Shortest win price
Quality Miss (9)
2.75
Welcome to Gatton where the weather is raining and the track is rated a Soft6 for the running of the Save The Date Sunday 1St November – Melbourne Cup Calcutta Draw Falvey’s Hotel Gatton over 2000m. This Benchmark 58 handicap has brought together a fascinating field of stayers, with the win market currently headed by Papal Miss leading the line. Following closely at the head of betting are Quality Miss, Victory Command, and Headline Legend rounding out the main chances in early calculations for this race.
Looking into the form behind those shorter prices, Papal Miss comes into this assignment from the Vishan Venkaya stable with Perrie Carter in the saddle from barrier one, bringing a recent placing at the Gold Coast Poly over 2000m and a trial placing at Deagon. Quality Miss is prepared by Diane Murphy and will be ridden by Micheal Hellyer from barrier two, arriving fresh off a fighting win over this exact course and distance. Victory Command is prepared by Jesse Townsend, has William Galloway aboard from barrier 7, and brings strong runner-up finishes at the Gold Coast and Dalby over similar trips, refusing to shirk the task on recent outings.
Further down the order, other runners add plenty of intrigue to the yarn. Quality Miss maps as the leader from the inside draw, while runners like Victory Command and Headline Legend aim to settle midfield with early speed on this circuit. Papal Miss looks deep into her current campaign but handles a wet track well enough to make her presence felt, while a backmarker like Think I'm Irish carries the fastest overall finishing sectionals from the previous start if the race gets completely chaotic up front.
Shortest win price
Quality Miss (9)
2.75
Most career wins
Papal Miss
7-5-12 from 96 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Victory Command · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Devil Rider · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -53% POT in their L100 Races
Headline Legend · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Taradale · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Career
32: 4-6-3
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
9: 3-1-0
Track Sunshine Coast Poly Track
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1815m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2206m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
17: 4-4-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 0-1-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Refused to shirk task in (Bm60) at Gold Coast. Among the dangers again.
ILB
Rattled home nicely into 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at Gold Coast. The large claim from William Galloway helps. Well respected contender.
RP
Running consistently; went down by half a length over 1m1f at Gold Coast (handicap) just ahead of Larusso two weeks ago; respected as recent performance was encouraging.
RSIS
Did well to run 2nd beaten by 1/2L last time at Gold Coast. The large claim from William Galloway should help. Will be competitive.
Career
12: 2-0-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
4: 1-0-2
Track Warwick
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1640m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
8: 1-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Warwick Hcp (C3) placegetter 10 Sep. Big weight took its toll at Gold Coast. First real test of stamina here. Well placed to make an impact here.
ILB
At $6.50 came in 5th last run at Gold Coast. Likely to be well placed early.
RP
String of creditable efforts to his name of late and grade looks suitable; fair effort (beaten 2l) over 1m1f at Gold Coast (handicap) two weeks ago when just behind Victory Command; the trainer is going well; assuming he steps up from most recent effort then is of interest; also engaged in race 6 at Sunshine Coast.
RSIS
Started 11/2 and finished 5th last start at Gold Coast. Has plenty of early pace.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jai Williams in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 89%
AAP
Fair way from the winner but battled home into third at Sunshine Coast. Sound stats this venue. Fit from racing, can challenge again.
ILB
Solid run on the pace before weakening to finish 3rd beaten by just over 5 1/2L last start at Sunshine Coast.
RSIS
Good result placing 3rd beaten by over 5 1/2L last time at Sunshine Coast.
Career
24: 3-0-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 1-0-0
Track Narrandera
1: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -53% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Went home tamely this venue over today's trip at $151. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
At $151.00 didn't threaten when 8th last run around here. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Struggling this preparation with no placings from 8 starts. Rough chance.
RP
Finished eighth, beaten just over 4l by Quality Miss 15 days ago upped to this trip; has been on the scene in the recent past and ought to be on the premises.
RSIS
At 150/1 lost ground in the run home when 8th last run at this track. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned.
Career
28: 4-3-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Toowoomba
2: 0-1-0
Track Gatton
7: 2-0-1
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
11: 2-1-1
Going Good
22: 2-2-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Bailie Baker 36% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 260%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Key Jockey
Positive
Bailie Baker winning at 26% POT in last 100 rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Started $12 when safely held in Restricted 58 company this course over this trip. At best, a place hope.
ILB
Jumped at $12.00 and folded up in the straight when 9th last run at this track. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Ninth of 12 upped to this trip 15 days ago; has won previously at this course; useful at this level; goes on the shortlist as he clearly knows how to get his head in front.
