Shortest win price
Merivale Louvain (7)
1.55
Bunbury's hosting a Class 1 sprint at 8:20 pm AEDT over 1200m on Good(4) track, and the win market is telling an interesting tale. Merivale Louvain sits shortest in the odds, with Free To Fly and Universal Hotness sharing the next line. The speedMap setup sees three runners—Espinho, Free To Fly, and Universal Hotness—grouped on pace, which figures to shape the early tempo. Galactic Community leads from barrier 9, while backmarkers Merivale Louvain, Banffshire, and Royal Defense will need to hunt from the trail. Gingerbread Girl and Varazze occupy the middle ground.
Merivale Louvain's the market choice and the form suggests punters aren't wrong. The R W Price inmate was genuinely impressive on debut at Bunbury back in June, and while the Lark Hill trial in late October wasn't pushed hard, the record reads like a horse that knows this track and can fire fresh. Joey Azzopardi takes the ride from barrier 4, and the map suits—Bunbury punters have clocked that this runner outperforms market expectations by 15 per cent at this circuit. Free To Fly, trained by T M Wolfe alongside jockey Chanel Cooper, was nearly there in maiden company at Belmont first-up last preparation after a 22-week freshen. That Wolfe and Cooper combination is tracking 52 per cent better than expected, though a rider change today—Cooper replacing previous pilot Simon Miller—adds a question mark. Universal Hotness presents a different puzzle: first-up after 30 weeks, closer in Class 5 company at Bunbury last campaign, yet the trainer's strike rate sits at just 8 per cent and the stable is underperforming market expectations by 37 per cent.
Worth noting is Gingerbread Girl, rated 78 but carrying the fastest overall finishing sectionals from her last start at Pinjarra six weeks back. The ex-Ryan Hill mare in Deborah Hagan colours could get into placing money fresh in this company, though she's fourth favourite and jockey Jessica Valas's recent form sits 38 per cent below her career average. Varazze's another who ran on hard last time out, and Galactic Community—from the hot Wolfe combo—has genuine early speed from barrier 9, boasting a brilliant recent strike rate of 41 per cent better than career average. The race shapes up as a genuine contest between the market principals and a few roughies with genuine form credentials.
Shortest win price
Merivale Louvain (7)
1.55
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Espinho · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Free To Fly · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Merivale Louvain · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Universal Hotness · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Showed good resolve to salute on debut at Northam in a competitive finish. Extra trip may assist. Worth a look.
ILB
Finished hard to win last start at Northam and having second career run. Racing in stronger company.
RSIS
Reeled them in when winning last start at Northam and fitter for debut run. Challenged by a tougher grade.
Career
7: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-1-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1170m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
AAP
Made steady inroads but the winner was out of reach at Northam for new stable. Will be fitter second-up. Will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Was strong late when 3rd last start at Northam and gets a favourable barrier.
RP
Ran well to finish third (beaten 2l) at Northam over 5½f (handicap) last month; closely matched with Varazze on that running on debut for this trainer; likely player.
RSIS
Produced an eye catching run when 3rd last time at Northam and can find a nice position from the draw.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Austin Galati 58% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 153%
Key Jockey
Positive
Austin Galati winning at 25% POT in last 100 rides
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Responded strongly to score in small field at Kalgoorlie for new trainer. Harder now but in winning form and can give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Shot clear to win by 3 3/4L last time at Kalgoorlie but rising in grade. Racing for a new trainer.
RSIS
Won by a huge margin of 3 3/4L last time at Kalgoorlie but rising in grade. Racing for a new trainer.
Career
15: 1-1-3
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
6: 1-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
2: 1-0-1
Track Belmont
2: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-1-1
Going Good
10: 0-0-2
Going Soft
5: 1-1-1
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Failed to threaten at Belmont Park at double-figure odds. Coming back in distance. Needs to recapture form.
ILB
Faded to finish 10th last start at Belmont. Definite contender.
RP
Only once has he got into the winners' enclosure; last of ten over 7f at Belmont Park (handicap) 13 days ago; a lot on his plate here and others more appealing.
RSIS
Faded to finish 10th last run at Belmont. Can feature today.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
First-up (28-weeks). Placed at Bunbury first-up last campaign while fitted with a Lark Hill trial. Meeting easier opposition here. Looms large first-up.
ILB
First up after 28 weeks and even though fading at the finish still placed 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L first up last preparation at this track.
RSIS
Resuming and outgunned at the finish when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L resuming last preparation at the track.
Career
8: 1-1-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Belmont
4: 0-1-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-3
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 52%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (22-weeks). Ex Simon Miller in WA. Consistently around the mark last prep. Nearly got the chocolates in Maiden company at Belmont Park first-up last time in while prepared for return with a Lark Hill trial.
