Shortest win price
Roy Kelton (2)
3.80
Wagga's throwing up a Benchmark 50 handicap over 1600m in fine conditions on a Good 4 track at 4:20 pm AEDT, and the market's got Roy Kelton shortest in the win betting, with Perfectly Good next, then Sunroe and Dunwithya close behind. It's a race where the speed map could dictate plenty — Passing Through will lead, the Onpace brigade of Roy Kelton, Rasloc and Gettin' Tipsy will settle just off the pace, and a swag of runners will come from Offpace or Midfield. That pattern could play right into the hands of a strong finisher if the tempo gets hot early.
Roy Kelton shaped as the tick in the market and the form line backs it. Nick Heywood was on when the gelding won at Canberra at 1300m in a small field when second-up, and the AAP commentary reckons he looks more than capable at this level. That jockey-trainer combo with K Dryden and L Snowden is overperforming market expectations by 49 per cent, and last start Heywood clocked the fastest finishing sectionals in the race. The Rating suggests 93 on the IRD, so he's got a bit to find against Perfectly Good, who rates 90 but showed guts running on late into the placings at Wagga over 2000m. Perfectly Good's trainer Doug Gorrel is in form and the stable's outrunning the market by 72 per cent — Perfectly Good's barrier 9 is a nuisance, but if the pace suits, he could arrive late.
Sunroe's an interesting angle from barrier 2, given that jockey Cory Parish is running 64 per cent above market expectations in recent outings and sits on a hot streak himself. The gelding won a Benchmark 50 at Wagga over 1675m two back but couldn't find legs over this trip last time out, though that was in the Soft 6 going. Now it's Good 4 and a drop back to 1600m — the form suggests a genuine bounce-back chance. Further out, Dunwithya rates 100 on the IRD and the Natalie Jarvis stable's firing at 8 per cent POT in the last 100 runners, so the Orange fourth-up form at Class 1 over 1400m when a close second hints at real class on the quick back-up.
Shortest win price
Roy Kelton (2)
3.80
Most career wins
Boy From Tennessee and Sunroe
5 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Boy From Tennessee · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Roy Kelton · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Dunwithya · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 55%
Perfectly Good · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Career
34: 5-2-4
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Jerilderie
1: 0-0-0
Track Tocumwal
1: 1-0-0
Track Gundagai
4: 1-1-1
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
5: 1-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
6: 1-1-2
Going Soft
13: 3-1-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 52%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 46% Profit on Turnover
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Went home just tamely at Bendigo at $61. Has a tricky draw and a hefty impost. Has plenty to find on latest offerings. On trust.
ILB
Jumped at $61.00 and ran 6th last start at Bendigo. Cannot have under these circumstances.
RP
Not beaten too far when sixth of 12 at Bendigo two weeks ago; has won previously at this course; one to be interested in as he knows how to get the job done.
RSIS
Started at 60/1 and ran 6th last time at Bendigo.
Career
5: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Too good in the small field at Canberra when second-up. Nick Heywood on again and looks up to these.
ILB
Assumed control from the start to win by a margin of 4 1/4L last start at Canberra. Jockey Nick Heywood usually performs well for this stable. Definitely worth considering.
RP
Opened account at the fifth time of asking when winning with a bit to spare at Canberra three weeks ago in a maiden; has displayed improved form on last two starts; strong claims.
RSIS
Went to the front and never looked back to win by a margin of 4 1/4L last run at Canberra. Rates as one of the key chances.
Career
13: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 0-0-1
Track Goulburn
1: 0-1-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1435m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1610m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-2-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 55%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now
AAP
Midfield, great effort running into second Hcp (C1) at Orange. Super fit from racing, one for multiples.
ILB
Was strong late when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last time at Orange but rises in weight. Damon Budler and Natalie Jarvis are usually competitive together. Should race on the speed. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Went close when runner-up over 7f at Orange (handicap) last week; one win to his name was achieved a fair way back.
RSIS
Managed to finish 2nd beaten by 3/4L last start at Orange but will have to carry extra weight. Damon Budler and Natalie Jarvis must be respected together. Expect to see close up at the end.
Career
30: 2-2-4
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tullibigeal
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
6: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
8: 1-0-2
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-0-1
Going Good
15: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
8: 1-0-2
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 72%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 54% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on late into the placings this course over longer assignment. Switching to 1600m. Well into preparation now, capable of making an impact with even luck.
ILB
Threw down a serious challenge last start here and going down in class. Jockey Pierre Boudvillain and trainer Doug Gorrel deserve respect as a team. Down in distance. Watch betting.
RP
A close third two weeks ago upped to 1m2f; brings winning C&D form to the table.
RSIS
Was agonizingly close last start here and taking on a lower class of opponents. Jockey Pierre Boudvillain and trainer Doug Gorrel are consistently competitive together. Down in distance. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
25: 5-2-1
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Grenfell
1: 0-1-0
Track Cobar
1: 0-0-0
Track Gundagai
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
7: 2-1-0
Distance 1600m
10: 1-1-1
Distance 1675m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 2-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 48% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Cory Parish 64% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 64%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 72%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 54% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Cory Parish winning at 38% POT in last 100 rides
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Won a 1675m Benchmark 50 at Wagga Riverside two back. In touch but couldn't find anything when pressured this track over this trip. Can bounce back in this.
