Shortest win price
Leica Storm (4)
3.40
Welcome to Randwick-Kensington for the Hyland Race Colours benchmark 72 over 1800m. The track is rated a soft 7 under overcast skies for this 5yo+ event that jumped at 4:05 pm AEDT. Looking at the early win market order, Leica Storm sits at the head of affairs, closely followed by Botanical Boy and Standard Deviation, with Sneaky Choice and Furious not too far away in betting.
Taking a look at the form for our market principals, Leica Storm comes out of Matthew Smith's yard carrying 58.5kg from barrier 6 under Zac Lloyd, having finished within striking distance at Warwick Farm over 1600m on a soft 5 surface, showing solid credentials as a major player. Botanical Boy, prepared by A & S Freedman and piloted by Adam Hyeronimus from barrier 9, scored a tight win at Warwick Farm over 1600m last time out where he clocked the fastest overall finishing sectionals, suggesting the rise in distance here should be a distinct plus.
Further down the line, Standard Deviation for C J Waller and James Mc Donald looks an interesting proposition from barrier 4, having gone close at Canterbury over 1900m when finishing within striking distance on a soft 7 track, pointing to strong each-way claims. Sneaky Choice maps well from barrier 2 for Tommy Berry and Brad Widdup, coming off a solid effort at Warwick Farm where the step up in trip should suit. Punters assessing the speed map will note Leica Storm is nominated as the leader, while runners like Botanical Boy, Standard Deviation, and Sneaky Choice look to settle midfield.
Shortest win price
Leica Storm (4)
3.40
Most career wins
Knights Armour
10-3-5 from 45 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Botanical Boy · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Knights Armour · Positive
Top Trainer
Stable in form at present with a S/R of 22%
Furious · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 39% in Last 100 Rides
Leica Storm · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Career
12: 4-2-0
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 2-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Going Good
5: 3-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Got up in final strides at Warwick Farm. More ground a plus. Can go back to back.
ILB
Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Warwick Farm. Will be fighting out the finish.
RP
Accounted for Leica Storm and Knights Armour scoring narrowly at Warwick Farm over 1m (handicap) two weeks ago; resume shows that he is a proven winner (seeking a sixth career win); the stable has enjoyed plenty of winners of late; warrants plenty of respect.
RSIS
Finished with purpose when winning last run at Warwick Farm. Will go close here.
Career
45: 10-3-5
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
7: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
5: 1-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Albury
2: 0-0-1
Track Goulburn
5: 3-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1800m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
19: 4-0-3
Going Heavy
8: 2-1-0
Going Soft
17: 3-2-2
Top Trainer
Positive
Stable in form at present with a S/R of 22%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 79%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 116%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 38% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Under a hold, only battled home at Warwick Farm off spell. Usually gets back. Keener on others.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and had difficulty when 8th last time at Warwick Farm but will appreciate a good draw. Ross Lavis stable are on fire recently. Very unlikely to shake these.
RP
Safely held at Warwick Farm last month behind Botanical Boy back down to 1m when not disgraced; has achieved ten wins from 45 career runs; can be in the thick of things if replicating best previous efforts.
RSIS
Odds of 100/1 and had difficulty when 8th last time at Warwick Farm but drawn well. Recent form of the stable is strong. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
23: 4-3-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
7: 1-2-0
Second-up
5: 0-1-0
Third-up
5: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-1
Track Caulfield
4: 1-1-0
Track Sandown
3: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 3-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 39% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Dylan Gibbons 45% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Gibbons winning at 36% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $61 when never got into the race at Rosehill. Needs to lift to figure. On trust.
ILB
Looked flat when 9th last time at Rosehill but challenged by weaker competitors. Will be motoring home late. Rises in weight. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 at Rosehill over 1m1½f (handicap) last month; has won at this course; this is his grade; should not be far away.
RSIS
Lacked competitiveness when 9th last time at Rosehill but facing a weaker group of contenders. Going up in weight. Keep safe.
