Bairnsdale (VIC) horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 1:50 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Bairnsdale (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Mon 12 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Mon, 12 OctBairnsdale (VIC)Change

Race 8 — TRFM (Bm56) 1600m · jumps Mon 12 Oct, 5:55 pm AEDT

Race notes

3UP BM56 HCP,3yo+,BM56,Benchmark 56
SOFT5
Overcast
9 runners

Shortest win price

Prevention (9)

3.50

Most career wins

Delightful Journey

7-5-5 from 55 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

10Torn

Offmidfield

2Cryptic Clue

Midfield

4Great Prosperity
18Preservator
17Spirit Angel

Offpace

3Rich King
14Shubael

Leader

8Delightful Journey
9Prevention

Cryptic Clue · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rich King · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Great Prosperity · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 51% lower than Career Avg.
Delightful Journey · Negative
Trainer SR
Christine Sexton striking at just 3%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Octane ReignScratched2––––

Career

13: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-0-1
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Geelong1525m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.8L
8Seymour1429m10 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT512.5L
1Pakenham Synthetic1400m24 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD3-0.4
10Bendigo1300m30 July 2026 · 2UP CLASS 1 HCP · SOFT66.8L
5Pakenham Synthetic1000m7 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC4.4L
7Hobart2200m6 Feb 2026 · 3yo · GOOD42.8L
5Caulfield1800m31 Jan 2026 · 3Y BM70 · GOOD43.1L
1Seymour1600m15 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD3-0.8

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 32% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Not disgraced at Geelong at $61. Can show early speed. One for multiples.

ILB

Ran 5th last time at Geelong but competing in a less challenging grade. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Large claim helps and has a good draw.

Out of the frame (beaten just under 4l in fifth) at Geelong over 7½f (handicap) last month; this looks a fair heat so others more persuasive.

RSIS

Finished 5th last run at Geelong but drops back to a suitable class. Should come to hand quickly. Chelsea Thompson provides some weight relief and gets a favourable draw.

2Cryptic ClueJ: Bailey Kinninmont·T: Matthew Brown1163kg8 1 1 10 1029: 5-0-2$18.00$3.70

Career

29: 5-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 2-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 2-0-1
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1514m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1535m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
15: 2-0-2
Going Heavy
5: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 2-0-0

Last starts

10Geelong1325m23 Sept 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD36.81L
10Seymour1600m13 Apr 2026 · BM56 · SOFT520.7L
1Bairnsdale1600m22 Mar 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD4-0.8
1Colac1600m1 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT7-0.4
8Kyneton1856m31 Jan 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD35L
7Terang1850m2 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.6L
3Wangaratta1590m6 Dec 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD42.8L
4Seymour1600m13 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.1L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Track And Dist
Positive
Loves at this track and trip
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
2nd Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 3 when second up

Comments

AAP

Settled back and didn't figure off long spell in the 3yo+ Hcp (62) at Geelong. Hard to make a case.

ILB

At $151.00 below par performance when 10th last start at Geelong but up against a less competitive field. Gets back and needs luck. Has more weight to carry. Looks hopeful.

Finished tenth of 12 over 6½f at Geelong (handicap) last month; this C&D holds no fears; this is his level; one to consider as he knows how to get the job done and his last run (after a break) should have set him up for this.

RSIS

Started 150/1 and below standard effort when 10th last run at Geelong but matched against lesser competition. Might be ridden for luck. Will have to carry more weight.

3Rich KingJ: Jake Noonan·T: M M Laurie962.5kg3 5 4 3 15: 1-0-2$5.50$1.95

Career

5: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-2
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

1Bendigo1500m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-1.3
3Ballarat Synthetic1400m18 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC2L
4Terang1406m20 Feb 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD43.3L
5Pakenham1400m5 Feb 2026 · 3-5yo · GOOD41.7L
3Cranbourne1400m22 Jan 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD31L

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 36 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Really gutsy performance on the speed on a soft deck at Bendigo second-up. J Noonan retains the ride. All the better, major player here despite big impost.

ILB

Ran home strongly to win last run at Bendigo and good career start. Has not missed the placings this preparation in 2 attempts. Competitive type.

Has arguably shown improved form the last twice; got the job done by just over 1l five weeks ago when registering his first success at the fifth time of asking at Bendigo in a maiden; definite chance.

RSIS

Charged home to win last run at Bendigo and promising career start. In the top three at every start of late and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Definite claims for punters.