ILB
First up from a break of 22 weeks and threw down a serious challenge first up last preparation at Belmont. First race for a new trainer but down in trip. Not at all out of this race.
RP
No impression when tenth of 14 over 1m at Belmont Park (handicap) in May; first start for trainer; meeting some horses in good form and not one to rely on.
RSIS
Resuming and threw down a serious challenge resuming last preparation at Belmont. First race for a new trainer but coming back in trip. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
2: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-1-0
Track Bunbury
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Second campaign (19-weeks). Impressive debut at Bunbury 11 Jun. Not pushed out Lark Hill trial 19 Oct. Can challenge again fresh in this company.
ILB
Fresh after a spell. Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last start at Belmont. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
RP
Found one too strong when beaten half a length at Belmont Park in June in a conditions race; has winning form at this track; not had much racing - third outing here; one to be interested in.
RSIS
Back from a break. Good performance to run into 2nd last time at Belmont. Will be trying to topple them late. Attracts support.
Career
22: 1-3-6
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Ascot
4: 0-0-0
Track Bunbury
12: 1-3-4
Track CurrentTrack
12: 1-3-4
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
12: 1-3-3
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
18: 1-3-6
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 37%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 38% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (30-weeks). Close in Class 5 company at Bunbury first-up last campaign. Seen in stronger company last campaign. Expecting a prominent showing fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Fresh from a break of 30 weeks. Folded up in the straight when 9th last start at Ascot. Respect the betting.
RP
Last of nine over 5½f at Ascot (handicap) in April; has won here; others have more pressing claims as hits the crossbar all too often.
RSIS
Resuming after a 30 week break. Couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last run at Ascot. Could feature here.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 0-0-0
Track Bunbury
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 25%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 36 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Freshened. Sent out $151 when unable to threaten this course second-up. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and average performance when 10th last start at this venue but has the ideal draw. Expected to settle towards the tail. Up against stronger competition. Much prefer the look of others in this race.
RP
Attempting to get off the mark at the sixth time of asking (fifth his best finish so far); beaten just over 5l in tenth in a maiden upped to 7f 36 days ago; is passed over.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and below expectations when 10th last time around here but has a nice advantage with a good stall. Might be ridden for luck. Up in grade.
Career
1: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Collie
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 118%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent forward and showed good resolve to salute on debut at Collie in a competitive finish. Tougher alley. Solid hope if butters up in stronger race.
ILB
Snagged a narrow win last time at Collie and was a debutant last start. Should muster plenty of early toe. The large claim from Sharni Webster should help. Will be in the finish.
RP
Narrow verdict first time out by a nose at Collie at 13-2 ten days ago; strong claims.
RSIS
Managed to come out on top by the slightest of margins last time at Collie and having second race start. Shows good early pace. Sharni Webster provides some weight relief. Will be in the finish.
Career
12: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Track Albany
1: 1-0-0
Track Bunbury
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jessica Valas current POT is 38% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 71% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
AAP
First-up (32-weeks). Ex Ryan Hill in WA. Could get into the placings fresh in this company.
ILB
First run back from a break of 32 weeks. Started $26.00 and was well beaten when 6th last time at Pinjarra. Coming to a new trainer. Entitled to be a big price.
RP
Finished sixth beaten 2½l at Pinjarra in March; achieved just the one win; representing new yard today; a few rivals look in good form so may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Back after a 32 week break. At 25/1 folded up in the straight when 6th last run at Pinjarra. Coming to a new trainer.
Career
26: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
3: 0-0-0
Track Narrogin
1: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
12: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
9: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
22: 1-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 17% better than Career Avg.
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (23-weeks). Ex P J Naylor. Trained here now. Largely struggled in his post maiden runs. Ended last prep in ordinary fashion.
ILB
Resumes after a break. Was $26.00 and didn't attack the line when 8th last time at Kalgoorlie. First start for a new trainer. Prefer in something a lot easier.
RP
Held when eighth beaten 5l at Kalgoorlie over 6½f (handicap) in May; has struggled to factor since winning a handicap at Narrogin last November; runs for a new stable here; this looks a decent race so he can be taken on.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Started 25/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last start at Kalgoorlie. First start for a new trainer.
Career
27: 1-4-5
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
6: 1-3-1
Track Scone
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
11: 1-2-2
Distance 1006m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
13: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
5: 1-0-2
Going Soft
9: 0-2-1
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Closed off late from the tail at Northam. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last start at Northam. Likely to get back in the run. Has struggled so far this preparation. Rough hope.
RP
Can be a player at this level; finished just behind He's A Hustler when fifth at Northam over 5½f (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and inched into 5th last start at Northam. Yet to fire recently with no placings from 7 runs. Will be giving the leaders a big start.