Shortest win price
South Hoba (4)
1.80
Bunbury's serving up a cracking Class 3 sprint at 7:00 pm AEDT over 1675 metres on a Good 4 track—and the win market's telling a tidy story. South Hoba sits shortest, the bloke who's just won at Northam off a wide barrier and was terrific from the gates over 1600 metres on Good 4. Point Rocks is next cab off the rank, fresh off a let-up and worth a look despite that recent Bunbury run where he showed no early zip. Regal Service and Cosmic Chaos follow, with the latter a fast finisher off trials and first-up after 16 weeks away. This is your classic mid-field scrap where early position and map sense matter plenty.
South Hoba's the obvious favourite play—Jarrad Noske's jocking duties have been rock solid lately, up 18 per cent on career average, and the bloke goes hard early from the Leader spot. Tiarnna Noske's training a winner. Regal Service, though, is worth a yarn. Joey Azzopardi's on board as a negative rider change, but the IRD rating of 84 backs the form; he's got track sense at Bunbury and performed well enough second-up at Ascot despite getting back. The Midfield speedGroup of Cosmic Chaos, Regal Service, and Point Rocks will likely share the early running, and that's where the race could be won or lost. Cosmic Chaos is the fast finisher with the quickest closing sectionals last start, yet the Jason Whiting and S W Barrass combination is shedding form—down 56 per cent on recent profits.
Point Rocks deserves a genuine look here. Sharni Webster's been outperforming her career average by 41 per cent lately, and she's booked well—42 per cent above market expectations in her last hundred rides. The IRD rating of 100 is the highest card in the deck, and that recent Bunbury outing saw him run eighth after no early spark, so there's real upside if he settles better second-up off the let-up. South Hoba's the market leader with good reason, but the value might be tucked away with a sharp second look at how Regal Service and Point Rocks map and how the Midfield brigade sorts itself out from the jump.
Shortest win price
South Hoba (4)
1.80
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Cosmic Chaos · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Regal Service · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Rory's Revenge · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
South Hoba · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Career
23: 3-2-2
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Bunbury
4: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1675m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-2
Going Good
14: 2-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -56% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 30% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (16-weeks). Given two trials and has placed first-up. Rough exotics hope.
ILB
First run back from a break. Started at $151.00 and disappointing display when 14th last run at Belmont. Gets back and needs luck. Others preferred.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 15 over 7f at Belmont Park (handicap) dropped back in distance four months ago; definite chance if replicating best previous efforts.
RSIS
Resuming from break. Started 150/1 and was nothing special when 14th last time at Belmont. Expected to settle towards the tail.
Career
8: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-1-0
Track Pinjarra
2: 1-0-0
Track Ascot
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1427m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-2-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5.5kg now
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Ascot second-up. Can challenge.
ILB
Came in 10th last time at Ascot but will find this grade more suitable. Rises in weight. Keep safe.
RP
Finished tenth but wasn't beaten too far (just over 3l) over 1m at Ascot (handicap) last month; lightly raced; others more appealing.
RSIS
Finished 10th last time at Ascot but taking on easier opposition. Up in weight.
Career
9: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
4: 1-0-1
Track Pinjarra
4: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
7: 1-0-2
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Austin Galati 55% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Austin Galati in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 55%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Ascot. One for exotics.
ILB
Started at $14.00 and finished 6th last run at Ascot. Expected to rebound and will try to take advantage of the barrier. Should get going late. Definite winning chance.
RP
Fair effort (beaten 2½l) over 1m at Ascot (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Was 13/1 and ran 6th last time at Ascot. Giving another chance here and gets a favourable stall. Has a good chance.
Career
9: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Terrific from the wide gate at Northam. Leads, handy. Top billing again.
ILB
Controlled the speed when winning by a margin of 4 1/4L last time at Northam. Should be going forward early. Should put in a decent effort.
RP
Scored impressively (Northam) nine days ago upped to 1m; the trainer is going well; leading claims.
RSIS
Led throughout when winning by 4 1/4L last time at Northam. Should race on the pace. Will attract plenty of interest.
Career
15: 3-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
2: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1705m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 3-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Sharni Webster 42% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 118%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Let-up (47-days). Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers this course. Worth a look.
ILB
Let up. Was $5.00 and lacklustre showing when 8th last time at the track. Has the ability to turn things around. Sharni Webster takes a large claim. Will go very close.
RP
Can boast winning form over this C&D; beaten a fair way when eighth 47 days ago; in with a shout based on the pick of his form.
RSIS
Freshened up. Odds of 4/1 and clearly outclassed when 8th last start at this track. Has the potential to improve sharply. The large claim from Sharni Webster should help. Highly respected.
Career
12: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 0-0-0
Track York
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1230m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
8: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jessica Valas current POT is 38% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 219%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 71% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Belmont Park over longer assignment. Drops to shorter trip. Keener on others.
ILB
Was $71.00 and struggled with the pace when 11th last time at Belmont but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Not in this.
RP
Beaten 8l (11th) at Belmont Park over 1m2½f (handicap) two weeks ago; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; others are preferred.
RSIS
At 70/1 lost ground in the run home when 11th last start at Belmont but drawn well. Down in trip.
Career
48: 3-7-5
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
5: 0-0-0
Track Moora
1: 1-0-0
Track Pinjarra Scarpside
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 0-0-1
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
37: 3-6-4
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
John Doyle in good form, out performing market 26%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Collie over longer test. Coming back in distance. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
At $4.40 faded away to finish 6th last time at Collie and facing a stronger class. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Needs a lot of luck.
RP
Has won previously at this course; not beaten that far in sixth (9l) over 1m2f at Collie (handicap) last month; passed over.
RSIS
Started 10/3 and was well beaten when 6th last start at Collie and up against stronger opponents. Should jump out and bowl along.
Career
25: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra Scarpside
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
13: 0-2-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
20: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Long time since last saluted. Well back and made limited headway at Northam. Remains unplaced from 4 starts here. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Started $15.00 and kept chasing when 4th last time at Northam. Likely to get back in the run. Risky betting proposition.
RP
Managed just one success in her career to date; beaten 7l (fourth) at Northam over 1m (handicap) nine days ago; others appeal more.
RSIS
Was 14/1 and picked up some ground to run 4th last start at Northam. Will be giving the leaders a big start.