4Great ProsperityJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Luke Oliver662kg4 3 10 3 321: 2-1-9$8.00$2.45

Career

21: 2-1-9

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Cranbourne
3: 1-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-1
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2219m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
8: 2-0-3
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-4
Going Soft
6: 0-1-2

Last starts

3Moe1614m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY81.5L
3Wangaratta1590m31 July 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY90.5L
10Sale1746m9 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY916.2L
3Geelong1425m19 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY96L
4Mornington1200m25 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT54L
2Wangaratta2000m27 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.5L
1Kyneton1856m9 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD3-1.3
3Hamilton1400m15 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.75L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 51% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Luke Oliver striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -27%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Courageous effort in the 3yo+ (Bm56) at Moe. Could get into the placings.

ILB

Came on strongly when 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last run at Moe. Been in the money regularly this preparation. Good prospects.

Ran encouragingly when 1½l third at Moe (had Preservator (fifth) and Delightful Journey (towards the rear) behind) last month; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so others more likely.

RSIS

Did well to place 3rd last start at Moe on a heavy rated track. In good order since resuming from a break. Very tidy performer.

5Mike's HopeScratched11––––

Career

7: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-1-1
Going Good
5: 1-1-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Swan Hill1600m22 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.75L
9Bendigo1600m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.3L
3Pakenham Synthetic1600m16 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD30.5L
6Sandown1400m2 Aug 2026 · BM66 · SOFT75.2L
1Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
4Sandown1600m4 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.5L
3Cranbourne1400m10 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

Came home with a wet sail to grab second 3yo+ (Bm62) at Swan Hill over this journey at odds of $6.50. Soft proven, heavy unknown. Can challenge again.

ILB

Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd last start at Swan Hill. In the placings frequently this campaign.

Not beaten far at Swan Hill last month; should go close.

RSIS

Made some ground late when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last start at Swan Hill. Showing great form of late.

6Sheer LunacyScratched6––––

Career

51: 7-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
4: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
17: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
10: 1-2-0
Going Soft
24: 5-1-3

Last starts

7Warrnambool1700m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY96.86L
4Wodonga1590m1 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT63.8L
1Wangaratta1590m23 Aug 2026 · BM56 · SOFT7-0.3
5Wodonga1300m17 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY82.4L
5Albury1600m29 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY91.7L
7Ballarat1500m12 June 2026 · 0 - 62 · HEAVY83.9L
5Geelong1400m22 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · SOFT52.65L
6Kilmore1200m4 May 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY97.5L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Ben Brisbourne striking at just 10%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $61 when safely held in Benchmark 62 company in heavy ground at Warrnambool. First time around Bairnsdale. Lacks appeal here.

ILB

Came in 7th last run at Warrnambool but facing less formidable opponents.

No impression when seventh of 12 at Warrnambool over 1m½f (handicap) 11 days ago; may have to settle for supporting role as has a lot on his plate here.

RSIS

Ran 7th last run at Warrnambool but facing a weaker grade.

7GymkhanaScratched10––––

Career

27: 3-1-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
7: 1-0-2
Second-up
6: 0-0-1
Third-up
6: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
3: 1-0-2
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-3

Last starts

6Kilmore1600m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35L
7Mornington1500m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.63L
4Ballarat Synthetic1400m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC1.3L
4Pakenham1600m26 Mar 2026 · 0 - 62 · HEAVY98.5L
1Geelong1715m14 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD4-0.4
9Pakenham2000m19 Feb 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD44.5L
4Yarra Valley1950m7 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD43.2L
9Cranbourne1600m22 Jan 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD33.4L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 373%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track

Comments

AAP

Trimmed margin late at Kilmore over this journey. Has an adverse draw and a hefty impost. Others more persuasive.

ILB

Started $16.00 and finished 6th last run at Kilmore.

Has scored over C&D; hasn't really fired since his success in a handicap at Geelong in March; not beaten too far when sixth at Kilmore when close behind Spirit Angel last month; meeting some horses in good form and hard to recommend.

RSIS

Started at 15/1 and finished 6th last start at Kilmore.

8Delightful JourneyJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Christine Sexton561kg2 6 10 8 1255: 7-5-5$4.60$1.70

Career

55: 7-5-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 3-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
9: 3-1-1
Track Kyneton
2: 0-1-1
Track Moe
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
13: 1-1-0
Distance 1511m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
17: 1-1-3
Going Good
31: 5-2-2
Going Heavy
7: 1-2-0

Last starts

12Moe1614m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY86.9L
8Sale1400m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT64.4L
10Sale1400m26 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT69.2L
6Sale1728m14 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.6L
2Moe1614m4 Sept 2025 · 3UP CG&E BM62 HCP · HEAVY102.8L
2Moe1600m24 Aug 2025 · BM64 HCP · SOFT60.1L
3Bairnsdale1600m12 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.9L
11Sandown1400m23 July 2025 · BM70 HCP · SOFT54.5L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Christine Sexton striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 46%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 34 days

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Went home tamely in sticky going at Moe at $6. Hard to warm to here.

