Shortest win price
Bellarata (3)
2.40
Welcome to Ballina for the Ballina Rsl (Bm58) over 1250m on a Soft7 track with fine weather overhead. The punters have sized up this Benchmark 58 affair nicely, installing Bellarata at the head of the win market order. Chasing closely in the early betting are Maurraqa and Toroness, with Vetoed and Calvary rounding out the main fancies for what shapes as an intriguing afternoon yarn on the NSW circuit.
Taking a closer look at the form behind the shorter prices, market leader Bellarata brings solid credentials from a recent third at Ipswich over 1100m in Benchmark 60 grade, where the mare put in a long run from the back. That followed a class win at Lismore over 1210m on soft ground, suggesting Andrew Mallyon can steer her into the thick of it for trainer M J Dunn. Meanwhile, Toroness sits right there in the market conversation after flying home to score at Lismore first-up over 1120m on a Soft7 surface. Trained by Billy Healey and ridden by William Galloway from barrier 4, that fast-finishing effort marks Toroness as a genuine threat despite a heavy track query hanging over the campaign.
Further down the race profile, speed groups point to Maurraqa and Calvary pushing forward to dictate terms from their leader mapping lanes, while Toroness and Bellarata look to stalk from the midfield. For punters digging deeper into the form, Vetoed brings a backmarker map profile for D W Dwane and Zac Wadick, looking to bounce back after a fifth at Lismore over 1320m in similar grade. With a tricky Soft7 surface to navigate and tactics playing a crucial role, it is all set up for a cracking contest.
Shortest win price
Bellarata (3)
2.40
Most career wins
Toroness and Vetoed
4 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Leader
Toroness · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maurraqa · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 10% better than Career Avg.
Bellarata · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 12%
Calvary · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 77%
Career
22: 4-4-2
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1120m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
9: 0-2-1
Going Good
16: 2-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 2-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 38% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
AAP
Off midfield when flew home to score at Lismore first up. Soft tick, heavy query. Sterner test awaits but retains plenty of appeal.
ILB
Finished with purpose when winning last time at Lismore. Will relish the track conditions with 2 wins from 5 attempts on a rain affected track. Should go close.
RP
Got home in front by less than a length over 5½f at Lismore (handicap) last month; chance.
RSIS
Rocketed home when winning last start at Lismore. Proven performer on soft ground. William Galloway takes a large claim. Should go close.
Career
4: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1305m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 10% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 12%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Port Macquarie after lengthy absence. Building fitness. Won only other time at Ballina. Worth another look.
ILB
Odds of $4.20 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Port Macquarie. Giving another chance here and can save some energy from the draw. Highly respected.
RP
Not had much racing - fifth outing here; has won here; first-time blinkers no help when last of ten (Port Macquarie) last month; definitely of interest with a bit more luck as excuses last time (checked) and has proved he knows how to win.
RSIS
At 10/3 didn't attack the line when 10th last time at Port Macquarie. Looking past the last run and drawn the rails. Should jump out and bowl along. Can put away most of these.
Career
8: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 1-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1210m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 12%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Put in a long run from the back at Ipswich. Right in this.
ILB
Improved to place when 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last start at Ipswich. Tracking very well this campaign. One of the punters top hopes.
RP
Turned in a solid effort in defeat 18 days ago, when third at Ipswich over 5½f (handicap); can have a big say.
RSIS
Did well to run 3rd last time at Ipswich. Showing positive results since resuming from a break. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
Career
38: 3-7-6
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Lismore
3: 1-1-0
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 0-1-1
Distance 1410m
2: 0-2-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
19: 1-4-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-2
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Fair performance without threatening in choppy conditions at Lismore at $6. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Started $6.00 and hit the line well when 4th last run at Lismore.
RP
Track has proven suitable before; form has been a bit up and down of late; not beaten that far in fourth (just over 3l) over 6½f at Lismore (handicap) finished just ahead of Stoinka last month; a few rivals look in good form so looks opposable.
