Orange (NSW) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:50 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Orange (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Mon 19 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Mon, 19 OctOrange (NSW)Change

Race 3 — Orange Vet Hospital Mdn Plate 1300m · jumps Mon 19 Oct, 3:20 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Orange for the Orange Vet Hospital Mdn Plate over 1300m on a good4 track with fine weather. The early win market is led by Invasion, followed closely by Too Hot To Handle and Three Wishes, with Pieripper and Winter Garden rounding out the order as punters search for some value in this maiden clash.

Looking into the form of the early favourites, Invasion is prepared by Bjorn Baker and jumps from barrier one with Pierre Boudvillain steering, boasting a sound recent fourth at this track and distance where the runner wasn't beaten far off the speed. Three Wishes lines up for J M Austin with Louise Day in the saddle from barrier three, carrying a very honest recent record including a solid third here over 1300m with a fine turn of foot from the back.

As for the speed map, Invasion is set to take up the running as the leader, while Three Wishes pushes forward to settle on the pace. Further down the order, runners like Too Hot To Handle and Pieripper will look to work into the race from their off-pace lanes as they build on recent fitness.

Race notes

MDN-SW,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
5 runners

Shortest win price

Invasion (7)

2.60

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

8Pieripper

Offmidfield

6Winter Garden
10Too Hot To Handle

Midfield

5Three Wishes

Leader

7Invasion

Three Wishes · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 31% lower than Career Avg.
Winter Garden · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Invasion · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Pieripper · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 6%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1AerionScratched6––––

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1020m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Moruya1200m2 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT79.8L
7Nowra1200m20 Sept 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD45.4L
10Moruya1020m28 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD412.4L
7Warwick Farm1207m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.3L
9Warwick Farm1200m13 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)12.4L
9Warwick Farm786m20 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)10.5L
10Warwick Farm792m18 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial11L

Insights

Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Ridden back and never a factor at Moruya last start. Keener on others.

ILB

On a quick turnaround. Ran 6th last run at Nowra.

Held in sixth at Nowra over 7f (maiden) yesterday; strong claims given there is limited recent form on offer in this race; held an entry at Nowra Sunday.

RSIS

On a quick back up. Finished 6th last time at Nowra.

2Captain SmokerScratched7––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Canberra1280m7 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD36.2L
9Warwick Farm1202m7 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)4.6L
8Warwick Farm815m26 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)4.8L
9Warwick Farm789m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial7.7L

Insights

Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Let-up (73-days). Ex J M Austin in NSW. Unremarkable debut performance at Canberra Acton when pushed out in the market 7 Aug. Hard to warm to.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Finished 5th last start at Nowra. Does take a while to get into stride.

Fifth of 12 beaten 8l over 7f at Nowra (maiden) yesterday when he had a couple of these behind on debut for this trainer; could improve from first run although a leap forward required to win this; was due to run at Nowra Sunday.

RSIS

On a quick turnaround. Ran 5th last start at Nowra. Likely to get back.

3RawanoScratched10––––

Career

36: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
3: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
16: 0-0-1
Track Queanbeyan
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
10: 0-0-1
Distance 1405m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
16: 0-0-1

Last starts

8Moruya1650m2 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT715.4L
6Nowra1400m20 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD45.3L
6Goulburn1200m23 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD47.8L
10Moruya1425m19 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT510.2L
7Sapphire Coast1405m7 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT713.8L
7Nowra1200m24 May 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY95.2L
2Moruya1425m10 May 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD40.4L
4Goulburn1300m27 Apr 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD44.9L

Insights

Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Prolific maiden with little to show. Settled back and always among the cab-catchers at Moruya over longer test. Has a tricky draw. Well off the mark and a perennial maiden.

ILB

Backs up quickly. Finished 8th last time at Nowra.

Beaten 9l in eighth at Nowra over 7f (maiden) yesterday; hasn't shown much recently; makes limited appeal; was entered at Nowra Sunday.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. Came in 8th last run at Nowra.

4Skeldale HouseScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (41-weeks). A very soft debut performance at Gundagai 2 Jan. Will need to improve on exposed form.

ILB

Back after a 41 week break. Started at $12.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run at Gundagai but was on debut last time.

RSIS

Fresh today after a break of 41 weeks. Was 11/1 and didn't find the line when 9th last run at Gundagai but was on debut last time.

5Three WishesJ: Louise Day·T: J M Austin357kg5 2 2 6 37: 0-2-3$5.50$2.30

Career

7: 0-2-3

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1080m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-2-3
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Orange1300m8 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD41.9L
6Goulburn1200m11 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD41.5L
2Canberra1080m21 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD34L
2Canberra1080m24 July 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD31.6L
5Muswellbrook1000m7 July 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT73.9L
4Warwick Farm815m26 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)3.2L
7Warwick Farm786m9 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.4L
3Gosford1100m11 Feb 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD43.6L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 31% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 36% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well

Comments

AAP

Very honest. Showed a fine turn of foot from the back this venue over today's trip. Drawn to get a conservative run. Hard fit, among the dangers again.