ILB

Jumped at $6.00 and didn't threaten when 12th last start at Moe on a heavy track. Won't be far away during the run. Teodore Nugent rates highly aboard. Definite contender.

C&D has proven suitable before; form has an up and down look to it; finished towards the rear of 13 upped to this trip at Moe last month; a lot on his plate here and not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

Started 5/1 and lost ground in the run home when 12th last start at Moe on a heavy track. Should jump out and bowl along. Solid prospects.

9PreventionJ: Ruby Lamont·T: R D Griffiths860.5kg2 1 6 6 510: 2-1-0$3.50$1.38

Career

10: 2-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
3: 1-1-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1209m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1325m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0

Last starts

5Caulfield Heath1600m16 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.07L
6Sandown1400m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT72.07L
6Geelong1347m28 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT76.4L
1Geelong1325m14 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY8-3
2Geelong1200m31 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT70.8L
5Bairnsdale1200m13 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT76.5L
11Pakenham Synthetic1100m29 June 2026 · BM62 · GOOD36.2L
5Cranbourne1200m3 Jan 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD35.7L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Ruby Lamont 40% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 371%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 6.5kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Effort tapered late after showing pace in the small field at Caulfield Heath. Can go forward. Can play a role with even breaks.

ILB

At $9.00 weakened to finish 5th last run at Caulfield Heath. Should bounce back and challenged by weaker competitors. Ruby Lamont usually performs well for the Robbie Griffiths stable. Will go close.

Not disgraced when fifth of seven at Caulfield last month; strong contender if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.

RSIS

Started 8/1 and looked outclassed when 5th last start at Caulfield Heath. May see an upturn in form and matched against a less competitive field. Should give plenty of sight.

10TornJ: Patrick Moloney·T: Ben Brisbourne460.5kg4 2 5 6 537: 3-9-6$7.50$2.35

Career

37: 3-9-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1590m
4: 0-2-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
19: 1-6-4
Going Heavy
6: 1-2-0
Going Soft
12: 1-1-2

Last starts

5Warrnambool1400m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.08L
6Bendigo1600m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53L
5Wodonga1400m17 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY85L
2Wangaratta1400m31 July 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY91.8L
4Seymour1600m19 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY93.6L
4Moe1614m18 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY94.3L
5Swan Hill1600m7 June 2026 · 0 - 62 · SOFT55.2L
3Seymour1600m21 May 2026 · 0-62 · SOFT63.3L

Insights

Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue

Comments

AAP

Long winning drought. Okay at latest when settled back. First time around Bairnsdale. Strikes a harder race.

ILB

Started at $11.00 and picked up some ground to run 5th last time at Warrnambool and matched against a less competitive field. Will be motoring home late. One of the punters top hopes.

Not disgraced when fifth at Warrnambool over 7f (handicap) last month; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so is passed over.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and advanced late into 5th last time at Warrnambool and challenged by weaker competitors. Always seems to find the line well. Good chance of taking this out.

11Washington LilacScratched7––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 52%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 45%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 5kg weight here

Comments

AAP

Fair performance without threatening at Bendigo second-up at $21. Can fill the minors here.

ILB

Finished 6th last start at Bendigo but will find this grade more suitable. Will have to carry extra weight.

RSIS

Finished 6th last run at Bendigo but taking on easier opposition. Hoping that the added weight won't hurt.

12Dane On TourScratched13––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 142%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 11%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Produced best late from the back half to win in Restricted 56 company this venue over this trip. Has won on a soft track previously.

ILB

Dashed home to win last time at this venue and form has been improving over recent runs.

RSIS

Picked up nicely to win last start at this track and getting better in recent performances.

13Prestige GeoffreyScratched14––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Insights

Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Drifted back, cut loose late at Echuca after lengthy absence. Strips fitter. Soft tick, heavy query. Could get into the placings.

ILB

On a short back up. Jumped at $11.00 and faded to finish 10th last start at Morphettville but competing in an easier class. Rising in weight.

RSIS

On a quick turnaround. Odds of 10/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Morphettville but challenged by less formidable competitors.

14ShubaelJ: Hayley Spitse·T: Mitchell Leek759kg7 5 10 6 714: 2-1-2$16.00$3.70

Career

14: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
4: 0-0-1
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1443m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1454m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0

Last starts

7Cranbourne2025m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M BM74 HCP · GOOD49L
6Mornington1500m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT54.5L
10Caulfield Heath1600m8 Aug 2026 · 3UP F&M BM74 HCP · SOFT69L
5Sale1600m26 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT63.2L
7Sale1429m9 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY96.1L
2Ballarat Synthetic1400m11 June 2025 · BM64 HCP · SYNTHETIC4.8L
1Geelong1443m23 May 2025 · 2yo+ · GOOD4-0.5
1Kyneton1454m8 May 2025 · 2yo+ · SOFT5-0.5

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Mitchell Leek striking at just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 32%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Cranbourne over longer test. Dropping back to 1600m. Needs a form spike.

