Shortest win price
Blue Valentine (7)
1.80
Welcome to our Mt Gambier preview for the Living Turf Mdn Plate over 1200m on a Soft5 track. The race jumped at 2:45 pm AEDT, and punters looking at the win market order saw Blue Valentine leading the betting lines, followed closely by Nicaloha and Pure Pelt, with Rebel Jen and Bolshoi Bella not too far away in calculations as the speed maps showed a packed onpace contingent alongside the early leader.
Taking a closer look at the form underpinning those shorter prices, Blue Valentine brings a compelling case after finishing runner-up at Donald over 1200m and Wangaratta prior, with stable form pointing to a top chance to go one better here. Nicaloha is another getting attention from punters after giving a good sight to make the frame at this track second-up over 1200m, drawing favourably and looking ready to make an impact. Rebel Jen also holds claims after running on soundly from midfield at Warrnambool first run back, suggesting she is right in the mix as she strips fitter.
Down the market a touch, Pure Pelt resumes for a second prep after gaining valuable experience on debut at Morphettville when racing a long way off them, while other runners like Starry Eridanus put blinkers on for the first start. With plenty of speed group runners mapping onpace, this maiden event offered a fascinating tactical yarn for punters who dissected the form lines.
Shortest win price
Blue Valentine (7)
1.80
Back left · leaders right
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Backmarker
Leader
Ashen Glow · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Balgownie Lad · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 33% in Last 100 Rides
Mouse In The House · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Nicaloha · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Career
11: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-0-0
Track Alice Springs
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (22-weeks). Competing in stronger races last prep. Check betting.
ILB
Fresh today after a break. At $20.00 couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last start at Alice Springs and will have to carry more weight. Facing a difficult task.
RP
Was sixth of nine, beaten 8l, in a handicap at Pioneer Park five months ago; still without a win after 11 starts; now running for a new stable; returns from a layoff; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Fresh from a break. Odds of 19/1 and didn't attack the line when 6th last run at Alice Springs and will have to carry more weight.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 33% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Melissa Julius 35% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Had a low-key debut at Warrnambool 21 Sep. Better for the run. Only for the minors here.
ILB
Was $20.00 and looked outclassed when 8th last run at Warrnambool but having second race start. Gets a favourable barrier. Very slim hope.
RP
Not far behind Rebel Jen 16 days ago when eighth over 5f at Warrnambool; could show the benefit for having a run under their belts as others from the stable have in the past; could be in the mix as trainer's runners often benefit for having a run under their belts.
RSIS
Started 19/1 and faded away to finish 8th last run at Warrnambool but was on debut last time. Will try to take advantage of the stall.
Career
12: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0
AAP
Off the speed, picked up soundly and wasn't beaten far this venue over this journey. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Started at $21.00 and finished 4th last run at this track. Should muster plenty of early toe. Appears tested.
RP
Close up behind Nicaloha when fourth two weeks ago; still seeking a first success after 12 starts.
RSIS
Started 20/1 and finished 4th last time at this venue. Will be positive in the run early.
Career
14: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
4: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
3: 0-0-0
Track Port Augusta
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Strathalbyn at cricket score odds. New to Mt Gambier. Keener on others.
ILB
Was $101.00 and came in 7th last start at Strathalbyn. Still in maiden grade after 14 starts. Has the necessary speed to overcome the wide draw. This looks a tough assignment.
RP
Still searching for his first win after 14 attempts; no impression when seventh of 14 at Strathalbyn last month; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and ran 7th last start at Strathalbyn. Trying to win after 14 starts. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide draw.
Career
8: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Bordertown
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-2
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 84%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 83% Profit on Turnover
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Gave a good sight making the frame this track second-up. Drawn favourably. Sharper now, capable of making an impact.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by 2L last run at this venue. Great chance.
RP
Shown recent signs of improvement; finishing third was a good effort two weeks ago; closely matched with Calm The Press on that running.
RSIS
Finished well when 3rd last start at the track. Should go well.
