Shortest win price
Hard Evidence (7)
3.90
Welcome to Eagle Farm for the Kiwa Construction Sciences Plate, a Class 3 contest over the 1815m journey on a Soft 5 track with overcast skies. Jump time is locked in for 1:07 pm AEDT. Looking at how punters are treating the win market, Hard Evidence holds down the shortest quote to start things off, closely followed by Rochedale Hero, Cantarito, and Hot Majesty making up the leading edge of betting.
Digging into the form behind those shorter prices reveals a compelling yarn. Hot Majesty lines up from barrier 6 for trainer T J Gollan and jockey Jett Newman, coming off a strong win at Ipswich over 1965m where all honours went the runner's way. With previous track efforts here looking solid and a helpful claim, another bold showing is on the cards. Meanwhile, Rochedale Hero steps out for Jack Bruce from barrier 7 with Taylor Marshall steering, carrying 58.5kg after a handy third at Doomben over 1600m. This gelding tackles 1815m for the very first time and appreciates dropping into an easier race.
Further down the market, Chris Waller supplies a few interesting angles with runners like Hard Evidence and Cantarito drawn in barriers 1 and 2 respectively. Hard Evidence gets the services of Ryan Maloney and looks to improve here after making some minor headway resuming over 1500m at this track on a Soft 7, noting a past victory second-up. Looking at the early maps, speed groups see Rochedale Hero setting terms as the sole leader, while runners like Data Leak, Hot Majesty, and Peccavi push forward on-pace to keep things honest.
Shortest win price
Hard Evidence (7)
3.90
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Data Leak · Positive
Primed
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
He'Sgotthesay · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 16% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Majesty · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Ready For The Trip · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
AAP
Fresh. Racing ok in lower grade, but poorly treated here under the race conditions. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd beaten by close to 9L last start at Kilcoy but racing in stronger company. Stacey Callow provides some weight relief.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 3rd last run at Kilcoy but facing formidable competition. Large claim helps.
Career
27: 3-6-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Toowoomba
19: 3-4-4
Track Gatton
2: 0-1-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-3
Distance 1240m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
6: 1-2-0
Going Good
18: 1-3-4
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Unable to make an impression at Toowoomba. Previous run here was fair. Hard fit, one for multiples.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Was $2.70 and disappointing effort when 4th last time at Toowoomba and testing ability against stronger contenders. Has plenty of early speed. Simply cannot have today.
RP
A few throw outs since his success in a handicap at Toowoomba four months ago; fourth beaten 7l in a handicap at Toowoomba last Saturday; this is competitive and not one to rely on.
RSIS
On a short back up. Started at 7/4 and clearly outclassed when 4th last start at Toowoomba and up against tougher competition. Shows good early pace.
Career
16: 3-3-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
3: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-2-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 16% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Battled home okay in choppy conditions this course 2nd-up. Ready to peak now, and capable of making an impact.
ILB
Was $11.00 and moved through the field into 5th last start at this venue. Expected to settle towards the rear. Can't have on what it has been showing.
RP
Has been fairly consistent lately; finished fifth two weeks ago albeit only beaten 3l in a handicap; shown he can win fairly recently and can make a bold bid.
RSIS
Started 10/1 and ran on into 5th last time around here. Might be ridden for luck.
Career
23: 3-6-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-3
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1965m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1810m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
16: 2-3-3
Going Soft
7: 1-3-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jett Newman 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
All honours in the small field at Ipswich. Previous two runs this track were solid. Good claim. Primed to give another strong account.
ILB
Controlled the pace when winning by a margin of 1 1/4L last run at Ipswich but up against a higher level of opposition. The large claim from Jett Newman helps. Expect support.
RP
Has run well here recently; won by just over 1l over 1m2f at Ipswich (conditions race) last month; despite that Ipswich success, others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Controlled the pace when winning by 1 1/4L last start at Ipswich but up against a more competitive field. The large claim from Jett Newman should help. Great chance.
Career
20: 3-5-2
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-3-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
3: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-1-0
Track Eagle Farm
11: 3-3-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-2-1
Going Good
11: 2-3-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Daniel Moor 30% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Daniel Moor in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 30%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Rider found a forward spot this course but he put in a very lacklustre finish. Hard horse to follow with confidence.
ILB
Jumped at $8.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last time here. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 last month in a handicap; specialist here with three wins; respected as he finished second five weeks ago.
RSIS
Started 7/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last start here.
Career
9: 2-2-3
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-1
Track Ipswich
3: 2-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-1-2
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 30%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS
AAP
Handy gelding racing well, and will appreciate this easier race. Tackling 1815m for the 1st time. Respect.
ILB
Competitive effort when 3rd last run at Doomben but rising in weight. Should come to hand quickly. Been in the money 5 from 5 attempts this campaign. Has strong claims.
RP
String of consistent efforts of late; creditable third in a handicap at Doomben last month; trainer is ticking along nicely; should figure as shown he can get his head in front.
RSIS
Tidy effort when 3rd last run at Doomben but carrying more weight than last time. Should muster plenty of early pace. Can lift.
Career
7: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1408m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Well back and made some minor headway this course resuming. Better conditioned now, and has won 2nd-up. Improver.
ILB
Jumped at $8.00 and came in 6th last start around here but has drawn to do little work. Jockey Ryan Maloney is currently in strong form for this stable. Place claims.
RP
Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (5l) here over 7½f (handicap) last month when just behind He'sgotthesay; he can be taken on.
RSIS
Was 7/1 and ran 6th last run around here but can save some energy from the draw. Ryan Maloney usually performs well for this stable.
Career
22: 2-4-5
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Doomben
2: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
3: 1-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1550m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1666m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1690m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 2-1-2
Going Good
12: 0-2-3
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Placed Hcp (C2) at Doomben 5 Oct, then failed to threaten in heavy ground this track. Deep into her campaign, worth another chance.
ILB
Started at $7.50 and folded up in the straight when 11th last run at this track on a heavy track. Capable of a strong comeback. Producing consistent results this campaign. Expect a forward showing.
RP
Finished 11th of 12 over 1m here (handicap) last month; this is competitive and one to tread carefully with.
RSIS
Started 13/2 and tailed off to finish 11th last run around here on a heavy track. Has the talent to rebound quickly and taking on easier opposition. Can win.
Career
11: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1660m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 2-1-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 7% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Showed plenty of fight to secure victory this track. Races well this trip. Likes the sting out however, which she won't get here.
ILB
Rocketed home when winning last start here. Place chance.
RP
Landed a narrow success in a handicap last month; easy to see her making an impression.
RSIS
Charged home to win last start here.