Shortest win price
Vintage Vibes (3)
1.75
Welcome to Eagle Farm for Sky Racing The Bruce, a Benchmark 70 handicap over 1200m on a Good 4 track under overcast skies. Punters looking at the early win market have Vintage Vibes sitting right at the top of the order, closely followed by Sort Cha Mess, Petite Palace, and Stiktodascrypt rounding out the leading quartet in the betting yarn.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Vintage Vibes comes in on a short back-up after a solid kick from a handy position to triumph at Doomben over this trip, though she carries a big weight rise here. Sort Cha Mess enters with a great win from the deep gate at Toowoomba and was not disgraced at his previous run in town, though he needs to run out 1200m from the outside barrier. Petite Palace resumes after a sixteen-week spell following a trial win, while Stiktodascrypt drops in grade after finishing just off the leading division when resuming on a heavy track.
Diving into further angles from the pack, the speed map has Sort Cha Mess holding down the leader's lane while runners like Super Quick and Stiktodascrypt map on pace. Further down the order, American Conquest caught the eye last start by posting the fastest overall finishing sectionals, adding an interesting narrative for punters dissecting the tail of the market in a very open contest.
Shortest win price
Vintage Vibes (3)
1.75
Most career wins
Elected
7-11-5 from 55 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Petite Palace · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Super Quick · Negative
Trainer SR
Thomas Dougall striking at just 9%
Vintage Vibes · Negative
Jockey Booking
Chelsea Baker current POT is 39% below Career Avg.
Elected · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Career
22: 5-4-3
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Warwick
3: 2-1-0
Track Doomben
3: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1015m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
8: 3-1-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (16-weeks). Trialled very well, but that was six weeks ago now. Good draw. Respect any market activity.
ILB
Resumes after a break. Couldn't stay in touch when 12th last time at Grafton but facing a weaker grade. Won a trial at Aquis Beaudesert on Sept 25th. Watch the betting.
RP
Towards the rear of 15 four months ago at Grafton in a Listed handicap; has managed five wins from 22 career runs; others more appealing despite this looking a little easier than last time.
RSIS
Back from a break. Didn't find the line when 12th last time at Grafton but up against a less competitive field. Gets the perfect draw. Keep safe.
Career
32: 6-8-5
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-2
Track Ipswich
3: 1-1-0
Track Gatton
2: 0-1-0
Track Dalby
6: 1-2-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
12: 3-1-3
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
27: 4-8-3
Going Soft
4: 2-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Thomas Dougall striking at just 9%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 33%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (42-days). Failed to threaten at Toowoomba at healthy odds. Since trialled at Toowoomba Inner 30 Oct. Prefer others.
ILB
Freshened for this. Was $26.00 and weakened to finish 9th last run at Toowoomba but can find a nice position from the draw. Should muster plenty of early toe. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Finished tailed off over 6½f at Toowoomba (handicap) 42 days ago; this looks a decent race so looks opposable.
RSIS
Back from a freshen up. Started 25/1 and didn't attack the line when 9th last start at Toowoomba but drawn nicely. Shows good early pace.
Career
10: 3-0-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-2
Second-up
3: 2-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-1
Track Gold Coast
2: 2-0-0
Track Ipswich
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Chelsea Baker current POT is 39% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 29% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 51% in L100 rides
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
AAP
On a short back-up. Gave solid kick from handy position to triumph at Doomben over this trip. Big weight rise, but hard to beat.
ILB
Flew home to win last time at Gold Coast but rising in grade. Should muster plenty of early speed. Been in the money each attempt this campaign. Large claim helps. Others preferred.
RP
Successful four times from 11 career runs and bids to pull off a hat-trick; gained narrow success in a handicap at Doomben a week ago; respected.
RSIS
Charged home to win last time at Gold Coast but competing at a higher class. Should muster plenty of early toe. Has not missed the money recently in 2 attempts.
Career
55: 7-11-5
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-2-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Bundaberg
1: 0-0-0
Track Nanango
1: 0-0-1
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1408m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1090m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
30: 4-4-2
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
14: 1-3-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 118%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Debi O'Toole in good form, out performing market 59%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Stanthorpe. Veteran needs it easier nowadays.