RSIS
Was 11/1 and looked outclassed when 9th last run at this track. Stands out as good value.
Career
17: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Beaudesert
1: 1-0-0
Track Ipswich
5: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
3: 0-0-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. Long time since last saluted. Settled midfield and never a serious challenger at Sunshine Coast. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Started $26.00 and tailed off to finish 9th last start at Sunshine Coast. Watch betting.
RP
Form has an up and down look to it and achieved just the one win; was held in ninth last Friday (Sunshine Coast) upped to 1m3f; this looks a decent race so others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. At 25/1 faded to finish 9th last run at Sunshine Coast.
Career
96: 7-5-12
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
4: 1-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
14: 1-0-2
Distance 2180m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 2500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
32: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
7: 1-1-1
Going Soft
42: 2-1-5
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 245%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 49%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 36% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
In the minor spoils but still well held at Gold Coast Poly for new stable. Deep into her campaign, can make her presence felt.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last time at Gold Coast Poly and will appreciate a good alley. Perrie Carter and Vishan Venkaya are usually competitive together. Expect a forward showing.
RP
Not disgraced in third on debut for this handler at Gold Coast last Wednesday; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Kept chasing when 3rd beaten by 3 3/4L last time at Gold Coast Poly and drawn well. Perrie Carter and Vishan Venkaya are consistently competitive when paired. Definitely worth considering.
Rating · IRD
20
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
AAP
Well back and never sighted at Ipswich as a despised outsider. Deep into his campaign, could get into the placings.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Not up to standard when 4th last run at Ipswich but competing in an easier class. Goes down in weight.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Looked flat when 4th last start at Ipswich but up against weaker rivals. Gets some weight taken off.
Career
34: 2-7-3
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-2-0
Second-up
5: 0-2-0
Third-up
5: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 1-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
3: 1-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-2-0
Going Soft
12: 1-3-1
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 94%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 52% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
AAP
Showed plenty of fight to secure victory this track over this trip. Drawn to get an economic trail. Will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Flew home to win last run at the track and can find a nice position from the draw. Expecting to settle positively. Forward showing expected.
RP
Got home in front by half a length beating Devil Rider and Headline Legend two weeks ago; she can be taken on despite that win at Gatton.
RSIS
Dashed home to win last run at this track and drawn nicely. Should muster plenty of early toe. Jockey Micheal Hellyer and trainer Diane Murphy enjoy a strong success rate. Strong claims in this.
Rating · IRD
20
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
AAP
Never in the call at Grafton. Usually gets back. Coming back in distance. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Looked flat when 5th last start at Ipswich but challenged by weaker competitors. Gets some weight taken off.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Not up to standard when 5th last run at Ipswich but taking on easier opposition. Dropping weight.
Career
31: 2-4-7
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
2: 0-0-1
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-1
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
5: 0-1-1
Going Good
14: 2-0-4
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
9: 0-1-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Last win was 1 Jan. Game effort at Tabulam. This looks stronger.
ILB
Right in the mix last time at Tabulam and dropping weight. Should get going late. Has some claims.
RP
Finished ahead of two of these rivals over 1m½f at Tabulam (handicap) 13 days ago when not beaten far; infrequent winner.
RSIS
Right up there last run at Tabulam and goes down in weight. Will be motoring home late. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
33: 1-3-4
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Armidale
3: 0-1-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
7: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1720m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
11: 0-1-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Ben Robinson striking at just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Found it tough since shaking her maiden. Ordinary performance in small field at Kilcoy. First time around Gatton. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Jumped at $61.00 and finished 4th last time at Kilcoy. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Struggling this campaign with no placings from 10 starts. Better to look elsewhere.
RP
Held in fourth at Kilcoy over 1m1½f (handicap) last week; you have to go back a fair way to find her only win; this looks a decent race so can be taken on.
RSIS
Odds of 60/1 and ran 4th last start at Kilcoy. Shows good early pace. Struggling in recent runs.
Career
54: 1-4-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
5: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
12: 1-3-0
Distance 1615m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2215m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
17: 0-2-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Found it tough since shaking his maiden. Unable to make an impression at Sunshine Coast. Switching to 2000m. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Started at $91.00 and made up ground when 4th last time at Sunshine Coast. Others much better.
RP
This is his level; finished fourth, beaten a fair way over 1m3f at Sunshine Coast (handicap) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Odds of 90/1 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last start at Sunshine Coast.