Shortest win price
Laa De Sha (4)
3.30
Morphettville hosts the Mary Ford 90th Birthday over 1250 metres on a Good 3 track under overcast skies at 4:42 pm AEDT. This Benchmark 86 handicap looks a genuine puzzle, with the market settling around a cluster of reasonably weighted chances. Laa De Sha heads the order, followed by Anotherhouse and Light The Night in close attendance. The form line across these three suggests a race that could be won from either off the pace or tucked in behind a leader — The Stalker sits at the front and will map to lead here, while Power Beau figures on pace in barrier four.
Laa De Sha carries just 58 kilograms from barrier one and comes to the race hot, with jockey Jake Toeroek running 33 per cent above market expectations in his last hundred rides. The form reads solid enough: a win on debut, recent placings in Benchmark 84 company, and the comment that this horse strips fitter suggests a forward showing. Anotherhouse won here last start over 1200 metres off just-off-pace, stripping in after a run at Murray Bridge, and the weight drop to 54 kilos combined with a return to Morphettville and the 1250 metre distance where it has proven form makes a compelling case. Light The Night brings a rating of 100 according to the pack, holds track experience, and produced a second at this track and distance in Benchmark 78 company five weeks ago, though a slow return from the spelling suggests it may not fire immediately.
The outsider angle worth considering: Dobbinair and its trainer partnership are running at odds suggesting a 525 per cent positive expectancy in recent form, a truly extraordinary figure. That partnership fired a runner from the back over this track and distance only two starts ago, so the technical nous is clearly present. Todd Pannell, aboard Zoupurring at barrier nine in the offpace group, rides with a 28 per cent booking edge and boasts form from a recent win at this distance; barrier nine is a slight inconvenience, but the jockey booking data and early pace control from Power Beau and The Stalker may create a tempting scenario for a finishing run.
Shortest win price
Laa De Sha (4)
3.30
Most career wins
Starlite Valley
10-3-11 from 64 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Power Beau · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
The Stalker · Positive
Hot Trainer
G & D Richards & Moyle in good form, out performing market 80%
Zoupurring · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Laa De Sha · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Career
28: 7-5-3
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 2-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
6: 1-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
18: 4-4-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-1-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Brooke King 39% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Brooke King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 39%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Freshened since resuming. Failed to threaten at Cranbourne off extended spell as an outsider. Strips fitter and generally improves second-up. Could get into the placings.
ILB
At $61.00 tailed off to finish 12th last start at Cranbourne but competing at a lower level of competition. Should be going forward early. Would be more keen on the chance of others.
RP
Resume shows that he is a proven winner (seeking a eighth career win); finished last of 12 at Cranbourne four weeks ago; this is competitive and looks an unlikely winner.
RSIS
Started 60/1 and didn't attack the line when 12th last run at Cranbourne but competing at a lower class. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned.
Career
34: 7-3-3
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 1-0-0
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
5: 1-1-2
Fourth-up
5: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
23: 3-3-3
Track Murray Bridge
6: 1-0-0
Track Gawler
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1250m
7: 1-1-2
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
8: 1-0-0
Going Good
20: 5-2-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 2-1-1
Hot Trainer
Positive
G & D Richards & Moyle in good form, out performing market 80%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 58% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Won Open Hcp Murray Bridge Gh 3 Oct. Performance just fair at Morphettville at $14. Tactical speed, inside draw. A few runs under his belt this campaign, worth a look.
ILB
Jumped at $14.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last run around here. Has plenty of early speed. S H Sit takes a large claim. Hard to warm to.
RP
Not disgraced when seventh of nine last month; specialist here with three wins and career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 7-34); others appeal more as this is a fairly competitive event.
RSIS
Started at 13/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last time here. Has plenty of early pace. S H Sit takes a large claim.
Career
32: 8-4-4
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 1-2-0
Second-up
5: 2-0-1
Third-up
5: 2-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-1
Track Cranbourne
4: 1-1-1
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
11: 2-3-2
Distance 1230m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
26: 6-3-3
Going Soft
6: 2-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Todd Pannell 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (22-weeks). Handy fresh horse while brought on with two trial seconds. Can make his presence felt fresh in this line-up with even luck.
ILB
First up from a spell. Was $13.00 and well beaten when 9th last start at Swan Hill but competing in an easier class. Rising in weight. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Ninth of 11 beaten 7l when close behind Gold Spirit (Swan Hill) in June; course regular who has won three times here; returns from a break here; can have a big say if reproducing form of his win three starts back and he has won in classy company before.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Odds of 12/1 and gave away some ground when 9th last time at Swan Hill but taking on easier opposition. Rising in weight.
Career
28: 8-3-3
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 2-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-1
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
16: 4-2-3
Distance 1240m
1: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
21: 7-3-1
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jake Toeroek 33% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 30% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ran on late from the back at Geelong off long spell. Strips fitter. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Started at $7.00 and showed some merit late when 5th last time at Geelong and gets the perfect alley. Strong prospects.