ILB
Started at $14.00 and ran 6th last time at Stanthorpe and competing in a higher grade. Prefer a return to something a lot easier.
RP
Creditable sixth at Stanthorpe over 5f (handicap) 21 days ago; a lot on his plate here and only limited appeal.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and finished 6th last start at Stanthorpe and up against a more competitive field.
Career
13: 4-0-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Rockhampton
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
5: 3-0-1
Distance 1050m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Jett Newman 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 239%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 28% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jett Newman in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 21%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
AAP
All honours in the small field at Toowoomba on a Heavy 8. Firmer deck here, and tougher race as well.
ILB
Picked up nicely to win last run at Toowoomba on a heavy track but matched against tougher rivals. Can go through the gears. The large claim from Jett Newman helps. Watch betting.
RP
Proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking a fifth career win); won a handicap by 1½l at Toowoomba last month; a likely player.
RSIS
Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Toowoomba but challenged by a tougher grade. Shows very good closing pace. Jett Newman provides some weight relief. Watch the betting.
Career
8: 3-3-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-1-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-1
Track Toowoomba
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1110m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 800m
3: 1-2-0
Distance 950m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-2-1
Going Soft
2: 1-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Great win from the deep gate at Toowoomba. Not disgraced at his previous run in town. Needs to run out 1200m from the outside gate.
ILB
Led throughout when winning by 3 1/4L last time at Toowoomba but up against stronger competition. Jockey Ashley Butler and trainer Pat W Webster are a combination worth following. Must respect.
RP
Did it nicely over 5½f at Toowoomba (handicap) three weeks ago; trainer going well a plus; could have a say.
RSIS
Went to the front and never looked back when winning by a margin of 3 1/4L last time at Toowoomba but racing in stronger company. Can win this.
Career
10: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Toowoomba
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
4: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-1-1
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-1
Going Good
4: 1-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 59%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 6.5kg more than LS
AAP
Just off leading division when resuming, but can forgive that on a H10. Better suited here down in grade. Can challenge with some luck.
ILB
Odds of $7.00 and didn't attack the line when 8th last start at this venue. Expected to rebound and competing at a lower level of competition. Strong competitor.
RP
Producing consistent form; fair effort when beaten 2l over 5f here (handicap) last month; a few rivals look in good form so hard to recommend.
RSIS
Odds of 6/1 and weakened to finish 8th last run around here. Happy to forgive that run and facing a weaker grade. Going up in weight. Tough competitor.
Career
22: 5-5-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-3-0
Second-up
5: 1-2-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Gatton
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1030m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
7: 3-2-1
Going Good
17: 5-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-2-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kept grinding away for the minors at Toowoomba second-up. Needs to lift her game in city class.
ILB
Placed 3rd last start at Toowoomba but challenged by more formidable competitors. Will be pushing for a forward position early. The large claim from Stacey Callow should help. Very unlikely.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten 3l) over 5f at Toowoomba (handicap) 21 days ago; has achieved five wins from 22 career runs.
RSIS
Honest race when 3rd last run at Toowoomba but taking on stronger competition. Has early pace and positions nicely. Large claim helps.
Career
17: 2-1-4
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-1-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Went home tamely in rain affected ground at Toowoomba at $7.50. Has struggled at this level previously.
ILB
Started at $7.50 and lacklustre showing when 6th last time at Toowoomba and challenged by a tougher grade. Does take a while to get into stride. Looks hopeful.
RP
No impression when sixth of nine at Toowoomba over 6½f (handicap) last month; a lot on his plate here and unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Odds of 13/2 and moderate showing when 6th last run at Toowoomba and facing formidable opponents. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
2: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 1-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 28% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Returns for 2nd campaign (17-weeks). Surprised the market with her 2nd start win. Given two decent trials. Market watch.
ILB
First run back from a break. Stormed home to win last start at Gold Coast but competing at a higher level of competition. Gets a reduction in weight. Too much luck needed to come into contention.
RP
Off the mark at the second time of asking (Gold Coast) when springing 100-1 surprise four months ago; running in a handicap for only the second time; prospects.
RSIS
Resuming from break. Finished with purpose when winning last start at Gold Coast but up against a higher level of opposition. Gets a reduction in weight.