Shortest win price
All Pink (5)
2.90
Mt Gambier hosts race five on the card with The Border Watch Hcp (56) over the short 900m sprint trip on a Soft5 surface under fine weather conditions. Looking at how the win market has shaped up for this restricted 56 handicap, All Pink heads the betting order, followed closely by Magic Field, Gatsby Crown, and Chilli Reaper rounding out the more fancied runners in early calculations.
Diving into the form behind those shorter prices, All Pink is starting the third run in a new stable and region, coming off a midfield effort at Warrnambool where the galloper wasn't totally disgraced and warrants attention here. Magic Field is another prominent chance in the market, having hit the line okay with a fourth placing at Gawler over 1100m, showing sound form previously at this track and distance which brings plenty of appeal back to country level. Gatsby Crown enters with strong claims too, having let down powerfully in restricted 56 company at Donald over 1000m off an extended spell; that runner also boasts a win at the only other start at Mt Gambier.
Further down the win market order, Chilli Reaper resumes from a thirty-one-week spell after transferring from the Patrick and Michelle Payne yard in Victoria, having previously gone close when nabbed on the wire at Mildura first-up last campaign, suggesting a sharp return could be on the cards for the new stable. Speed maps indicate that runners like Magic Field and All Pink will look to push forward onto the pace early, while Chilli Reaper and Gatsby Crown map to settle further back off the speed as they chase home over the sharp 900m dash.
Shortest win price
All Pink (5)
2.90
Most career wins
Frose
10-8-4 from 65 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Gatsby Crown · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Magic Field · Negative
Jockey Booking
Alysha Warren current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Spike Almighty · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%
Imacreedytwo · Positive
Key Rider
Sophie Potter 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Career
6: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-2
Track Donald
1: 0-0-1
Track Mount Gambier
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1135m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Void of early speed but he let down strongly Restricted 56 company at Donald off extended spell. Better conditioned. Winner at only other start at Mt Gambier. Well placed to make an impact here.
ILB
Ran on when 3rd last run at Donald. Could be in the mix.
RP
Went down by 1l when third at Donald over 5f (handicap) 25 days ago; has won here previously.
RSIS
Hit the line well when 3rd last run at Donald. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
23: 3-3-3
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Gawler
2: 1-0-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-0-0
Distance 908m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
7: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
9: 2-2-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Alysha Warren current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
There to threaten just couldn't quite finish it off at Gawler. Decent alley. Form sound this track and distance. Among the dangers back at country level.
ILB
Was $11.00 and couldn't find the line when 4th last run at Gawler but down in distance. Should muster plenty of early toe. Good chance of taking this out.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 2½l over 5½f at Gawler (handicap) last month; likes this combination of C&D; latest effort was encouraging so looks interesting.
RSIS
Started 10/1 and faded late when 4th last start at Gawler but back in trip. Has early pace and positions nicely. Expect a forward showing.
Career
9: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (14-weeks). Consistently around the mark last prep. Placed at Ararat first-up last campaign. Prefer to see fresh.
ILB
First up after 14 weeks and put together a strong on-speed performance when 3rd first up last preparation at Ararat. Will be facing a significant drop in distance. Prefer in something weaker.
RP
Found life tough when 8l back in fifth at Bordertown over 7½f (handicap) three months ago; this is his level; must be high on list as recent form is thin on the ground in this contest and he was a winner three starts ago.
RSIS
Resuming and worked hard to place 3rd resuming last preparation at Ararat. Will be dropping in distance.
Career
15: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Penshurst
1: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1211m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Key Rider
Positive
Sophie Potter 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 38 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened after returning. Battled home okay in soft going at Casterton after lengthy absence. Winner this trip. One for exotics.
ILB
Started $8.50 and finished 5th last start at Casterton. Can figure in the finish.
RP
Boasts winning form over C&D; largely disappointing since successful in a maiden at Mt Gambier in December; not beaten that far over 5f at Casterton (handicap) 38 days ago; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and ran 5th last run at Casterton. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
Career
9: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Third run now in new stable/region. Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Warrnambool second-up. Warrants attention.
ILB
Jumped at $8.50 and tailed off when 6th last start at Warrnambool. Should improve here and lining up against easier rivals. Should be going forward early. Holds a major chance.
RP
Useful in this grade; not disgraced when sixth of eight at Warrnambool over 5f (handicap) last month; not many of these impressed last time out so not dismissed.
RSIS
At 15/2 below par when 6th last run at Warrnambool. Happy to overlook that run and up against a less challenging field. Should come to hand quickly. Stamps its reason for consideration.
Career
10: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Benalla
1: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-2-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jacob Opperman 42% above market expected in L100 Rides
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (31-weeks). Ex Patrick & Michelle Payne in Victoria. Nabbed on the wire in Benchmark 56 company at Mildura first-up last campaign. Can hit the ground running for new stable off the lengthy break.