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-1). Wasn't fully extended but still managed a place in only trial appearance at Mt Gambier. A Stead sticks for debut. Follow betting leads.
ILB
4yo by Star Turn racing as a debutant for trainer Craig Stewart. Keep your eye on the market.
RP
From the same family as Field Of Hearts, a winner over 5f; the only newcomer; plenty of appeal with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
4yo by Star Turn having first start for trainer Craig Stewart.
Career
4: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Donald
2: 0-1-1
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1170m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Tyler Donaldson-Aitken in good form, out performing market 76%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Promising Bullbars 4-year-old. Just missed second-up at Donald in Maiden company. Stripping fitter, top chance to go one better.
ILB
Competed in a tight contest last time at Donald and good career start. Has shown early pace in races to date. Will attract plenty of interest.
RP
Ran well when beaten a head (Donald) last month; lightly raced with this just her fifth appearance.
RSIS
Narrowly beaten last run at Donald and showing consistent performance in races. Has plenty of early pace. Has not missed the placings lately in 2 attempts. Suited against these.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (24-weeks). Trialled quietly at Mt Gambier. Awkwardly drawn. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Fresh from a spell. Started at $12.00 and subpar when 9th last run at Naracoorte. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Needs a mighty effort to win this.
RP
Ninth beaten just over 5l at Naracoorte over 7f (maiden) six months ago; lightly raced with this just her third appearance; returns from a layoff; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Back after a break. At 11/1 disappointing effort when 9th last run at Naracoorte. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
10: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
3: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Kate Walters in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 35%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (12-weeks). Looks vulnerable.
ILB
First up from a break. Started at $51.00 and ran 6th last time at this venue. Still a maiden after 10 starts. Very difficult to back.
RP
Held in sixth in July; generally struggled of late and without a win after ten attempts; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Racing fresh after a break. Started 50/1 and ran 6th last start at the track. Yet to break through after 10 starts.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Christine Puls current POT is 65% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 76% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Modest stats but thereabouts at times. Ran on soundly from midfield at Warrnambool first run back. Strips fitter. Right in the mix.
ILB
Started $16.00 and made up ground when 4th last time at Warrnambool and drawn the rails. Should be going forward early. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Creditable fourth at Warrnambool over 5f (maiden) last month; poses a threat given there's a paucity of good recent form on offer in this contest and her latest effort was promising.
RSIS
Was 15/1 and inched into 4th last run at Warrnambool and will appreciate a good stall. Won't be far away during the run. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 129%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Found the debut assignment beyond him at Murray Bridge Gh 26 Sep. Better for it. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
At $19.00 lost ground in the run home when 9th last run at Murray Bridge but fitter for debut run. Should come to hand quickly. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Was ninth of 12 on her debut in Murray Bridge Gh maiden over 5f at 18-1 last month; could improve although needs to.
RSIS
Odds of 18/1 and lost ground in the run home when 9th last run at Murray Bridge but having second career run. Should be going forward early. Could feature here.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming for second prep (27-weeks). Upside off spell. A long way off them at Morphettville on debut when pushed out in the market. Experience gained. Could show more here.
ILB
First up after a break of 27 weeks. Jumped at $71.00 and weakened under pressure when 10th last time at Morphettville but was on debut last time. Have to look elsewhere.
RP
Could not finish better than last on her debut (5f, Morphettville) with blinkers fitted at 66-1 in March; has had some time off; now dropping in class and prospects.
RSIS
Resuming after a break of 27 weeks. Odds of 70/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Morphettville but having second race start.
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (28-weeks). Given some time to grow and mature after some mediocre runs in first two preps. Looks up against it.
ILB
Fresh today after a 28 week break. Didn't threaten when 10th last start here. Should jump out and bowl along.
RP
Tenth of 12 over 7f here (maiden) in March; layoff to overcome.
RSIS
Fresh from a 28 week break. Couldn't stay in touch when 10th last run at the track. Expecting to settle positively.