ILB
Started at $9.50 and weakened to finish 7th last start at this venue. Can show a better performance this time and will try to take advantage of the draw. Has a good chance.
RP
Finished just behind Lost Ya Sock when seventh 13 days ago; has winning track form; can figure if replicating the best of his form.
RSIS
Started at 17/2 and struggled with the pace when 7th last start at this track. Has the ability to turn things around. Up in weight. Definite claims.
Career
8: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 1-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Scott Jamieson striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -45% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Started $61 when safely held in Benchmark 58 company at Nowra over this journey. Needs to up his game.
ILB
Struggled with the pace when 10th last run at Nowra and up in weight.
RP
Not beaten that far in tenth (5l) when close behind Evokes (Nowra) 12 days ago; is of interest.
RSIS
Didn't threaten when 10th last run at Nowra and going up in weight.
Career
26: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
2: 0-0-0
Track Gundagai
4: 1-1-0
Track Queanbeyan
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -56% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
Closed off late from the tail at Nowra over this trip. First time around Wagga but hasn't been far away and can't discount back at this level.
ILB
At $31.00 made up ground when 4th last run at Nowra but carrying more weight than last time. Gets back and needs luck. Rough chance.
RP
Wasn't beaten that far when fourth (beaten just under 2l, Nowra) back down to this distance 12 days ago; infrequent winner; this line-up contains some strong opposition so looks risky.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and was making up some late ground when 4th last start at Nowra but carrying more weight than last time. Expected to settle towards the rear.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
On a quick back-up. Fair way from the winner but battled home into third at Balranald. Needs to lift again here.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Was competitive when 3rd last run at Balranald but will have to carry extra weight.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. In the money when 3rd last start at Balranald but goes up in weight.
Career
14: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Gundagai
1: 1-0-0
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-0
Track Cootamundra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1460m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Broke maiden at Gundagai 6 Sep. Made the pace but got a stitch late Plate (C1) at Cootamundra over this trip. High speed, perfect draw. Profiles well.
ILB
Was $8.50 and finished 4th last time at Cootamundra but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Has plenty of early speed. Respect the betting.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 3½l in fourth) in a conditions race (Cootamundra) 26 days ago; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; a few rivals look in good form so unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Odds of 15/2 and came in 4th last time at Cootamundra but gets a favourable stall. Should come to hand quickly. Could be in the mix.
Career
20: 1-0-4
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-3
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 98%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 7kg weight here
AAP
Placed this class, track and trip two back. Caught deep and failed to threaten at Deniliquin but look for an improved effort here.
ILB
Started at $3.70 and ordinary performance when 8th last start at Deniliquin and bit of extra work to do with more weight. Displays good tactical speed. Needs a mighty effort to win this.
RP
Eighth beaten 9l over 7f at Deniliquin (handicap) 13 days ago; hardly a model of consistency and just the one win to her name; meeting some horses in good form and there are better alternatives here.
RSIS
At 11/4 unsatisfactory performance when 8th last start at Deniliquin and hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Blaike Mcdougall and Darrell Burnet make a formidable team.
Career
29: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Narrandera
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1460m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
9: 1-0-0
Distance 1675m
2: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 72%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 54% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form at Dist
Negative
Poor strike rate over this distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Upped in distance when ran on okay without troubling this venue. Perhaps a place.
ILB
Started at $31.00 and improved when 5th last start around here. Likely to get back in the field. Struggling this campaign. Unlikely to go close.
RP
Creditable effort to finish fifth, beaten 3l upped to this trip 13 days ago; a winner over C&D; not always shown an awful lot since winning a conditions race at Wagga a year ago; this is competitive and looks risky.
RSIS
Was 30/1 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run here. Has struggled so far in recent runs. Might be ridden for luck.
Career
27: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
8: 2-1-1
Distance 1600m
6: 0-0-1
Distance 1675m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1180m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
16: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 43% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 106%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 51% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Long time since last saluted. Great run at Wagga Riverside 3 Oct then raced in back half and never likely at Wodonga. Look for a better showing.
ILB
At $17.00 clearly outclassed when 7th last start at Wodonga. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Others are more appealing.
RP
In good form prior to backwards step last time out; has won previously at this course; could not manage better than seventh at Wodonga two weeks ago; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role given this looks a decent race.
RSIS
Started 16/1 and well beaten when 7th last run at Wodonga. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
16: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
5: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-1
Track Coonamble
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 116%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 8kg from LS run
AAP
On a quick back-up. Posted a hard fought win in the 3yo+ Cond Hcp at Harden. Unexposed at trip. Back from picnics.
ILB
On a quick back up. Won narrowly by 1/2L last start at Harden and rising in distance. Should jump out and bowl along. Looking at others.
RP
Narrow success in a handicap at Harden at the weekend; she can be taken on with stamina to prove at this new trip.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Fought on gamely when winning by 1/2L last start at Harden and going over more ground. Will be positive in the run early.