Ballina (NSW) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:52 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ballina (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Mon 2 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Mon, 2 NovBallina (NSW)Change

Race 2 — TAB Stayers Cup (Bm58) 2600m · jumps Mon 2 Nov, 3:05 pm AEDT

Race preview

Ballina's got a proper stayers' test on its hands at 3:05 pm AEDT with the Tab Stayers Cup over 2600 metres on a SOFT7 track. This is a Benchmark 58 for three-year-olds and up, and the money's telling a tale: California Grass and Flaming Genesis are the shortest-priced runners, with Think I'm Irish and Nature Boy sharing the next tier. The form line here is spicy because we've got an experienced field with some hard-won miles at distance, and the soft going is going to separate the genuine stayers from the also-rans pretty quick smart.

California Grass shaped best at Grafton over 2200 metres last time when Danny Peisley got him ridden in the back half, and he finished with strong late sectionals to fill the minors in choppy HEAVY8 conditions. The bloke's got form on the wet and comes here off a Grafton third where the comment reckons he handles the mud—not out of this at all. Flaming Genesis is a leader on the map and the Chujo yard has been striking at 34 per cent with their runners of late, but the form reads a bit thin. Sent forward at Grafton last start, he couldn't get the job done when it mattered, and that 10-length flogging at Eagle Farm over 2400 metres the start before that is a heavy query. Nature Boy is an experienced campaigner with a Rating of 79 and owns the one win at Ballina in his record—won only time here, fit from racing, capable of better. Think I'm Irish just missed at Tabulam and ran on late from the back at Gatton, suggesting there's unexplored pace at the trip, and the jockey Ashley Butler is outperforming his career average by 10 per cent over his last 100 rides.

The speedGroups tell us Nature Boy and Flaming Genesis will be fighting for the front, which could set things up nicely for one of the off-midfield runners if those two light it up early. California Grass and Think I'm Irish will both be prowling from the second tier, and if the pace is genuinely hot, the stayer with the finish has genuine claims. Opinion suggests California Grass and Think I'm Irish offer form convergence in a race that'll sort itself out on the back straight—the 2600 at Ballina on a SOFT7 will find out who's got the diesel tank to go the trip.

Race notes

3yo+,BM58,BM58 HCP,Benchmark 58
SOFT7
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

California Grass (3)

2.15

Most career wins

Nature Boy

16-12-22 from 153 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

8Termite

Offmidfield

3California Grass
7Think I'm Irish

Midfield

1Zweig

Leader

5Nature Boy
6Flaming Genesis

Zweig · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
California Grass · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Nature Boy · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 116%
Flaming Genesis · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1ZweigJ: Dylan Turner·T: Vishan Venkaya366kg9 5 7 9 912: 3-1-1$9.00$3.30

Career

12: 3-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Traralgon
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0

Last starts

9Eagle Farm2200m24 Oct 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY1028.2L
9Eagle Farm1800m10 Oct 2026 · BM78 · SOFT513.44L
7Beaudesert1200m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.7L
5Beaudesert1400m27 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)8.4L
9Warrnambool3200m26 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT648.5L
2Warrnambool2800m19 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1L
3Hamilton2800m11 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)23L
4Warrnambool2400m26 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)13.5L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 55%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 41% POT in L100 Runners
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Steps out for third run new stable/region. Failed to threaten in heavy ground at Eagle Farm when second-up at cricket score odds. Look for better here.

ILB

Looked outclassed when 9th last run at Eagle Farm on a heavy rated track. Likely to bounce back and back in an easier grade. Solid claims.

Successful three times from five career runs but shown only moderate recent form; beaten a long way at Eagle Farm over 1m3f (handicap) last month; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Struggled with the pace when 9th last start at Eagle Farm on a heavy surface. Capable of bouncing back and stepping down to a lower level. Has a good chance.

2AyasakiScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now

Comments

AAP

Just missed at Doomben 30 Sep. Sent back to last and safely held in the small field at Eagle Farm. Soft tick, heavy query. Has scope to lift.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Started at $3.40 and below par when 5th last start at Gold Coast but competing in a lower grade. Back to a shorter distance.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. At 12/5 underwhelming when 5th last start at Gold Coast but competing at a lower grade. Back to a shorter trip.

3California GrassJ: Danny Peisley·T: Christos Zintilis160kg8 2 8 7 343: 4-5-3$2.15$1.28

Career

43: 4-5-3

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
3: 2-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1730m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2300m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
22: 1-3-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
16: 3-1-1

Last starts

3Grafton2200m13 Oct 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY81.15L
7Gatton2000m1 Oct 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD42.99L
8Eagle Farm2412m19 Sept 2026 · BM62 · GOOD43.26L
2Gold Coast1730m12 Sept 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD40.92L
8Kembla Grange2400m25 July 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.8L
9Newcastle2200m14 July 2026 · BM64 · SOFT56.4L
9Randwick Kensington2400m10 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT58.1L
5Warwick Farm2200m3 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT74L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -41% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Danny Peisley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 12%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep

Comments

AAP

Ridden in back half, strong late to fill the minors in choppy conditions (Bm58) at Grafton. Handles the wet and not out of this.

ILB

Hit the line well when 3rd last start at Grafton on a heavy rated track and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Should go well.

Not beaten far when third at Grafton over 1m3f (handicap) three weeks ago; consistent lately; has to be considered as recent performance was encouraging.

RSIS

Did well to run 3rd last start at Grafton and has minimal work to do from the stall. Will be trying to topple them late. Major chance.

4Crunch TimeScratched6––––

Career

7: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 1-0-0
Track Dalby
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2180m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Toowoomba2180m3 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD4-2.1
7Eagle Farm1800m23 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD46.63L
4Dalby2000m13 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD33.2L
7Ipswich1710m9 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD410.4L
5Pakenham Synthetic2200m3 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC6L
8Moe1628m3 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY1036.5L
5Pakenham Synthetic1400m15 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC6.7L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Jaden Lloyd current POT is 39% below Career Avg.

Comments

AAP

4 weeks since last run. Impressive performance at Toowoomba. Jaden Lloyd on again. Key player.

ILB

Finished hard to win last start at Toowoomba.

Won by just over 2l, breaking his duck at the seventh time of asking at Toowoomba upped to 1m3f last month in a maiden; has displayed improved form on last two starts; must be considered.

RSIS

Charged home to win last run at Toowoomba.

5Nature BoyJ: Chris Taylor·T: Ms L Selby257kg1 9 10 4 4153: 16-12-22$6.00$2.50

Career

153: 16-12-22

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
7: 0-0-1
Track Coffs Harbour
8: 0-0-2
Track Armidale
22: 3-0-2
Distance 2235m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
5: 0-0-0
Going Firm
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
69: 5-3-9
Going Heavy
17: 3-1-3

Last starts

4Mudgee2000m24 Oct 2026 · BM50 · GOOD44.61L
4Grafton2220m29 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT65.48L
10Coffs Harbour1618m13 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD48.7L
9Taree2000m30 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY916.6L
1Ballina1900m21 June 2026 · BM82 HCP · HEAVY10-3.7
4Tamworth2100m15 June 2026 · BM66 · SOFT56.7L
5Grafton2245m6 June 2026 · BM74 (71) · SOFT67.9L
8Scone2200m31 May 2026 · BM74 · HEAVY821.3L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 116%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Experienced campaigner. Unable to make an impression at Mudgee. Won only other time at Ballina. Fit from racing, capable of better here.

ILB

Jumped at $7.50 and came in 4th last time at Mudgee but will try to take advantage of the draw. Has shown early pace in races to date. Small possibility.

Has winning form at this track; useful at this level; not disgraced when fourth of seven over 1m2f at Mudgee (handicap) last month; more than capable if on song so in the mix.

RSIS

Started at 13/2 and finished 4th last run at Mudgee but back to a rise in trip. Chris Taylor is a suitable booking and drawn nicely.