RSIS
At 5/1 picked up some late ground when 4th last time at Lismore.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Competitive in Restricted 58 12 Sep. On pace but folded up quickly at Gold Coast. Among the dangers back at country level.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Was $7.50 and average performance when 8th last run at Gold Coast.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. At 13/2 moderate showing when 8th last time at Gold Coast.
Career
20: 2-5-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-1-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1300m
4: 0-2-0
Going Good
13: 1-3-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 11%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Ballina
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Battled home okay in choppy conditions at Sunshine Coast. Void of early speed and needs the breaks to fall his way. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Jumped at $8.50 and chased well when 4th last time at Sunshine Coast and drawn nicely.
RP
Yet to taste defeat at this track, winning on two visits; finished fourth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) at Sunshine Coast two weeks ago; meeting some horses in good form and easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Was 15/2 and ran on into 4th last run at Sunshine Coast and gets a favourable stall.
Career
29: 3-4-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
5: 0-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-0-2
Distance 1100m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
5: 2-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
8: 1-1-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 77%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 27 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Strong win from just off the leaders at Kilcoy. Goes into wider exotics.
ILB
Was eating up the ground late when winning last run at Kilcoy and has a good draw. Displays good tactical speed. Showing improvement in recent outings. Watch the betting.
RP
Scored by 1½l (Kilcoy) last month; despite that Kilcoy success, has questions to answer.
RSIS
Charged home to win last start at Kilcoy and has a positive draw. Adin Thompson usually performs well for the Maryann Brosnan stable. Likely to be well placed early.
Career
17: 1-4-4
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1181m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1320m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-2-2
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 59% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
AAP
Outgunned but did enough for third at $5.50 at Lismore. Not fancied.
ILB
Solid effort to run into 3rd last run at Lismore.
RP
Been a while since she managed only win; comfortably beaten finishing third (6l) at Lismore over 6½f (handicap) when ahead of a couple of these last month.
RSIS
Nice run when placing 3rd beaten by just over 5 1/2L last run at Lismore.
Career
11: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
4: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1115m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1320m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On pace but found little at the business end at Lismore. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Started at $14.00 and peaked on the run when 4th last start at Lismore.
RP
Has won at this track; split a number of these rivals at Lismore over 6½f (handicap) when beaten 6l last month; shown she can get her head in front so one to consider.
RSIS
Odds of 13/1 and started to tire late when 4th last start at Lismore.
Career
53: 5-4-8
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
5: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-0-1
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 0-0-1
Distance 1015m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
12: 2-1-0
Going Firm
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
18: 2-0-3
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 32% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Rolls 50% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 50%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Long winless run. On pace but found little at the business end at Lismore. Has early speed. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Came in 5th last run at Lismore but drawn the rails. Yet to fire this campaign with no placings from 11 runs.
RP
Has won at this course; not disgraced when fifth over 6½f at Lismore (handicap) last month; this is competitive and others appeal more.
RSIS
Came in 5th last run at Lismore but can save some energy from the stall. Struggling recently.
Career
36: 4-7-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-3-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
12: 2-4-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
4: 1-2-0
Distance 1320m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
14: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
7: 2-2-0
Going Soft
15: 2-3-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Never got into the race in rain affected going at Lismore but hard fit, can make her presence felt in this line-up with even breaks.
ILB
Started $3.80 and improved late to finish 5th last run at Lismore. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Watch betting.
RP
Has scored over C&D; hasn't really fired since her success in a handicap at Ballina in June; split a number of these rivals at Lismore over 6½f (handicap) when beaten 7l (fifth of nine) two weeks ago; makes limited appeal with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
Started 11/4 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Lismore. Has a great burst of pace late. Could be in the mix.
Career
21: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
3: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
5: 0-0-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
5: 1-0-0
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
AAP
Long winning drought and was never in the call at Lismore. Lacks early speed and needs the breaks to fall her way. Hard to warm to.
ILB
Mediocre display when 6th last start at Lismore.
RP
Was sixth of nine, beaten 8l, over 6½f at Lismore (handicap), finishing behind three of these rivals last month; is passed over as this could be a hot race.
RSIS
Ordinary performance when 6th last run at Lismore.