Shortest win price
Courting (9)
1.85
Welcome to Horsham for the Bet365 Position Payout Mdn Plate over the 2100m journey. The track is rated a Good 4 under fine weather conditions, and punters are looking forward to sizing up this maiden field. Looking at the early win market order, Courting sits right at the top of calculations, followed closely by Little Ally Bama, Vadar, and Empress Of China filling out the next lines of the betting.
Taking a look under the hood at the form for some of our market fancies, Courting brings a light preparation with three starts yielding two placings, including a distant third in a 3yo+ Mdn Plate over 2016m at Ballarat last time out, suggesting the staying trip should suit. Little Ally Bama is another lightly raced sort showing promise, coming off a distant third at Geelong over 1765m where she kept on well and recorded the fastest overall finishing sectionals of the race. Up in distance here, she shapes as a genuine player if the tempo suits. Vadar is building fitness after being sent out long odds at Cranbourne and tackling a stamina test, while Empress Of China resumes after a plain effort at Kilmore and faces her first real test over a staying trip.
Deeper into the field, we find runners like Son Of Vadamos and Taajwar trying to break through, while Helichrysum maps to take up the early running from barrier nine. With speed maps showing Helichrysum trying to dictate upfront and backmarkers like Little Ally Bama looking to swoop late, this 2100m contest sets up an intriguing tactical battle for punters dissecting the yarn.
Shortest win price
Courting (9)
1.85
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Sitar · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Son Of Vadamos · Positive
Hot Trainer
Raharna McDonald in good form, out performing market 39%
Taajwar · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Vadar · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Career
16: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
6: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1512m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
6: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 68%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 69% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
AAP
Failed to flatter at Kyneton last time out. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Jumped at $101.00 and came in 9th last run at Kyneton but has a nice advantage with a good gate. Yet to break through after 16 starts. Prefer to watch.
RP
Beaten 9l into ninth over 1m1f at Kyneton (maiden) last Thursday; still searching for his first win after 16 attempts; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and ran 9th last time at Kyneton but has the ideal stall. Trying to win after 16 starts.
Career
39: 0-4-5
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Oakbank
1: 0-0-0
Track Halidon
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
7: 0-1-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
11: 0-0-2
Distance 2200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
23: 0-3-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
14: 0-1-3
Hot Trainer
Positive
Raharna McDonald in good form, out performing market 39%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Failed to threaten at Swan Hill following a market drift. Long time a maiden and hard to trust.
ILB
Was $51.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last start at Swan Hill but returning to more ground. Will need to lift.
RP
Seventh beaten 10l over 1m at Swan Hill (maiden) dropped back in distance last month; losing run totals 39; others more persuasive.
RSIS
At 50/1 faded away to finish 7th last run at Swan Hill but back to a longer distance.
Career
21: 0-1-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
2: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 906m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
7: 0-0-1
Going Good
9: 0-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Started $15 when safely held in Maiden company at Mt Gambier. First time around Horsham. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Was $15.00 and weakened to finish 6th last time at Mount Gambier but stepping up in trip. Will need to find a few more lengths.
RP
Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (4½l) at Mt Gambier over 7½f (maiden) 11 days ago; has arguably shown improved form the last twice but has run 21 times without getting off the mark; is passed over.
RSIS
Started 14/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at Mount Gambier but going up in trip.
Career
9: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1611m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 255%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jett Stanley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 62%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Not Trustworthy
Negative
May be competing at this level for some time
AAP
Sent out $201 when never got into the race at Cranbourne off extended spell. Building fitness. Stamina on trial here. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Was $201.00 and had difficulty when 8th last start at Cranbourne but racing over extra ground. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Drawn nicely. Potential to run into a place.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 5l, finishing eighth of ten over 7f at Cranbourne (maiden) last month; should be in the mix as has been on the scene in the recent past.
RSIS
Started 200/1 and average effort when 8th last time at Cranbourne but has a good draw. Likely to get back. Facing a rise in trip.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
4: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 70%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 27% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
AAP
Unplaced in all 8 runs to date. Little impact to date. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and unsatisfactory performance when 8th last run at Swan Hill but returning to an increased distance. Yet to place in 8 starts. Could not recommend.
RP
Lightly raced but needs to improve on balance of recent form; close up behind Son Of Vadamos when eighth at Swan Hill over 1m (maiden) on her debut for this trainer four weeks ago; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and below expectations when 8th last start at Swan Hill but back to a rise in trip. Unplaced in career.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1107m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 46%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Limited
Negative
Yet to break through after 8 starts
AAP
Fresh. Started $11 when safely held in Maiden company at Kilmore second-up. First real test of stamina here. All the better, can make her presence felt with even luck.
ILB
At $11.00 mediocre attempt when 9th last time at Kilmore. Needs to improve.
RP
Not disgraced when ninth of 13 over 1m at Kilmore (maiden) five weeks ago; strong claims.
RSIS
Was 10/1 and appeared lacklustre when 9th last start at Kilmore.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jade Smith current POT is 50% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Paul Krelle striking at just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 51% in L100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
AAP
Freshened. Form to date uninspiring. Sent out $101 when battled home to finish 6th at Donald. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Jumped at $101.00 and finished 6th last time at Donald. Won't be far away during the run. Unplaced in career. The large claim from Jade Smith helps. Cannot be tipped.
RP
Beaten a fair way when sixth over 1m at Donald (maiden) 36 days ago; interesting.
RSIS
Odds of 100/1 and finished 6th last start at Donald. Has early pace and positions nicely. Hasn't placed in 8 starts. The large claim from Jade Smith helps.
Career
8: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1479m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went close at Echuca 19 Sep. Failed to threaten at Ballarat. Improvement on the cards here.
ILB
Was well beaten when 9th last start at Ballarat.
RP
Close up behind Courting when ninth at Ballarat over 1m2f (maiden) two weeks ago; signs of improvement on last two runs; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Tailed off to finish 9th last time at Ballarat.
Career
3: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2016m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Posted some decent efforts from three appearances. No match but kept on for a distant third in the 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Ballarat latest outing. Profiles well.
ILB
Did well to run 3rd beaten by 5 1/2L last start at Ballarat and promising career start. Producing consistent results this preparation. Has ability that supersedes its rivals.
RP
6l third over 1m2f at Ballarat (maiden) two weeks ago; not had much racing - fourth outing here; capable of making an impact.
RSIS
Rattled home nicely into 3rd beaten by 5 1/2L last start at Ballarat and promising career start. Putting up notable efforts since coming back from a break. This looks the bet of the day.
Career
3: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1765m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
No match but kept on for a distant third in the 3yo+ Mdn at Geelong last start. Up in distance and hope if speed on. Big show.
ILB
Nice effort to run into 3rd last start at Geelong and showing improvement in recent outings. Expected to be flashing home. Can figure in the finish.
RP
Just her fourth outing so still early days; comfortably beaten finishing third (7l) over 1m1f at Geelong (maiden) last week.
RSIS
Did well to finish 3rd last time at Geelong and form has been improving over recent runs. Should get going late. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.