Shortest win price
Cifonelli (1)
1.85
Townsville's Class 5 sprint over 1200 metres shapes up as a genuine affair under overcast skies on a soft track. The win market is cleanly ordered, with Cifonelli the shortest price, followed by Khumbila, Keep Safe and Kickoff. It's the sort of race where form and track nous tell the story — a few runners have logged serious mileage at this venue, and that often counts for plenty over a mile on ground like this.
Cifonelli looks the obvious play here. The mare won last time out over 1000 metres at Townsville on good ground, saluting by just over half a length, and that victory came off a determined effort trained by Georgie Holt with jockey Aidan Holt aboard. The form reads smartly: fastest overall finishing sectionals last start, a four-win record from 18 career starts, and useful form over this course. Backing up quickly from an 850-metre barrier trial, Cifonelli sits as a backmarker in the speedMap, which plays to strength — the fast-finishing profile is the angle here. Kickoff, meanwhile, makes appeal as the leader who's posted sound stats at Townsville over 1200 metres. Two runs here at the distance show three placings, and Anthony Allen's recent performance is running 25 per cent better than career average. The trainer has a modest strike rate overall, but Kickoff's course record and Anthony Allen's hot hand make this one a legitimate roughie.
The speedMap shows Cifonelli as the sole backmarker while Kickoff leads the way, with onpace runners Indefinite and Sand 'N' Power positioned to chase. Khumbila, though second favourite and freshened, has made limited headway at Townsville as a drifter and rates as a one for multiples. Mclovin from barrier one sits midfield and has a trainer-jockey combo outperforming expectations by 42 per cent, a narrative worth following in place bets. Cifonelli's blend of track form, recent victory and explosive finishing sectionals makes her the opinion for the win, though Kickoff's course knowledge and jockey's upswing offer genuine place appeal in what should be a competitive 1200-metre test.
Shortest win price
Cifonelli (1)
1.85
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Cifonelli · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Mclovin · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Khumbila · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Russian Summer · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Career
18: 5-2-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1280m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 5-1-3
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Backing up quickly. Determined effort to secure victory this course. Useful form this track. Major player here.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Ran on hard when winning last start at this track and solid performer at this trip in the past. Can go through the gears. Expected to be competitive.
RP
A winner over this C&D; narrow success in a handicap (dropped back to 5f) a week ago; leading claims.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Was eating up the ground late when winning last start at this track and hard to fault at the trip. Will go close here.
Career
23: 5-1-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Cairns
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-1
Going Good
11: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now
AAP
Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely in the Open Hcp at Innisfail over this distance. Finds a harder setup.
ILB
On a short back up. Tidy run when 2nd last start at Innisfail and has a nice advantage with a good draw. Displays good tactical speed. Tough ask.
RP
Missed out by less than a length at Innisfail last Saturday in a handicap; career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 5-23); entitled to respect.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Did well when 2nd last run at Innisfail and drawn nicely. Should come to hand quickly. On an upward trajectory in recent races.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Long winning drought. Led, dug deep into his reserves but shaded late over 1250m in the (Bm62) at Cairns. Tougher alley. Strikes a harder race.
ILB
Applied plenty of pressure when 2nd last run at Cairns but competing at a higher class.
RSIS
Couldn't keep the pace going when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at Cairns but facing a stronger group of contenders.
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Offpace
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Latest attempt this journey when made limited headway this track. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
At $4.60 ran 5th last start at this venue.
RSIS
Started 7/2 and ran 5th last start at this track.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
AAP
Backing up quickly. Started $6 when safely held in Benchmark 65 company this course. Switching to 1200m. Lost some spark lately but this not beyond him.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Odds of $6.00 and below standard effort when 9th last start around here but drawn nicely.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Started 5/1 and average performance when 9th last run around here but gets a favourable draw.
Career
32: 4-6-6
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Mackay
3: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
18: 4-4-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 37 days
AAP
Freshened. Off pace, made limited headway this venue as a market drifter. Since trialled at Townsville 13 Oct. One for multiples.
ILB
Started $17.00 and hit the line well when 4th last start here. Very competitive this campaign. Lacey Morrison is a bonus. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Has won over C&D; form has an uneven look to it; not disgraced when fourth of ten here over 5f (handicap) 37 days ago; a lot on his plate here and one to tread carefully with.
RSIS
Started 16/1 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last time around here. Showing great form of late. Good to see jockey Lacey Morrison is jumping on. Respect the betting.
Career
44: 4-8-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
7: 0-0-2
Second-up
6: 1-0-2
Third-up
6: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
4: 2-0-0
Track Werribee
3: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
4: 0-1-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1204m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1230m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 1-3-2
Going Synthetic
8: 1-4-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Steven Royes striking at just 9%
Key Rider
Positive
Tahlia Fenlon 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 46%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Tahlia Fenlon in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 29%
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
AAP
Handily placed and worked home soundly at Cairns. Keener on others.
ILB
Started $17.00 and peaked on the run when 4th last run at Cairns but facing a stronger group of contenders. Very unlikely to shake these.
