Warwick Farm (NSW) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:03 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Warwick Farm (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 28 OctWarwick Farm (NSW)Change

Race 2 — Yarraman Park Stud (Bm78) 2400m · jumps Wed 28 Oct, 3:35 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Warwick Farm for some Saturday afternoon racing on a Soft5 track with fine weather overhead. The race itself is the Yarraman Park Stud Benchmark 78 Handicap over a staying test of 2400m, jumping at 3:35 pm AEDT. Looking at how the win market has shaped up, Savvy Spy finds itself sitting at the head of affairs as the shortest runner in the pack. Right behind in the market order come Nkosi, Knights Armour, Andron, Sonic Bender, and Criteria rounding out the order.

Digging into the form behind those shorter prices reveals some interesting yarns for punters to unpack. Savvy Spy, prepared by G Waterhouse & A Bott and steered by Tim Clark from barrier 4, comes off a strong win at Hawkesbury over 2000m on a soft track where it took all honours in a small field. The added journey should assist this onpace runner, who looks to be going great guns and stays as a major threat. Meanwhile, Andron lines up aiming for a hat-trick after turning on the speed to narrowly prevail over this exact 2400m trip at Rosehill on a soft track last month, handled expertly by Dylan Gibbons for the M, W & J Hawkes stable from barrier 5.

Further down the winMarketOrder, Knights Armour represents an intriguing value hope for trainer Ross Lavis and regular claimer Rebecca Bronett Prag from barrier 2. This backmarker is on a quick back-up after giving a solid chase and running fourth at this venue over 2130m at double-figure odds, suggesting the step up to 2400m here is right up its alley. With speed groups showing Criteria taking up the mantle as the leader alongside onpace runners like Savvy Spy, expect a genuinely run staying affair where the stayers who handle the soft conditions will have every chance to fight out the finish.

Race notes

3yo+,BM78,BM78 HCP,Benchmark 78
SOFT5
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

Savvy Spy (5)

2.25

Most career wins

Knights Armour

10-3-5 from 47 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Knights Armour

Midfield

6Sonic Bender

Onpace

5Savvy Spy
3Andron

Leader

2Nkosi
4Criteria

Knights Armour · Positive
Top Stable
Ross Lavis performing 113% above market expectation
Nkosi · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Andron · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 38% better than Career Avg.
Criteria · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Knights ArmourJ: Rebecca Bronett Prag·T: Ross Lavis258kg7 2 8 5 447: 10-3-5$5.50$2.35

Career

47: 10-3-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
7: 0-1-1
Second-up
6: 0-0-0
Third-up
6: 1-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
3: 1-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
4: 1-0-0
Track Albury
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1460m
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
20: 4-0-3
Going Heavy
8: 2-1-0
Going Soft
18: 3-2-2

Last starts

4Warwick Farm2130m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · GOOD41.76L
5Randwick Kensington1800m7 Oct 2026 · 5UP BM72 HCP · SOFT62.51L
8Warwick Farm1600m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.45L
2Canberra900m4 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.2L
7Moruya920m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)11.5L
6Wagga2000m1 May 2026 · LISTED HCP · GOOD44.4L
6Warwick Farm2400m15 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD410.3L
4Warwick Farm2200m1 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.6L

Insights

Top Stable
Positive
Ross Lavis performing 113% above market expectation
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 74%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 113%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form

Comments

AAP

On a quick back-up. Gave solid chase in a good effort this venue at double-figure odds. Ready for 2400m here and regular claimer on. Value hope.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Crept into 4th last run at this track and can find a nice position from the draw. Stable is in form. Place claims.

Posted respectable effort when beaten just under 2l last week upped to 1m2½f; has winning form at this track; has maintained his consistent level of form; poses a threat as latest run was an encouraging one.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last time at this track and can find a nice position from the draw.

2NkosiJ: Zac Lloyd·T: C Maher156.5kg7 7 4 9 715: 3-1-0$5.00$2.25

Career

15: 3-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Pukekura
1: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Track Te Rapa
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0

Last starts

7Rosehill2400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.21L
9Rosehill1800m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.04L
4Randwick Kensington1550m9 Sept 2026 · 5UP BM72 HCP · GOOD43.2L
7Gosford1200m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)8L
7Newcastle1200m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.9L
8Warwick Farm2200m1 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.9L
6Rosehill1900m14 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · GOOD45.3L
13Randwick2000m28 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · SOFT511.9L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Zac Lloyd 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Well supported when kept finding the line without threatening on a soft deck at Rosehill over this distance. Good enough to figure.

ILB

Odds of $3.60 and folded up in the straight when 7th last start at Rosehill. Has the ability to turn things around and drawn the rails. Displays good tactical speed. Has every chance.

Out of the money, beaten just over 2l, when seventh upped to this trip at Rosehill 14 days ago; Zac Lloyd a good booking; poses a threat.

RSIS

Odds of 13/5 and didn't find the line when 7th last time at Rosehill. Capable of bouncing back and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Strong winning chance.