6Flaming GenesisJ: Noriyuki Masuda·T: D Chujo656kg4 4 4 10 613: 1-0-1$4.80$2.15

Career

13: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
3: 1-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2060m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2150m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Grafton2200m13 Oct 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY84.68L
10Eagle Farm2400m5 Sept 2026 · BM78 · SOFT520.4L
4Beaudesert2450m21 Aug 2026 · BM60 · GOOD43.6L
4Ipswich2150m7 Aug 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD45.5L
4Grafton1700m19 July 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT51.9L
5Ballina1021m21 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(10)3.6L
8Grafton970m6 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)6.3L
3Ballina1900m9 Dec 2025 · BM58 · GOOD32.3L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 34% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Grafton. Leader. Soft tick, heavy query. Worth another look.

ILB

Jumped at $2.80 and gave away some ground when 6th last run at Grafton. Looking past the last run. Should muster plenty of early toe. Stamps its reason for consideration.

Beaten 4½l 20 days ago at 9-5 when sixth over 1m3f at Grafton (handicap), behind California Grass.

RSIS

Odds of 9/5 and looked outclassed when 6th last start at Grafton on a heavy surface. Giving another chance here. Has plenty of early pace. Strong competitor.

7Think I'm IrishJ: Ashley Butler·T: B Robinson455kg11 9 2 5 733: 2-4-7$5.00$2.25

Career

33: 2-4-7

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1560m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1720m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1750m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
14: 2-0-4
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
11: 0-1-2

Last starts

7Ipswich2190m30 Oct 2026 · CL3 · SOFT55.4L
5Gatton2000m16 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT52.1L
2Tabulam1720m3 Oct 2026 · BM450.41L
9Beaudesert1400m17 Sept 2026 · 0 - 55 · GOOD36.52L
11Quirindi2000m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD313.1L
2Dubbo2200m13 July 2026 · BM58 · SOFT52.9L
9Port Macquarie1506m4 July 2026 · BM58 · SOFT75.5L
4Goulburn1500m22 June 2026 · BM58 · SOFT62L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 10% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Ben Robinson striking at just 2%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Just missed at Tabulam 3 Oct. Ran on late from the back at Gatton. Unexposed at trip and place best.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Mediocre display when 7th last time at Ipswich. Will be trying to topple them late. Rates as one of the key chances.

Held in seventh over 1m3f at Ipswich (handicap) on Friday; has lacked consistency of late and infrequent winner; stepping up in trip and others more persuasive.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Mediocre performance when 7th last run at Ipswich. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Hard to see finishing out of the placings.

8TermiteJ: Sariah Champkin·T: Grant Forge555kg11 9 8 4 455: 1-4-2$23.00$4.80

Career

55: 1-4-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Beaudesert
3: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
15: 0-4-0
Distance 1805m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2245m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
30: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

4Gatton2000m16 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT51.85L
4Sunshine Coast2245m2 Oct 2026 · BM60 · GOOD49.5L
8Grafton2230m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD49.86L
9Grafton1600m7 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD48.9L
11Grafton1410m29 Aug 2026 · BM50 · SOFT58.2L
5Ballina1590m21 June 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY105L
7Gold Coast1000m2 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)5L
9Gold Coast Poly2000m29 Nov 2025 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC15.2L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Sariah Champkin current POT is 25% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Struggling
Negative
Doesn’t look to be going well

Comments

AAP

Made late rally from the back at Gatton. Rise to 2600m a new challenge. Place.

ILB

Jumped at $61.00 and made some ground when 4th last run at Gatton. Does take a while to get into stride. Needs significant improvement.

Creditable fourth, beaten just under 2l, of nine at Gatton over 1m2f (handicap) when ahead of Think I'm Irish last month; achieved just the one win; others are preferred with new trip an unknown.

RSIS

Was 60/1 and moved ahead of some to finish 4th last run at Gatton. Might have to make up considerable ground.

Odds correct as at Mon 2 Nov, 3:10 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 4 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races