ILB
First up from a break of 31 weeks and close to a win first up last preparation at Mildura. First appearance for a new trainer. Should go very close.
RP
Form has an uneven look to it; left backers frustrated when seventh of 12 at 14-5 over 6½f at Ararat (handicap) dropped back in distance in March; starts out for new trainer; has had some time off; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Resuming and close to a win resuming last preparation at Mildura. First race for a new trainer but dropping in distance. Definite claims.
Career
13: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
7: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
7: 1-1-0
Track Penola
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
7: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Backing up quickly. Great run at Mt Gambier 20 Sep. Unable to threaten in the small field in sloppy conditions at Warrnambool. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Odds of $41.00 and lacklustre showing when 7th last run at Warrnambool but stepping down to a lower level. Rough chance today.
RP
Finished last of seven at Warrnambool over 5f (handicap) last Thursday; likes this combination of C&D; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Odds of 40/1 and fairly underwhelming when 7th last start at Warrnambool but taking on a lower class of opponents.
Career
65: 10-8-4
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
7: 1-1-1
Second-up
6: 0-2-0
Third-up
6: 3-1-0
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-0
Track Hamilton
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Distance 905m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 955m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1014m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
31: 4-6-2
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
14: 2-1-2
Hot Trainer
Positive
Jamie Barry in good form, out performing market 48%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 37% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Dry Spell
Negative
Recent form uninspiring
AAP
On pace but folded up quickly at Coleraine. Has speed. Capable but will need to lift sharply from that run.
ILB
Started at $8.50 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last start at Coleraine but can save some energy from the gate. Has early speed and positions nicely. Prefer in an easier race.
RP
Grade looks suitable; not beaten too far when seventh of ten over 5f at Coleraine (handicap) last month; has strong claims.
RSIS
Started at 15/2 and didn't find the line when 7th last run at Coleraine but gets a favourable stall. Won't be far away during the run. Struggling of late.
Career
18: 2-0-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Track Bordertown
1: 0-0-0
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 905m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 906m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 2-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 33% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Melissa Julius 35% above market expected in L100 Rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (17-weeks). Long winning drought. Went close in Restricted 54 company first-up last campaign. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Was $5.50 and made some ground when 5th last start at the track on a heavy rated track. Significant improvement required.
RP
Came home fifth, beaten 6l, over 6f here (handicap) in June; has won here before; is passed over.
RSIS
Resumes from a break. Started 9/2 and outpaced some runners late when 5th last time here but coming back in trip.
Career
12: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1214m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Resuming (17-weeks). Can show early speed. Could get into the placings fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First run back from a break. At $10.00 weakened under pressure when 10th last start at the track but has a good draw. Should jump out and bowl along. Looks hopeful.
RP
Has winning form at this track; finished tenth of 12 over 6f here (handicap) in June; others more likely.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started at 9/1 and struggled with the pace when 10th last time at this venue but has a good draw. Should muster plenty of early pace.
Career
11: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-0-0
Track Penola
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1211m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 47% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Brooke King winning at 48% POT in last 100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Acquitted herself well coming from the tail this course off spell. Will be fitter second-up. One for exotics.
ILB
Odds of $7.50 and improved when 4th last run at this track. Expected to settle towards the rear. Place hope.
RP
Brings winning C&D form to the table; has struggled to factor since winning a handicap at Mt Gambier last November.
RSIS
Started 13/2 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last run at this venue. Likely to settle back in the field.
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
AAP
Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Donald over longer test. Drops to shorter trip. Can play a role.
ILB
Jumped at $18.00 and ran 6th last start at Donald and back to a shorter trip.
RP
Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (just over 4l) at Donald over 6f (handicap) 25 days ago.
RSIS
Odds of 17/1 and came in 6th last run at Donald and down in trip.
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -50% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Prominent but just felt the pinch over concluding stages this track after lengthy absence. Strips in better shape. On pacer, perfect gate. Not out of this.
ILB
Started at $4.00 and faded away to finish 6th last run at this track but hard to fault at the distance. Has shown early pace in races to date.
RP
Last of six two weeks ago; three wins from 15 here.
RSIS
Started 3/1 and weakened under pressure when 6th last run at this venue but ideal trip as proven previously. Likely to be well placed early.
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (61-days). Sent to lead, made a rapid retreat back through the field this course after lengthy absence. Gate a worry. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
Racing fresh after a break. Lost ground in the run home when 6th last start at this venue. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw.
RP
Beaten 7l when sixth of eight two months ago; grade looks suitable; possesses winning form at this track.
RSIS
Fresh today after a break. Weakened to finish 6th last start around here. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall.