Shortest win price
Lonhy's Fabre (2)
2.90
Welcome to Mackay for the Book For Christmas Meeting Sat 12Th Dec Benchmark 55 over 1200m on a Soft5 track under overcast skies, with a 4:54 pm AEDT jump. Looking at the early win market order, punters are lining up to assess a tricky field, with Lonhy's Fabre currently heading calculations. Following closely in the market order come Anthropology, Aloysius, and Bonnie Bouquet, setting up an intriguing betting race for the punters looking for a late afternoon yarn.
Taking a closer look at the form lines for those prominent in the market, Lonhy's Fabre jumps from barrier eight for trainer Ricky Vale with Raul Silvera Olivera in the saddle, carrying 60.5kg. This runner has been progressing nicely this preparation, coming off solid minor placings at Rockhampton and Mackay, and sectionals suggest it goes hard early as a noted leader. Meanwhile, Anthropology starts from barrier three for trainer Kevin Miller and jockey Nikki Olzard, arriving here on the back of a tough win at Eidsvold over this exact 1200m trip. Bonnie Bouquet is another runner showing solid recent form, winning two of its last three including a gritty victory at Cloncurry over the distance.
Examining the speed map and further angles across the pack, Lonhy's Fabre and Anthropology share the leader tag and should look to press forward early from their respective gates. Aloysius comes in from barrier one for trainer K N Smyth and jockey Warwick Satherley following a let-up, while runners further down the market like Boom Crusher represent backmarker value with Anthony Allen taking the reins. It shapes as a fascinating contest where early speed and track position will likely dictate the ultimate destination of the prize.
Shortest win price
Lonhy's Fabre (2)
2.90
Most career wins
Gotta Hero
4-2-4 from 24 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Lonhy's Fabre · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Aloysius · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Bonnie Bouquet · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 106%
Arancia · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Rating · IRD
20
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
On a quick back-up. Won a 1200m Benchmark 55 at Rockhampton two back. On pace but found little at the business end at Rockhampton. Among the dangers.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Odds of $5.50 and gave ground late when 4th last time at Rockhampton. In top form this campaign.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Started at 9/2 and overrun towards the finish when 4th last time at Rockhampton. Has run into the money multiple times recently.
Career
6: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Mackay
3: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-1-1
Track Rockhampton
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 1-2-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
At the helm, outpointed late but slogged away for the minor spoils (Bm55) at Rockhampton when second-up. Progressing well this prep and has his hoof on the till. Can lead or take a sit. Sharper now, commands attention despite the big load.
ILB
Faded in the late stages of the race when 3rd last time at Rockhampton. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this preparation. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Lightly raced and normally pretty consistent; turned in a solid effort in defeat three weeks ago, when third at Rockhampton; chance.
RSIS
Ran a solid race on the pace before weakening to finish 3rd beaten by 2L last time at Rockhampton. In the top three at every start recently. No surprise to see solid support in the betting.
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Backmarker
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (76-days). Just missed at Longreach 25 Jul. Unable to make an impression at Muttaburra. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Back after a break. Jumped at $6.50 and sub-standard effort when 6th last run at Muttaburra. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
RP
Has not been firing consistently; held when sixth beaten 13l over 7f at Muttaburra (handicap) in August; others more likely as doesn't have a good record when fresh.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Started at 11/2 and subpar when 6th last time at Muttaburra. Expected to settle towards the rear.
Career
11: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Rockhampton
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2016m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Out Of Form
Negative
Needs to try and find some form
AAP
Let-up (59-days). Hasn't done much since breaking his maiden. Failed to threaten at Rockhampton for new stable under sustained support. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Freshened for this. Started at $18.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last time at Rockhampton but will appreciate a good draw. Could feature here.
RP
Generally struggled of late; beaten a long way at Rockhampton over 7f (handicap) on his first start for this trainer two months ago; this line-up contains some strong opposition so others more appealing.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Started at 17/1 and tailed off to finish 10th last time at Rockhampton but gets the perfect draw.
Career
10: 2-0-4
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Cloncurry
1: 1-0-0
Track Ewan
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 2-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-0-3
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 106%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Form solid winning two of last three. Responded well from back half to get the prize at Cloncurry over today's trip. Hard fit, warrants attention.
ILB
Rocketed home when winning last time at Cloncurry and hard to fault at this distance. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Gained narrow success in a handicap at Cloncurry 14 days ago; every chance.
RSIS
Ran home strongly to win last run at Cloncurry and will be well suited at the distance. Watch the betting.
