Randwick-Kensington horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 9:06 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Randwick-Kensington, with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 7 OctRandwick-KensingtonChange

Race 6 — Exceedance @ Vinery Stud (Bm78) 1400m · jumps Wed 7 Oct, 5:15 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to the Randwick-Kensington preview for the Exceedance @ Vinery Stud Benchmark 78 over 1400m, run on a soft 7 track under overcast skies. Looking at how punters have treated the win market, True To Form leads the betting line as the shortest runner, closely followed by Octa De Lago, Agent Zero, and Flying From Above to round out the early head of the market.

Digging into the form behind those shorter prices reveals some interesting yarns. True To Form resumes here from a 20-week spell for trainer K A Lees, carrying 61kg from barrier 5 with James Mc Donald steering, and strikes form quickly after two barrier trials. Meanwhile, Octa De Lago is set from barrier 2 for trainer Richard Litt and jockey Dylan Gibbons, coming off a solid run at Warwick Farm following a long break where it made late ground from last at the turn. Flying From Above is another showing plenty of conviction recently, having scored at Warwick Farm prior to being freshened up by Edward Cummings.

Further down the speed map, Satness looks to take up the running from barrier 4 with Jean Van Overmeire aboard, while runners like Anythink Goes loom as fast finishers after clocking the overall fastest finishing sectionals last start. With a mix of on-pace runners and backmarkers like Hanau sharing the early speed groups, this race sets up as a fascinating tactical battle across the Kensington circuit.

Race notes

3UP CG&E BM78 HCP,3yo+,Benchmark 78,CG&E BM78
SOFT7
Overcast
7 runners

Shortest win price

True To Form (2)

2.90

Most career wins

Satness

10-14-11 from 79 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

5Hanau

Offmidfield

1Anythink Goes

Offpace

4Octa De Lago

Onpace

2True To Form
6Agent Zero
7Flying From Above

Leader

8Satness

Anythink Goes · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
True To Form · Negative
Early Splits
Out of races with slow early tempos
Octa De Lago · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Hanau · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 115%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Anythink GoesJ: Mollie Fitzgerald·T: Matthew Smith362kg4 3 2 2 153: 6-13-7$11.00$3.90

Career

53: 6-13-7

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
8: 0-1-0
Second-up
7: 2-0-1
Third-up
6: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
5: 0-2-1
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
4: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
15: 0-4-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 2-0-3
Going Good
18: 1-6-1
Going Heavy
10: 1-2-1
Going Soft
25: 4-5-5

Last starts

1Warwick Farm1200m28 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.3
2Wyong2100m4 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.2L
2Wyong2000m16 Aug 2026 · 3UP CL6 SW · GOOD41.3L
3Rosehill2000m1 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · SOFT51.1L
4Randwick1800m11 July 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · HEAVY96.3L
1Rosehill2000m4 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT6-0.6
3Rosehill1800m27 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.4L
7Rosehill1500m13 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Mollie Fitzgerald current POT is 11% below Career Avg.
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form

Comments

AAP

4 weeks since last run. Racing with some conviction. Narrowly beaten in the small field at Wyong over longer test. Major player here despite big impost.

ILB

Right in contention last time at Wyong and facing a weaker grade. Finishes off strongly. Producing consistent results this campaign but will be dropping in distance. Definitely worth considering.

Producing consistent form; outran 12-1 odds when a close runner-up last month at Wyong in a Listed handicap; down in class this time but he can be taken on.

RSIS

Competed in a tight contest last run at Wyong and up against a less competitive field. Tracking very well in recent runs but coming back in distance. Watch the betting.

2True To FormJ: James Mc Donald·T: K A Lees561kg3 2 2 4 317: 4-4-2$2.90$1.60

Career

17: 4-4-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
4: 3-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Lyon Parilly
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1599m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1699m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-2-0
Going Unknown
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
11: 3-2-1

Last starts

3Wyong1000m10 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.1L
4Gosford800m31 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)3.5L
2Doomben1350m16 May 2026 · CL6 · SOFT72.1L
2Eagle Farm1400m18 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.1L
3Eagle Farm1400m21 Mar 2026 · BM78 · GOOD40.9L
1Canterbury1250m20 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · GOOD4-0.4
7Beaumont1000m8 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial3L
8Gosford1000m9 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial5.4L

Insights

Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape

Comments

AAP

First-up (20-weeks). Strikes form quickly while trialling 2 times ahead of return. Good second only time this t/d. Can challenge again fresh in this company.