RP
Has achieved eight wins from 28 career runs and has maintained his consistent level of form; far from disgraced (beaten just under 2l) at Geelong last month; not hard to turn elsewhere with a number of his rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Started 6/1 and made some ground when 5th last time at Geelong and drawn by the rails. Forward showing expected.
Career
33: 8-5-5
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 2-0-2
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
11: 4-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
11: 4-1-1
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1235m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
22: 8-4-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 116%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 43% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ridden cold and let down powerfully at Morphettville off long break. Can challenge again.
ILB
Rounded them up when winning last start at this track. One of the punters top hopes.
RP
Course specialist (four wins) and a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 8-33; scored narrowly in a handicap with three of these in behind 21 days ago; despite that Morphettville success, others are preferred.
RSIS
Flew home to win last time at this venue. Should go very close.
Career
23: 6-3-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
9: 4-1-0
Track Gawler
1: 1-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
6: 3-1-0
Going Good
15: 3-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 2-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 2 from 3 when third up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Battled home okay at Morphettville when second-up. Stripping fitter, capable of making an impact.
ILB
Jumped at $13.00 and faded away to finish 11th last run at this track. Prefer in something easier.
RP
Successful six times from 23 career runs; finished towards the rear of 13 over 5f here (handicap) three weeks ago; easy enough to take on in what appears to be a competitive contest.
RSIS
Started 12/1 and tailed off to finish 11th last time at this track.
Career
23: 5-2-3
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
18: 4-2-3
Track Murray Bridge
5: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
18: 4-2-3
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
9: 3-1-1
Going Good
13: 3-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-2-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Alysha Warren current POT is 48% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 52% in L100 rides
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
Holding form. Won from just off the pace-setters at Morphettville. Drawn to receive every chance and a nice weight drop. Well placed to repeat dose.
ILB
Strong effort to the line to win last run here and has a good draw. Has hit top form this campaign with 2 wins from as many runs. Small possibility.
RP
On a hat-trick after last win and course specialist (four wins); narrow scorer in a handicap last month; should go close.
RSIS
Ran over the top of them when winning last run around here and will try to take advantage of the stall. Will benefit with the weight drop. Facing formidable competition.
Career
14: 3-5-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
9: 3-3-1
Track CurrentTrack
9: 3-3-1
Track Murray Bridge
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
10: 2-3-1
Going Soft
4: 1-2-0
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
5 weeks since last run. Well back and made limited headway at Murray Bridge Gh. Two of his wins were this distance. Can make his presence felt.
ILB
Was $6.50 and hit the line well when 5th last start at Murray Bridge and competing in a lower grade. Jason Holder takes the reins today. Will be in the finish.
RP
Not disgraced when fifth (Murray Bridge Gh) last month; loves it here (three wins); others more persuasive given many of his rivals are in good form.
RSIS
Odds of 11/2 and crept into 5th last time at Murray Bridge and going down in class. Jason Holder is a suitable booking. In good shape recently. Has every chance.
Career
64: 10-3-11
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 2-1-1
Second-up
5: 2-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-1
Track Fannie Bay
5: 0-0-2
Track Oakbank
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1578m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-0-2
Going Good
31: 4-2-5
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
29: 6-1-5
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -69% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. Seasoned performer. Refused to shirk task in (Bm70) at Morphettville. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
On a quick back up. Attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at this venue but up against tougher competition. Better to look elsewhere.
RP
Eight-time course winner; unfancied when going close last week.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Good run when placing 2nd beaten by 1/2L last time around here but facing stiffer opposition.
Career
28: 5-5-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 3-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
3: 1-0-0
Track Gawler
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1050m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
9: 1-1-0
Going Good
19: 4-4-1
Going Soft
8: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 24%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ran on late from the back at Morphettville off spell. Strips fitter second run back and suited over the longer trip. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Odds of $12.00 and basic showing when 9th last start here but dropping weight. Likely to get back in the run. Place claims.
RP
Respectable effort (beaten just under 3l) over 5f here (handicap) three weeks ago, behind the reopposing MT Niseko; can't be ruled out if replicating most recent run.
RSIS
At 11/1 not up to standard when 9th last run at this track but gets a reduction in weight. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
19: 4-2-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
11: 1-2-2
Track CurrentTrack
11: 1-2-2
Track Murray Bridge
5: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
6: 1-1-1
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 1-2-1
Going Good
10: 3-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 525%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 24%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Made late rally from the back at Morphettville. Looks up against it.
ILB
At $6.00 came in 7th last start at this venue. Harry Grace and Shayne Cahill & Chelsea Cahill are highly regarded when paired. Some hope in this event.
RP
Resume shows that he is a proven winner (seeking a fifth career win); far from disgraced (beaten just over 2l) when behind the reopposing MT Niseko dropped back in distance over 5f (handicap) last month; recent display was promising so should give it a shot.
RSIS
Started 5/1 and came in 7th last run at this venue. Harry Grace and Shayne Cahill & Chelsea Cahill deserve serious attention as a team.