Career
18: 4-4-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-0-3
Second-up
4: 1-1-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Newcastle
3: 0-0-2
Track Randwick
1: 0-1-0
Track Mudgee
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-3-2
Going Good
9: 3-1-3
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Finished within striking distance 3yo+ (Bm72) at Warwick Farm. Major player here.
ILB
Started at $4.40 and came in 5th last time at Warwick Farm. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Should come to hand quickly. Will run close.
RP
1l behind the winner, Botanical Boy, over 1m at Warwick Farm (handicap) last month; a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 4-18.
RSIS
Odds of 10/3 and came in 5th last run at Warwick Farm. Expecting improvement. Shows good early pace. Jockey Zac Lloyd and trainer Matthew Smith are a promising combination. Should go close.
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 37 days
AAP
Kept fresh. Triumphant on speed display at Taree for new trainer. First try at 1800m. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Nice effort when winning by 2 1/4L last time at Newcastle but racing against tougher rivals. Goes down in weight.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Finished on top by 2 1/4L last start at Newcastle but challenged by more formidable competitors. Unbeaten recently with 2 wins from 2 starts.
Career
9: 1-3-0
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1637m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 1-2-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
AAP
Ready to win. Went close at Canterbury 26 Aug. Finished within striking distance 5yo+ (Bm72) at Canterbury. Each way.
ILB
Jumped at $4.00 and came in 4th last time at Canterbury. Has the potential to improve sharply. James Mcdonald is a strong choice aboard. Expecting a solid performance.
RP
Admirably consistent; creditable fourth over 1m1½f at Canterbury (handicap) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Started at 3/1 and ran 4th last start at Canterbury. Has the ability to turn things around. Jockey James Mcdonald is in form. Should be in the finish.
Career
12: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 2-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 2-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went close at Warwick Farm 2 Sep. Not disgraced at Warwick Farm at $6.50. Should appreciate stepping up in distance. Not out of this.
ILB
Started $6.50 and made some ground when 5th last start at Warwick Farm and has a positive draw. Tommy Berry takes the reins today. Do not dismiss.
RP
Proven that she knows how to get her head in front (seeking a fourth career win); not beaten that far over 1m at Warwick Farm (handicap) 14 days ago; excuses last time (hampered) and could figure.
RSIS
Was 11/2 and closed off nicely when 5th last start at Warwick Farm and can find a nice position from the draw. Tommy Berry is a suitable booking.
Career
21: 4-3-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 2-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
6: 1-1-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2110m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 2140m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2145m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1
Going Good
14: 3-2-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 20% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Every chance but compounded at Canterbury second-up. New to Randwick-Kensington. Looks up against it.
ILB
Odds of $31.00 and weakened under pressure when 9th last time at Canterbury. Should be going forward early. Rough hope.
RP
Finished behind Standard Deviation at Canterbury when beaten 9l (ninth of ten) 21 days ago upped to 1m1½f; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and didn't attack the line when 9th last time at Canterbury. Will be positive in the run early.
Career
23: 5-1-5
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-1
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
9: 1-1-2
Distance 1614m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 4-1-3
Jockey Booking
Negative
Braith Nock current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent out $31 when never got into the race at Newcastle first up. New to Randwick-Kensington. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Started $31.00 and ran 8th last run at Newcastle and competing in a more challenging class. Needs to improve.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just over 4l, finishing eighth of 13 at Newcastle over 7½f (handicap) last month; career wins-runs record of 5-23; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and ran 8th last run at Newcastle and racing in stronger company.
Career
15: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Wyong
1: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 1-2-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ridden back and never a factor at Illawarra Grange for new stable. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
At $21.00 only fair when 6th last start at Illawarra Grange and challenged by more formidable competitors. Cannot have.
RP
Beaten 7l when sixth of eight at Illawarra Grange over 7f (handicap) on debut for new trainer 20 days ago; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started at 20/1 and fairly underwhelming when 6th last start at Illawarra Grange and rising in grade.