RP
Creditable fourth, beaten 2½l, of ten when behind the reopposing Diamond Lucy at Cairns in a handicap 14 days ago; a winner over this C&D; not always shown an awful lot since winning a handicap at Townsville in January; others more persuasive as not in the habit of winning recently.
RSIS
At 16/1 gave ground when 4th last run at Cairns but facing stiffer opposition.
Career
19: 4-3-4
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-3
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Cairns
3: 2-0-1
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1540m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-2-2
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
9: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-1-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (25-weeks). Placed first-up last campaign while trialling 3 times ahead of return. On pacer. Remote place hope at best fresh in this company.
ILB
First up and amongst the placegetters when 2nd first up last preparation here. Samantha Pointon takes a large claim. Good potential.
RP
Last of seven over 7f here (handicap) six months ago; successful four times from 19 career runs; has had some time off; he should go close.
RSIS
Resuming and honest race when 2nd resuming last preparation at the track. Samantha Pointon provides some weight relief. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
Career
37: 5-4-3
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
7: 0-2-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Track Home Hill
3: 0-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1280m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
21: 4-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
10: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 129%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Rearward in transit then rattled home late to prevail final stages at Cairns. This will test her credentials.
ILB
Flew home to win last time at Cairns but facing a stronger class. Going up in weight. Needs to improve.
RP
Flourishing at present (last six form figures of 514171); a winner over C&D; gained narrow success in a handicap (Cairns) two weeks ago; despite that Cairns success, others more likely.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last time at Cairns but up against stronger rivals. Has to carry more weight this time.
Career
22: 3-4-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Cairns
7: 1-3-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-1
Track Townsville
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1612m
2: 1-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 2-2-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ex Bodine Bailey in QLD. Only picked off late after showing pace at Cairns. Drawn favourably and under less weight. Will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Started $3.50 and came in 4th last time at Cairns but will try to take advantage of the draw. First appearance for a new trainer. Should be going forward early. Can win this.
RP
Respectable fourth in a handicap at Cairns 14 days ago; has winning C&D form to his name; starts out for new trainer; this looks a fair heat so others are preferred.
RSIS
Was 5/2 and came in 4th last run at Cairns but has a good draw. Displays good tactical pace. First appearance for a new trainer. Must be considered here.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Delivered a steely performance to score (Bm65) at Gordonvale. Looks up against it.
ILB
Got the prize when winning by 1 1/2L last time at Gordonvale and showing improvement in recent outings. Exhibiting good form this preparation but challenged by more formidable competitors.
RSIS
Solid win by 1 1/2L last time at Gordonvale and form has been improving over recent runs. Performing honestly since resuming from a break but facing formidable rivals.
Career
26: 3-2-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
6: 1-1-1
Track Eagle Farm
6: 0-0-1
Track Doomben
9: 1-0-1
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
17: 3-2-1
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 3-1-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Julie Busuttin current POT is 14% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 31%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 49% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ex R L Heathcote. Trained here now. Long time since last saluted. Reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Ipswich. Not fancied.
ILB
Started at $4.80 and ran 5th last start at Ipswich. Change in trainer. The large claim from Julie Busuttin helps. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Creditable fifth last week at Ipswich in a handicap; first start for new yard; this line-up contains some strong opposition so may be vulnerable.
RSIS
Started at 4/1 and ran 5th last run at Ipswich. Coming to a new trainer. The large claim from Julie Busuttin helps. Will go close.
Career
18: 3-1-2
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Oak Park
1: 0-0-0
Track Cairns
5: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
14: 3-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (58-days). Ex O Chillemi in QLD. Patchy career. Unable to make an impression at Cairns.
ILB
Let up. Odds of $13.00 and faded away to finish 7th last run at Cairns but goes down in weight. Capable type.
RP
Behind Indefinite over 7f at Cairns (handicap) when last of seven two months ago; he can be competitive at this level; runs for a new trainer here; more than capable if on song so he isn't without hope.
RSIS
Freshened up. Was 12/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last start at Cairns but suited by the weight drop. Definite claims.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Midfield, overhauled them for a strong win this course over today's trip. Warrants attention.
ILB
On a quick back up. Just missed last start at Mackay but up against a higher level of opposition. Has run into the money on multiple occasions this preparation.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Just missed last run at Mackay but facing a stronger class. Running with confidence since returning from a break.
Career
26: 4-2-2
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Port Macquarie
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-0-2
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
7: 1-0-2
Distance 1208m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
13: 3-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 1-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Anthony Allen 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 46%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
On speed, had enough in the tank for the minors (Bm65) this venue over this distance. Sound stats this venue. Can challenge again.
ILB
Honest race when 3rd last run around here. Shows good early pace. Putting up notable efforts this preparation. Good chance in this.
RP
String of consistent efforts of late; has won at this track; couldn't quite get the job done when 9-4 third in a handicap three weeks ago.
RSIS
Finished 3rd last start at this track. Likely to be well placed early. Looking sharp on the track since resuming from a break. Definite contender.