Shortest win price
Bazzar (2)
2.25
Horsham kicks off with the L & H Electrical benchmark 62 handicap over 1100 metres in fine conditions on a Good 4 track at 3:55 pm AEDT. Bazzar heads the market, with Tower Bridge and Edges Diamond the next shortest-priced runners. Marilyn's Edge and What A Ripper complete the early movers in the win market, while Second Fix and Barclaps sit out wider. The race shapes as a genuine contest between early runners and those with finishing pace, with Marilyn's Edge and Makarim likely to make the running while Tower Bridge, Thunder Park and What A Ripper press hard from the onpace lane.
Bazzar lines up resuming after 12 weeks for Tom Dabernig and Linda Meech, a pairing familiar enough with first-up chances. The form line reads modest — three career starts for one win and two placings — but the comment suggests there is improvement to chase fresh in this field. Last campaign brought a placing at Ballarat when first-up, which carries weight. Tower Bridge, rated 87 by the IRD, has early speed and an advantage on this circuit according to the data, though recent form at Cranbourne and Sale (both eighth placings) tells a hard-luck story. The jockey-trainer combo is losing ground in their last 100 races, a pattern that warrants caution. Edges Diamond, also rated 82, lines up for John Allen and Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell after a run at Hamilton over the same trip without threatening. The stable is struggling with a 9 per cent strike rate, which suggests a minor role here.
Marilyn's Edge, rated 89 and the highest-rated runner in the field, presents an angle worth exploring. Jett Stanley is 62 per cent above market expected in his last 100 rides and the jockey's recent record sits 29 per cent better than career average. A narrow loss at Moe last start and a minor placing at Mildura shape a form line suited to this grade. Drawing barrier 11 from a leader's map position is a natural fit. What A Ripper for Ben, Will & Jd Hayes looks well in at the weights and that stable is running at 12 per cent profit on turnover in their last 100 runners — a telling edge in a tight race like this. The recent form (a win at four starts) is short on detail but the map position suits Horsham and sits 31 per cent above market expectations.
Shortest win price
Bazzar (2)
2.25
Most career wins
Thunder Park
6-8-6 from 46 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Bazzar · Positive
Improved L/S
Improved again last start
Second Fix · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 64% lower than Career Avg.
Tower Bridge · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Edges Diamond · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Career
12: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Track Sale
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
6: 0-2-2
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-2-2
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
AAP
Secured third in a staggered finish at Warrnambool. Shapes as a major player.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by over 6L last start at Warrnambool. Showing great form since coming back from a spell.
RP
No impression when third of seven over 5f at Warrnambool (handicap) two weeks ago; has been fairly consistent of late; has shown signs of promise here and there and could go well.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the placings when 3rd last time at Warrnambool on a heavy surface. In top form since resuming from a break.
Career
7: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-2
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 1-0-0
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
3: 1-1-1
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (12-weeks). Placed at Ballarat first-up last campaign. Can make his presence felt fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Back after a spell. In the money when 3rd last run at Warrnambool on a heavy surface. Solid claims.
RP
Third in Warrnambool handicap, 10l off winner in July; poor effort last time out a possible blip.
RSIS
Fresh from a break. Finished 3rd last time at Warrnambool. Can take this out.
Career
19: 3-3-3
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
5: 1-2-2
Track Morphettville
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
8: 1-3-2
Distance 1300m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 3-3-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 64% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 76% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (28-weeks). Close in Benchmark 66 company at Warrnambool first-up last campaign. One for exotics fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up after a break of 28 weeks. Odds of $9.00 and didn't attack the line when 8th last start at Stawell and back to a shorter trip. Appears tested.
RP
Finished last of eight over 1m at Stawell (handicap) six months ago; layoff to overcome; starts out for new yard; he can be taken on as this looks a fair heat.
RSIS
Fresh after a 28 week break. Started 8/1 and didn't threaten when 8th last start at Stawell and back to a shorter distance. First start for a new trainer.
Career
8: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 1-0-0
Track Sale
2: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1230m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $9 when unable to threaten at Cranbourne. Warrants attention.
ILB
Started $9.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Cranbourne. Interesting gear change of ear muffs on first time. Expect a forward showing.
RP
Finished last of eight over 4½f at Cranbourne (handicap) three weeks ago; this is his level; his best form stacks up so looks like a player.
RSIS
Started at 8/1 and weakened to finish 8th last time at Cranbourne. Interesting gear change of hood on first time. One of the punters top hopes.
Career
11: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 2-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
2: 1-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
Last start this trip reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Hamilton. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
On a quick back up. Started at $71.00 and closed off nicely when 5th last run at Hamilton but carrying more weight than last time. John Allen is a plus. Not dismissing.
