rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Was 70/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last start at Scone but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw.
Career
6: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 1-0-0
Track Scone
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Scone first up. Has a tricky draw. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Jumped at $18.00 and didn't attack the line when 6th last run at Scone.
RP
Not beaten that far in a handicap at Scone two weeks ago; one to note if finding her best form.
RSIS
Started 17/1 and was well beaten when 6th last run at Scone.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-1
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1615m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 31% in L100 rides
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Arrowfield 4yo. Form from three runs has been respectable. Ran a cracking race when just edged out in soft going at Taree 22 Sep. Up in class but must respect.
ILB
Was agonizingly close last run at Taree and showing consistent performance in races. Recent form of Leah Gavranich & Paul Messara is strong. Good chance of taking this out.
RP
Favourite and just came up short in a maiden (Taree) upped to this distance last month.
RSIS
Close up last time at Taree and promising career start. Putting up notable efforts recently. Stable is in form. Rates as one of the key chances.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Dubbo. Placed only other run at Tamworth. Super fit from racing, hope for exotics only.
ILB
Started at $3.60 and ran 6th last time at Dubbo.
RSIS
Started 13/5 and finished 6th last time at Dubbo.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Trainer SR
Negative
Derek Piper striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Unplaced in all 4 runs to date. Rider found a forward spot at Dubbo but she put in a very lacklustre finish. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Finished 7th last time at Coonamble.
RP
Finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (just under 5l, Coonamble) yesterday; others more persuasive; held an entry at Coonamble Sunday.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Came in 7th last time at Coonamble.
Career
6: 0-1-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Tamworth
2: 0-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-2
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-3
Going Good
4: 0-1-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Outgunned but did enough for third at $7.50 this venue second-up. Has a tricky draw. Hard to warm to.
ILB
Finished strongly when 3rd beaten by 5 3/4L last run at this venue. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign. Sharp improvement needed.
RP
Has raised her game the last twice; third in course maiden, 6l off winner last month.
RSIS
Made some ground late when 3rd beaten by 5 3/4L last run at the track. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts lately.
Career
8: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moree
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
3: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Sally Torrens striking at just 5%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure over this trip in the Mdn Plate this track. This looks a tall order.
ILB
Jumped at $61.00 and below par when 6th last start at the track. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Anna Weatherlake takes a large claim. Prefer in something a lot easier.
RP
Yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at eight; sixth of nine beaten 5l in a maiden 11 days ago; a few rivals look in good form so has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Was 60/1 and ordinary performance when 6th last time here. Blinkers go on for the first time. Large claim helps.