ILB

Goes well first up. Picked up late ground when 2nd beaten by 2L last start at Doomben but up in weight. Should come to hand quickly. Will show up at the business end.

String of consistent efforts of late and record shows he knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 4-17); a respectable second of 11 at Doomben five months ago; James McDonald a good booking; returns from a layoff.

RSIS

Proven record when resuming. Ran home into 2nd last time at Doomben but has to cope with a weight increase. Should be going forward early. James Mcdonald is a plus. Holds a major chance.

3Felix MajesticScratched6––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Key Rider
Positive
Nash Rawiller 28% above market expected in L100 Rides

Comments

AAP

Only nailed late after dictating at Warwick Farm. Pace influence. A distance specialist. Looks suitably placed in this line-up.

ILB

Couldn't keep the momentum going throughout when 3rd last time at Warwick Farm. Should muster plenty of early toe.

Produced a good effort to finish third over 6½f at Warwick Farm (handicap) in front of Octa de Lago last month; has winning track form; consistent performer; by no means ruled out if confirming promise shown last time.

RSIS

Applied plenty of pressure when 3rd last start at Warwick Farm. Shows good early pace.

4Octa De LagoJ: Dylan Gibbons·T: Richard Litt260kg9 7 6 1 411: 3-2-0$3.20$1.75

Career

11: 3-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-2-0

Last starts

4Warwick Farm1300m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.82L
1Warwick Farm1208m15 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.3
6Warwick Farm795m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.9L
7Warwick Farm819m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)5.4L
9Randwick1400m11 Apr 2026 · Open · GOOD45.7L
8Warwick Farm795m20 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)12.1L
1Hawkesbury1400m19 Feb 2026 · CLASS 5 SW · GOOD4-1
8Kembla Grange1300m28 Jan 2026 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD453.4L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

AAP

Midway Plate (C5) winner Hawkesbury 19 Feb. Last at turn, ran on late at Warwick Farm off long break. Better for the outing. Key player.

ILB

Jumped at $13.00 and hit the line well when 4th last start at Warwick Farm and has a good draw. Can win.

Admirable career strike-rate (three from 11 to date); not disgraced when fourth over 6½f at Warwick Farm (handicap) last month; plenty of appeal.

RSIS

Started 12/1 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last time at Warwick Farm and has a positive draw. Must be considered here.

5HanauJ: Tommy Berry·T: M S Minervini658.5kg3 1 10 11 623: 4-5-0$14.00$4.20

Career

23: 4-5-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
6: 0-2-0
Second-up
5: 2-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Rosehill
6: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
4: 2-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
10: 1-4-0
Going Good
8: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
6: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 2-4-0

Last starts

6Canterbury1250m16 Sept 2026 · 5UP BM72 HCP · GOOD42.31L
11Rosehill1100m29 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · GOOD44.3L
10Rosehill1200m18 July 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM78 HCP · HEAVY94.9L
1Wyong1000m8 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(9)-0.3
3Scone1000m1 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)1.2L
8Warwick Farm1400m1 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT55L
1Warwick Farm1400m11 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT6-1.5
6Randwick1200m28 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · SOFT53.3L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 115%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Okay at latest when settled back. Rough claims.

ILB

Started $51.00 and lacked competitiveness when 6th last time at Canterbury. Jockey Tommy Berry and trainer Mark Minervini are an appealing combination. Might have to make up considerable ground. Watch betting.

Posted respectable effort when beaten 2½l at Canterbury over 6f (handicap) last month; has struggled to factor since winning a handicap at Warwick Farm in March; this is competitive and one to tread carefully with.

RSIS

Started 50/1 and below par when 6th last time at Canterbury. Jockey Tommy Berry and trainer Mark Minervini must be respected together. Likely to get back in the field.