ILB

Good effort when finishing 3rd last time here. Showing good ability this campaign. Definite claims for punters.

Seems to be improving based on last two runs; split Winter Garden (runner-up) and Invasion (fourth) when on the premises, finishing third at 4-1 11 days ago; easy enough to take on as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Rattled home nicely into 3rd beaten by 2L last run at the track. Very competitive of late. Major chance.

6Winter GardenJ: Chad Lever·T: R J Nutman257kg8 6 9 22: 0-1-0$12.00$3.70

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Orange1300m8 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD40.94L
9Hawkesbury1000m5 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.3L
6Hawkesbury1000m24 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2L
8Gosford1000m13 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.4L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well

Comments

AAP

Courageous effort in the Mdn Plate this track at second appearance. Can challenge again.

ILB

Attacked the line when 2nd last time here and can find a nice position from the draw. Has some claims.

Went off 100-1 when good second 11 days ago upped to this trip.

RSIS

Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at the track and can find a nice position from the draw. Will be trying to topple them late. Not at all out of this race.

7InvasionJ: Pierre Boudvillain·T: Bjorn Baker156.5kg6 2 8 5 43: 0-0-0$2.60$1.34

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Orange1300m8 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD41.94L
5Goulburn1400m24 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD45.79L
8Goulburn1200m11 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD43.8L
2Hawkesbury1000m24 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.3L
6Randwick740m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.2L
8Warwick Farm792m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial6.2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Bjorn Baker in good form, out performing market 37%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs

Comments

AAP

Off the speed, picked up soundly and wasn't beaten far this course over this journey. Drawn for softer run. Big show.

ILB

Was $8.50 and outmatched in the closing stages when 4th last time here and has minimal work to do from the gate. Has plenty of early speed. Major chance.

Not beaten too far (2l) 11 days ago.

RSIS

Was 15/2 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last start around here and gets a favourable stall. Won't be far away during the run. Expected to be competitive.

8PieripperJ: Clayton Gallagher·T: G D Hickman556.5kg5 9 3 7 53: 0-0-0$6.00$2.45

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Nowra1200m20 Sept 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD45L
7Warwick Farm792m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6L
3Warwick Farm817m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.2L
9Warwick Farm1000m6 May 2026 · 2Y C&G MDN-SW · GOOD47.8L
5Newcastle900m23 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN SW · SOFT53.8L
5Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.2L
6Warwick Farm799m13 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial8.5L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Freshened after return. Well back and made some minor headway but passing mainly tired rivals at Nowra. Can play a role if he gets the breaks.

ILB

Started $7.00 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Nowra. Interesting gear change of winkers on first time. Could feature here.

Not disgraced when fifth of ten at Nowra over 6f (maiden) four weeks ago.

RSIS

Was 6/1 and got going late when 5th last time at Nowra. Interesting gear change of cheekpieces on first time. Watch for a sign in the market.

9Springys ThinkenScratched11––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-1-0). $100k purchase. Dam won two races. Encouraging performance in most recent barrier trial. Alley makes it tough but market watch advised.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Below par when 10th last run at Nowra but fitter for debut run.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Disappointing outing when 10th last run at Nowra but having second career run.

10Too Hot To HandleJ: Winona Costin·T: G Portelli456.5kg5 8 8 2 44: 0-0-0$2.70$1.34

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Goulburn1100m6 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT62.68L
2Warwick Farm819m15 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.3L
8Warwick Farm792m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.6L
8Wagga1200m1 May 2026 · 2Y SW · GOOD410.3L
5Warwick Farm1200m15 Apr 2026 · 2YCG MDN · GOOD43.4L
5Gosford1100m14 Mar 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT53.1L
5Warwick Farm792m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial4.9L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 70%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Taken back and safely held in shallow field at Goulburn after lengthy absence. Building fitness. Drawn to receive every chance. Warrants attention.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and advanced late into 4th last run at Goulburn. Keep safe.

Wasn't beaten that far when fourth (beaten 2½l) over 5½f at Goulburn (maiden) 13 days ago; a number of these have questions to answer so should go close.

RSIS

At 18/1 inched into 4th last start at Goulburn.

11Let's EngageScratched9––––

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Moruya1200m2 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT73.3L
2Nowra900m20 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.5L
9Goulburn1200m11 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD45.1L
1Hawkesbury800m24 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.8

Insights

Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Prominent before fading late in rain affected going at Moruya. Fancy the extra trip will suit. All the better, commands attention here.

ILB

On a quick turnaround. Was $13.00 and performed below standard when 10th last time at Nowra.

Was tenth of 11, beaten 7l, at Nowra over 6f (handicap) yesterday; cannot be ignored; held an entry at Nowra Sunday.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. Odds of 12/1 and not up to scratch when 10th last run at Nowra.

Odds correct as at Mon 19 Oct, 3:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Thu 8 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races