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Mt Gambier horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Mt Gambier, with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 7 OctMt GambierChange

Race 1 — MGRC Social Club Schnitzel Night Friday, 20Th November Mdn Plate 1550m · jumps

Race preview

Mt Gambier: MGRC Social Club Schnitzel Night Friday, 20Th November Mdn Plate over 1550m on a Soft 5 track got underway at 2:10 pm AEDT under fine skies. The win market for this maiden affair saw Dali's Picasso heading the quotes, closely followed by Goochee Gal, Miss Delightful, and Black Hex holding down the next lines in the market order.

Dali's Picasso comes into calculations with a compelling form line, having charged home from the back half to finish second over 1400m at Coleraine on a Good 3 surface. Having previously placed at this very track, that eye-catching late effort suggests a breakthrough win could be looming. Goochee Gal also brings strong credentials after flashing home with the fastest overall finishing sectionals to run second over 1200m here on Soft 5 going for trainer Heath Montgomerie, and strips fitter for the assignment.

Looking further down the market order, Miss Delightful added weight to her claims with a solid rally into second over 1600m at Coleraine on Good 3 going, giving punters looking for value a reason to include her in wider calculations alongside Black Hex, who has shown an appreciation for softer ground previously and appeals as a potential danger among the off-pace runners.

Race notes

  • 3UP MDN-SW,3yo+,Maiden
  • SOFT5
  • Fine
  • 9 runners

Shortest win price

Dali's Picasso (3)

2.10

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 1Big Luck

Midfield

  • 9Monsoon Indi

Offpace

  • 2Black Hex
  • 6Taajwar
  • 7Goochee Gal
  • 3Dali's Picasso
  • 8Miss Delightful

Firststart

  • 5Lord Timo

Leader

  • 4Flaws And Sins

  • Big Luck · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

  • Black Hex · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Dali's Picasso · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races

  • Flaws And Sins · Negative

    Trainer SR

    Shane Jackson striking at just 11%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Big LuckJ: Kate Walters·T: Wayne Walters958kg81: 0-0-0$26.00$3.80

Career

1: 0-0-0

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mount Gambier

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 8Mount Gambier1200m22 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT712.9L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%

  • 1st Up

    Negative

    May need this run

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (19-weeks). Well down the track this track on debut after blowing in the market. Locally trained but has a tricky draw. Clearly needs to improve and would need a strong betting push.

RP

Well behind the fifth, Black Hex, when eighth of 11 on his debut (6f, here) at 50-1 in May; returning from a layoff here; entitled to respect.

2Black HexJ: Campbell Rawiller·T: Tammy Birnie158kg5 2 9 2 618: 0-2-1$8.00$2.30

Career

18: 0-2-1

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Mount Gambier

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Penola

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Burrumbeet

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    5: 0-1-0

  • Going Synthetic

    3: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Coleraine1600m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD35.06L
  2. 2Bordertown1550m11 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT62.5L
  3. 9Warracknabeal1600m29 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD411.7L
  4. 2Murtoa1600m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY84L
  5. 5Casterton1400m9 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT78.8L
  6. 6Ballarat Synthetic1500m12 July 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC6.8L
  7. 5Ballarat Synthetic1500m7 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.2L
  8. 6Ballarat Synthetic1500m24 June 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC2.2L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 1

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $17 when battled home in Maiden company at Coleraine. Shown a liking for softer ground. Well into preparation now, among the dangers.

RP

Close up behind Miss Delightful when sixth (Coleraine) 12 days ago; good and bad recent runs found on his CV and losing run totals 18; a lot on his plate here and may be vulnerable.

3Dali's PicassoJ: Harry Grace·T: James & Lisa Dodgson358kg2 4 7 10 219: 0-5-2$2.10$1.16

Career

19: 0-5-2

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Stony Creek

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Hanging Rock

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Mornington

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1454m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    12: 0-5-1

  • Going Soft

    7: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 2Coleraine1400m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD30.2L
  2. 10Bordertown1100m11 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT64.6L
  3. 7Murray Bridge1600m10 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT53.9L
  4. 4Stawell1600m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.4L
  5. 2Mount Gambier1400m22 Mar 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD40.4L
  6. 3Edenhope1450m7 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.1L
  7. 6Stony Creek2100m18 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT514.1L
  8. 2Hanging Rock1800m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Super run coming from back half in Maiden company at Coleraine at $18. Placed only other time here. Stripping fitter, looks poised to shake his maiden.

RP

Beaten narrowly over 7f at Coleraine (maiden) last month; shown recent signs of improvement but hit and miss profile recently; passed over as looks more likely to place than win.

4Flaws And SinsJ: Kayla Crowther·T: Shane Jackson458kg9 62: 0-0-0$9.00$2.40

Career

2: 0-0-0

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Warrnambool1200m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.15L
  2. 9Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY814.6L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Shane Jackson striking at just 11%

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Warrnambool at second start. Sharper now, capable of making an impact.

RP

Beaten 6l when sixth of seven over 6f at Warrnambool (maiden) last month; not had much racing - third outing here.

5Lord TimoJ: Toby Atkinson·T: Aaron Purcell658kg–$41.00$4.80

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Toby Atkinson current POT is 16% below Career Avg.

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 57% in L100 rides

  • Debutant

    Positive

    First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

Makes debut for the Aaron Purcell stable. No recorded trials. Look to market for a further guide.

RP

The only newcomer; related to 1m4½f winner Omeo; strong claims with signs of encouragement in profile.

6TaajwarJ: Brooke King·T: D C Saxon858kg8 5 12 8 320: 0-1-3$14.00$3.20

Career

20: 0-1-3

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mount Gambier

    8: 0-1-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    8: 0-1-1

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 906m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1050m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    5: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    8: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    7: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 3Mount Gambier1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT52.94L
  2. 8Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY89.6L
  3. 12Murray Bridge1400m22 July 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT524.4L
  4. 5Mount Gambier1200m12 July 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY104.5L
  5. 8Murray Bridge1200m4 July 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT75L
  6. 13Morphettville1050m20 June 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY1015.7L
  7. 2Mount Gambier1200m10 June 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY92.9L
  8. 4Mount Gambier1550m22 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT74.9L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 35% better than Career Avg.

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Dean Saxon in good form, out performing market 37%

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Brooke King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 58%

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Gave a good sight making the frame this track. Place preferred option.

RP

Ran well to finish third (beaten 3l) over 7f here (maiden) two weeks ago; best form so far in last two starts but still seeking a first success after 20 starts.

7Goochee GalJ: Melissa Julius·T: Heath Montgomerie256kg4 7 7 5 217: 0-1-1$4.80$1.60

Career

17: 0-1-1

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Morphettville

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Murray Bridge

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2050m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1050m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    11: 0-0-1

  • Going Soft

    6: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 2Mount Gambier1200m20 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT51.57L
  2. 5Halidon1000m27 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)3.2L
  3. 7Strathalbyn1600m18 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD411L
  4. 7Penola1600m16 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.6L
  5. 4Murray Bridge2000m1 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD45.1L
  6. 10Strathalbyn2050m10 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD47.6L
  7. 4Clare1800m23 Nov 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.7L
  8. 5Gawler1500m6 Nov 2025 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT511.7L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

Comments

AAP

Showed a fine turn of foot from the back this venue for new trainer. Strips in better shape. Handy last start and can measure up.

RP

Not disgraced when runner-up at 50-1 over 6f here (maiden) on first run for current trainer last month; improved form the last twice but attempts to score at the 18th time of asking.

8Miss DelightfulJ: Jack Hill·T: Aaron Purcell756kg5 6 9 9 214: 0-1-1$5.50$1.80

Career

14: 0-1-1

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mount Gambier

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Terang

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1600m

    6: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1620m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    5: 0-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 2Coleraine1600m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD32.25L
  2. 9Hamilton1400m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT68.9L
  3. 9Hamilton1600m12 July 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY1034.1L
  4. 6Warrnambool2000m14 June 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY1014.02L
  5. 5Donald1620m9 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT75L
  6. 6Mount Gambier1550m22 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT76.1L
  7. 7Warrnambool1200m7 May 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY107.2L
  8. 6Camperdown1600m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD33.7L

Insights

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Solid rally into the placings at Coleraine. Last run was solid and gives some hope.

RP

A respectable second of 12 at Coleraine last month; has taken a step forward the last twice but yet to win after 14 starts.

9Monsoon IndiJ: Rochelle Milnes·T: Ms K Dufty556kg8 12 11 9 511: 0-0-1$34.00$4.40

Career

11: 0-0-1

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    4: 0-0-1

  • Track Casterton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1740m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 5Mount Gambier1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT55.76L
  2. 9Warrnambool1400m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY823.3L
  3. 11Hamilton1200m1 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY1029L
  4. 12Geelong1740m11 July 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT725.4L
  5. 8Donald1356m21 June 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY89L
  6. 7Casterton1000m8 June 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY817.3L
  7. 8Donald2200m17 Nov 2024 · Maiden · GOOD416.95L
  8. 7Hamilton1600m8 Nov 2024 · Maiden · GOOD44.8L

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 1%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 83%

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely this venue at $21. Usually gets back. Looking elsewhere.

RP

Close up behind Taajwar when fifth here over 7f (maiden) two weeks ago; this is her grade; definitely of interest.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Sun 20 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races