ILB

Started at $51.00 and faded away to finish 7th last run at Cranbourne but challenged by less formidable competitors. Interesting gear change of winkers on first time. Large claim helps. Watch for a sign in the market.

Last of seven over 1m2f at Cranbourne (handicap) two weeks ago; this is competitive and easy to oppose.

RSIS

At 50/1 didn't attack the line when 7th last run at Cranbourne but matched against less formidable competition. Interesting gear change of cheekpieces on first time but down in distance. Betting is the best guide.

15Cable De VegaScratched2––––

Career

47: 6-3-8

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
8: 0-0-0
Second-up
6: 0-1-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
5: 1-1-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1619m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
10: 1-0-4
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-1-0
Going Synthetic
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD34.1L
3Kilmore1600m13 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD42.4L
3Berrigan1600m22 Aug 2026 · BM500.5L
5Ballarat Synthetic1400m11 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SYNTHETIC4L
8Pakenham2000m26 Feb 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD46L
4Stony Creek2100m15 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.2L
4Great Western1950m24 Jan 2026 · 3UP HCP · SOFT52.2L
4Werribee1629m12 Jan 2026 · BM56 · GOOD3.75L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Michael Huglin striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 43%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious this track over this journey. Remote place hope at best.

ILB

Jumped at $17.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last time at this track but will try to take advantage of the alley.

Not disgraced in seventh when close behind Preservator last month; this is her grade.

RSIS

Started 16/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at this track but has a positive stall.

16Forest JimScratched5––––

Career

15: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Moe1600m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.77L
5Ballarat Synthetic1400m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC2.3L
8Bairnsdale1600m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT55.6L
10Ballarat Synthetic1500m27 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC7.5L
9Geelong1425m19 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY915.7L
4Sale1400m8 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.7L
4Echuca1400m31 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD33.5L
7Pakenham1200m14 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT73.6L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -70% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 64%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 70% Profit on Turnover
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start

Comments

AAP

Game effort at Moe over this trip last start. Others rate stronger.

ILB

Made considerable ground when 3rd last run at Moe.

Not beaten far at Moe two weeks ago; consistent lately.

RSIS

Ran on when 3rd last time at Moe.

17Spirit AngelJ: Nathan Punch·T: Brian Mcgrath357kg4 2 3 6 331: 2-5-7$8.00$2.50

Career

31: 2-5-7

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-2
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1521m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1606m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1618m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
22: 2-5-6
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Kilmore1600m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.35L
6Pakenham Synthetic1400m24 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD35.1L
3Pakenham Synthetic1200m10 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.4L
2Stony Creek1600m15 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD42L
4Werribee1618m1 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD43.1L
1Hanging Rock1800m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-2.8
7Kerang1400m27 Dec 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD33L
2Wangaratta1300m6 Dec 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD42.3L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 89%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start

Comments

AAP

Finished it off well in the 3yo+ (Bm56) at Kilmore. Yet to place on rain affected going, hard to warm to.

ILB

Good performance to run into 3rd beaten by just short of 2 1/2L last time at Kilmore. In good order since returning from a spell. Has some claims.

Not beaten far when third at Kilmore last month.

RSIS

Did well to run into 3rd last run at Kilmore. Running with confidence since coming back from a break. Has some claims.

18PreservatorJ: Dylan Dunn·T: K J Fythe158kg8 5 5 5 442: 3-3-3$13.00$3.30

Career

42: 3-3-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
7: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
7: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
13: 1-1-0
Distance 1607m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1614m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
22: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 1-0-2

Last starts

4Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD31.5L
5Sale1732m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.8L
5Moe1614m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY82.4L
5Bairnsdale1600m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.6L
8Sale1728m28 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY85.5L
7Bairnsdale1600m12 June 2026 · BM52 · HEAVY82.8L
3Werribee1625m30 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT60.5L
8Pakenham1600m22 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · SOFT64.7L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 46% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Dylan Dunn 67% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 67%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple

Comments

AAP

Last win was 18 Nov. Latest attempt this journey when ran on okay without troubling this course. Looks up against it.

ILB

Started $5.00 and ran on into 4th last start around here and gets the perfect gate. Commands respect.

Fair effort (beaten 1½l) last month; has proven competitive in a race of this nature; brings winning C&D form to the table.

RSIS

Started at 4/1 and pushed past some when 4th last run around here and has the ideal stall. Should go very close.

Odds correct as at Mon 12 Oct, 6:00 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 20 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races