RP
Finished fifth beaten just under 3l at Hamilton last week; hard to dismiss as latest run was an encouraging one.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Odds of 70/1 and pushed past some when 5th last start at Hamilton but hoping that the added weight won't hurt. John Allen is a bonus.
Career
23: 4-5-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-2-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 1-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
10: 2-2-1
Distance 1008m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
18: 3-5-1
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jett Stanley 62% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kept on for the minor spoils in skinny line-up at Mildura. Commands plenty of attention.
ILB
Rattled home nicely into 3rd beaten by 3/4L last run at Mildura. Very competitive this preparation. The wide draw shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Strong claims.
RP
Third but beaten just less than a length when 11-8 at Mildura over 5f (handicap) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Caught the eye when 3rd last start at Mildura. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide draw. Exhibiting good form since returning from a break. Definitely worth considering.
Career
7: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 57%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Made late and solid headway into the placings at Ballarat. Winner at track and distance. All the better, has some claims.
ILB
Honest race when 3rd last run at Ballarat. Should be rolling forward early from the wide alley. Could not recommend in this.
RP
Ran well enough to finish third at 18-1 over 5f at Ballarat (handicap) last week; likes this combination of C&D.
RSIS
Competitive effort when 3rd last time at Ballarat. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw.
Career
46: 6-8-6
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
8: 0-5-2
Second-up
7: 1-0-3
Third-up
6: 2-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 2-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Stawell
3: 0-0-3
Track Murtoa
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
16: 1-4-2
Distance 1102m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1130m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
33: 4-5-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
11: 2-2-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 74% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse 108% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse winning at 77% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ex S V Gebert. Prominent but got the staggers and surrendered quickly at Geelong. Remote place hope at best.
ILB
Was $21.00 and tailed off to finish 12th last time at Geelong. Coming to a new trainer. Running with confidence this preparation. Prefer a race with softer competition.
RP
C&D has proven suitable before; form lately has been a mixed bag; finished last of 12 over 6½f at Geelong (handicap) last month; first start for new trainer; others are preferred in what appears to be a competitive contest.
RSIS
Started 20/1 and folded up in the straight when 12th last start at Geelong. First appearance for a new trainer. Been in the money on multiple occasions lately.
Career
3: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
Failed to threaten on a soft deck at Bendigo over longer test as a market drifter. Speedy. Switching to 1100m. Can show more here.
ILB
Was $6.50 and well beaten when 10th last run at Bendigo. Likely to bounce back and promising career start. Tongue tie go on for the first time. Must be considered here.
RP
Last of ten over 7f at Bendigo (handicap) 14 days ago; lightly raced (this just his fourth race); leading contender if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.
RSIS
Odds of 11/2 and was well beaten when 10th last start at Bendigo. Can show a better performance this time and good career start. Down in trip. Good chance of taking this out.
Career
46: 4-9-4
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
8: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
22: 3-5-2
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
33: 3-4-4
Going Heavy
5: 1-1-0
Going Soft
8: 0-4-0
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 39%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Long winning drought. Failed to flatter at Mildura. New to Horsham. Distant place hope only.
ILB
Started at $12.00 and performed below standard when 9th last time at Mildura but can find a nice position from the draw. Finishes off strongly. Forward showing expected.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 at Mildura over 6f (handicap) 12 days ago; facing a testing assignment and hard to recommend.
RSIS
Was 11/1 and below expectations when 9th last time at Mildura but gets a favourable stall. Will be hitting the line strongly. Win will not surprise.
Career
11: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Corowa
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1103m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
5: 1-1-1
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 27% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kept finding the line without threatening at Kyneton second-up. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Odds of $18.00 and faded away to finish 7th last time at Kyneton but has a nice advantage with a good barrier. Gets some weight relief. Very unlikely to shake these.
RP
Likes this combination of C&D; creditable seventh at Kyneton last Thursday; not been able to get his head in front lately so hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Odds of 17/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at Kyneton but drawn well. Dropping weight.
Career
14: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
4: 0-0-1
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 910m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1012m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 33% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Kate Walters 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 351 day break (> 300 days)
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (50-weeks). Hasn't done much since breaking his maiden. New to Horsham. Happy to watch off the long layoff.
ILB
Resuming from a 50 week spell. Started at $9.00 and weakened under pressure when 10th last time at Mortlake and facing a stronger class. Will struggle to compete in this race.
RP
Was tailed off at Mortlake over 6½f (handicap) a year ago; just the one victory on his CV and generally been out of sorts of late; returns from an absence here; others have more pressing claims given this looks a decent race.
RSIS
Resuming after a 50 week break. Odds of 8/1 and faded away to finish 10th last run at Mortlake and competing in a more challenging class.