Career
11: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Townsville
4: 1-0-0
Track Bowen
3: 0-0-1
Track Prairie
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
4: 2-0-1
Going Good
8: 0-1-2
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 1-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 33%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Won a 1200m Benchmark 55 at Prairie two back. Ordinary performance in small field at Bowen. Back in easier class. Respect on previous sound form.
ILB
Was $8.00 and moderate showing when 5th last start at Bowen but proven performer at this distance in the past. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Outside chance.
RP
Beaten 7l at Bowen 13 days ago in a conditions race; meeting some horses in good form and others more likely.
RSIS
Started 7/1 and mediocre display when 5th last run at Bowen but hard to fault at this trip. Has the pace to overcome the wide draw.
Career
9: 2-3-2
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-1-0
Track Townsville
2: 0-0-0
Track Gladstone
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 2-1-0
Going Unknown
3: 1-0-2
Going Good
5: 1-3-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 28 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Quickened from turn and kept finding at Twin Hills. Harder test now.
ILB
Secured a close victory last run at Twin Hills. Maintaining a perfect record the last 2 starts. Have to look elsewhere.
RP
Scored narrowly in a handicap at Twin Hills last month; has shown some recent improvement and goes for a hat-trick today; some claims.
RSIS
Managed to come out on top by the slightest of margins last start at Twin Hills. Undefeated last 2 starts.
Career
24: 4-2-4
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Rockhampton
11: 1-0-1
Track Yeppoon
2: 0-1-1
Track Emerald
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
5: 2-0-1
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-2
Distance 850m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 1-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 18% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 52%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 45% in L100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Solid rally into the placings at Emerald over this distance. This looks stronger.
ILB
Finished 3rd last time at Emerald and suited by the weight drop. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Tom Orr is a bonus. Can surprise at a nice price.
RP
Was on the premises (third, beaten 2l) at Emerald two weeks ago; has to be respected.
RSIS
Finished 3rd last start at Emerald and goes down in weight. Good to see Tom Orr is jumping on. Will be pushing for a forward position early.
Career
9: 2-3-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Eidsvold
1: 1-0-0
Track Mackay
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-2
Going Soft
3: 0-2-0
Going Unknown
2: 2-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 56%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 32%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
All honours in the small field at Eidsvold over this trip. Harder now but sure to have supporters.
ILB
Was first to greet the judge when winning by 1L last time at Eidsvold. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Will show up at the business end.
RP
Won a handicap by 1l at Eidsvold three weeks ago; Kevin Miller's runners are going great guns at the moment; not hard to turn elsewhere despite that win at Eidsvold.
RSIS
Handy enough when winning by 1L last run at Eidsvold. Nikki Olzard and Kevin Miller work well together. Will be positive in the run early. Strong competitor.
Career
46: 3-11-5
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Mackay
9: 1-3-1
Track CurrentTrack
9: 1-3-1
Track Townsville
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1170m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
25: 1-7-2
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
11: 2-1-2
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Game effort at Bowen over this journey. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 2nd last time at Bowen and gets a reduction in weight. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. Chances are slim.
RP
Went close when runner-up (Bowen) 13 days ago; has won at this course; not been able to get her head in front lately so there are better alternatives here.
RSIS
Tidy effort when 2nd last time at Bowen and gets some weight taken off. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw.
Career
31: 1-8-5
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-3-0
Track Emerald
1: 0-0-0
Track Atherton
1: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1560m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
18: 1-6-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
8: 0-1-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 71%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 69% Profit on Turnover
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ranged up but punctured late at Cloncurry over this trip. Well into preparation now, can play a role.
ILB
At $4.20 lost ground in the run home when 6th last time at Cloncurry. Producing consistent results since resuming from a spell. Rough chance.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten 3½l) when well behind Bonnie Bouquet at Cloncurry 14 days ago; generally struggled with a record of 1-31; been struggling to get her head in front recently so may be vulnerable.
RSIS
At 10/3 faded to finish 6th last run at Cloncurry. Tracking very well recently.
Career
41: 1-11-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Dalby
3: 0-1-1
Track Emerald
2: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1630m
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
20: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-2-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Anthony Allen 30% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Anthony Allen in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 30%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
On a quick back-up. Found it tough since shaking his maiden. Dropped out to last and never sighted at Townsville over longer test. Hard to make a case.
ILB
On a short back up. Odds of $21.00 and well beaten when 8th last start at Townsville but gets a favourable draw. Back in trip. Prefer to watch.
RP
Eighth beaten 12l at Townsville on Sunday upped to 1m; one of his best runs so far came when third here in April but achieved only a sole win; tends to find at least one too good; others are preferred.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Started 20/1 and unimpressive effort when 8th last time at Townsville but has a good draw. Back to a shorter trip.