6Agent ZeroJ: Siena Grima·T: C Maher158kg1 1 8 2 314: 3-3-0$4.80$2.25

Career

14: 3-3-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
4: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-2-0

Last starts

3Warwick Farm795m28 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.8L
2Warwick Farm819m15 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.4L
8Randwick2000m6 June 2026 · 3Y BM72 · SOFT54.2L
1Randwick1800m23 May 2026 · 3Y BM72 (71) · HEAVY10-0.5
1Canberra1600m8 May 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.9
8Randwick2000m18 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD45.3L
11Randwick1600m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo · SOFT77.9L
2Hawkesbury1500m7 Mar 2026 · CL1 · SOFT52.4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -46% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 26%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (17-weeks). Not beaten far Maiden company at Kembla Grange first-up last preparation. Remote place hope.

ILB

First up after 17 weeks and was amongst the placegetters when 2nd first up last preparation at Hawkesbury. Won't be far away during the run. Can't leave out of your calculations.

A course winner; he meets the required standard ability wise; out of the frame (beaten just over 4l in eighth) over 1m2f here (handicap) in June; returns from a layoff here; best of his form suggests ability; he's an attractive contender.

RSIS

Resuming and caught the eye when 2nd resuming last preparation at Hawkesbury. Should come to hand quickly. Gets a favourable stall. Will be down in distance.

7Flying From AboveJ: Adam Hyeronimus·T: Edward Cummings757kg1 2 2 1 412: 3-2-1$6.50$2.80

Career

12: 3-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
2: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Randwick1050m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.5L
1Warwick Farm1600m2 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.4
2Rosehill1900m15 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT51.6L
2Forbes1600m2 Aug 2026 · FORBES CUP MB76 · GOOD40.1L
1Hawkesbury1500m19 July 2026 · BM64 · SOFT6-0.1
4Hawkesbury1400m2 July 2026 · Class 1 · SOFT72.3L
8Seymour1200m21 May 2026 · BM62 · SOFT66.2L
5Ballarat1200m30 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.8L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 32%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 49% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Racing with conviction. Pushed forward and found enough to score as a $8 chance at Warwick Farm. Warrants some attention.

ILB

Dictated the tempo to win by a long neck last start at Warwick Farm. Small possibility.

Got home in front by a neck over 1m at Warwick Farm (handicap) dropped back in distance last month; career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 3-12); is respected.

RSIS

Went to the front and never looked back to win by a long neck last run at Warwick Farm.

8SatnessJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: R & L Price456.5kg2 4 5 5 179: 10-14-11$26.00$6.50

Career

79: 10-14-11

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 0-2-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-1
Track Wagga
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
13: 0-3-1
Going Heavy
14: 1-3-2
Going Soft
19: 2-3-2
Going Good
46: 7-8-7

Last starts

1Kembla Grange1600m26 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD4-0.1
5Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD45.9L
5Randwick1400m5 Sept 2026 · 3UP MIDWAY BM72 HCP · GOOD43.9L
4Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD42.3L
2Kembla Grange1200m8 Aug 2026 · BM68 HCP · GOOD40.5L
4Illawarra Grange800m3 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L
7Rosehill1500m6 Apr 2026 · 5UP BM78 HCP · SOFT64.3L
9Rosehill1500m21 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · SOFT62.4L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 63% better than Career Avg.
Key Jockey
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire winning at 57% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Seasoned performer. Brave display holding on at Kembla Grange. Can go forward. Meets a deeper race.

ILB

Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Kembla Grange but taking on stronger opponents. Shows good early pace. Watch the betting.

Scored narrowly in a handicap at Kembla Grange 11 days ago; has won at this course; passed over despite that win at Kembla Grange.

RSIS

Picked up nicely to win last run at Kembla Grange but competing in a higher grade. Displays good tactical pace.

9AssociateScratched9––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (22-weeks). Placed at Moruya first-up last campaign while given some soft trial work for return. Has an adverse draw for return. Others with greater appeal.

ILB

First up and caught the eye when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L first up last preparation at Moruya. Competing in a lower grade. Back to a shorter distance.

Although no show last time out, he had been running consistently well prior to that; finished towards the rear of 14 (Wagga) five months ago in a Listed handicap; returns from a layoff; dropping in class but others make more appeal.

RSIS

Resuming and managed to finish 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L resuming last preparation at Moruya. Goes down in grade. Dropping back to a shorter trip.

Odds correct as at Wed 7 Oct, 5:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 9 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races