3AndronJ: Dylan Gibbons·T: M, W & J Hawkes555kg7 5 7 1 19: 3-0-2$10.00$3.40

Career

9: 3-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
1: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
4: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Rosehill2400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT6-0.05
1Hawkesbury1800m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.47
7Canterbury1900m16 Sept 2026 · 5UP BM72 HCP · GOOD46.11L
5Randwick Kensington1800m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.9L
7Canterbury1550m26 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT73.1L
6Newcastle1400m13 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.9L
8Randwick1045m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.3L
8Rosehill900m10 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)12.9L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 38% better than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Gibbons in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 51%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Striving for hat-trick. Turned on the speed and fended off challengers to narrowly prevail over this trip at Rosehill 14 Oct. Well placed to repeat dose.

ILB

Managed to come out on top by the slightest of margins last start at Rosehill. Can't knock the form winning 2 on the bounce. Looks a nice proposition.

Bids to pull off a hat-trick; had several of these behind when landing a handicap over this distance by a nose at Rosehill two weeks ago; holds leading claims.

RSIS

Fought on gamely when winning by a nose last time at Rosehill. Won last 2 in a row. Has a good chance.

4CriteriaJ: Regan Bayliss·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott355kg9 10 2 1 39: 2-1-3$10.00$3.40

Career

9: 2-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-1
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-2

Last starts

3Rosehill2400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT60.68L
1Kembla Grange2000m26 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-1
2Queanbeyan1600m8 Sept 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT50.4L
10Randwick1200m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)7.2L
9Canterbury1900m30 Apr 2025 · 3yo+ · HEAVY819.4L
15Newcastle1600m12 Apr 2025 · BenchMark 68 · GOOD411.85L
3Riccarton Park1400m13 Nov 2024 · 3YO SW+P · GOOD40.3L
1Ashburton1200m3 Nov 2024 · MDN 3YO · GOOD4-0.1

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form

Comments

AAP

Lightly raced 5yo with share of ability. Prominent, showed plenty of ticker in soft going to just go under at Rosehill over this distance. Makes strong appeal.

ILB

Was in the race for a long way when 3rd beaten by 3/4L last run at Rosehill. Has early speed and positions nicely. Looks too tough.

Beaten half a length when behind the reopposing Andron at Rosehill upped to this distance two weeks ago.

RSIS

Couldn't keep the pace going when 3rd last start at Rosehill. Expecting to settle positively. In the placings at every start of late.

5Savvy SpyJ: Tim Clark·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott454kg9 2 7 3 19: 2-2-1$2.25$1.30

Career

9: 2-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
3: 1-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-2-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Hawkesbury2000m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT7-1.2
3Rosehill1800m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.62L
7Canterbury1550m16 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.2L
2Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41L
9Randwick740m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.8L
4Hawkesbury2000m17 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.7L
6Canterbury1900m27 Feb 2026 · 3&4Y BM64 · SOFT64.1L
2Canterbury1550m20 Feb 2026 · 3&4Y BM64 · GOOD41.4L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 50% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 13%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

All honours in the small field at Hawkesbury. Added journey should assist. Going great guns and stays as a major threat.

ILB

Reeled them in when winning last start at Hawkesbury and getting better in recent performances. Should come to hand quickly. In fine form since resuming from a spell. Watch the market moves.

Gained a just over 1l success over 1m2f at Hawkesbury (handicap) two weeks ago; cannot be ignored.

RSIS

Finished well when winning last run at Hawkesbury and showing improvement in recent outings. Should race on the pace. Producing consistent results in recent runs but rising in class.

6Sonic BenderJ: Siena Grima·T: C J Waller654kg8 10 3 4 49: 1-0-1$6.50$2.65

Career

9: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 1-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Rosehill2400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT60.9L
4Illawarra Grange2000m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.1L
3Newcastle1850m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · GOOD34.08L
10Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD48L
8Warwick Farm1208m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)13.1L
4Warwick Farm1200m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.9L
11Caulfield2400m11 Apr 2026 · 3Y-SWP · SOFT76.7L
4Kilmore2007m31 Mar 2026 · BM62 · SOFT62.2L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Gave good account on a soft deck 3yo+ (Bm72) at Rosehill over this trip. Close to another win and can figure again in competitive affair.|

ILB

At $11.00 outpaced some runners late when 4th last time at Rosehill. Knockout chance.

Fair effort when less than a length fourth to Andron upped to this distance at Rosehill two weeks ago; makes limited appeal as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Odds of 10/1 and picked up some ground to run 4th last time at Rosehill.

7Mr FabulousScratched7––––

Career

31: 3-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
6: 1-0-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-1
Distance 3000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1514m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 3-2-3
Going Soft
7: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Rosehill2400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT68.23L
4Rosehill2400m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.14L
4Newcastle2300m19 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.51L
7Randwick2400m5 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD416L
10Rosehill1800m29 Aug 2026 · 3UP MIDWAY BM7270 HCP · GOOD48L
7Kembla Grange1600m15 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD43.2L
4Illawarra Grange1150m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.3L
11Albury2000m20 Mar 2026 · ALBURY CUP · SOFT67.8L

Insights

Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten on a soft deck at Rosehill over this trip at healthy odds. Hard to make a case.

ILB

Struggled with the pace when 10th last time at Rosehill. Has struggled so far this preparation.

Struggled a bit since winning a handicap at Kembla Grange in January; finished tenth of 12 at Rosehill 14 days ago; trainer has been going through a quiet spell; meeting some horses in good form and others more likely.

RSIS

Was well beaten when 10th last run at Rosehill. Has struggled so far of late.

Odds correct as at Wed 28 Oct, 3:40 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Mon 5 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Wed 2 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races